As college baseball marches toward home runs, Vanderbilt is falling behind

In the SEC, the home run is now king.

Look no further than this season for proof: In 2023, the top five teams in the league in home runs made it to super regionals. The top three teams in the league in long balls just so happen to be the three playing in the College World Series — LSU (133), Florida (129) and Tennessee (125).

Ten SEC teams made it to an NCAA regional. But four of the five outside the top group in home runs were dispatched in their regionals. Only Kentucky, the last-place team in the league with 54 home runs, even made it to super regionals, but the Wildcats were promptly swept by LSU by a combined score of 22-3.

Although conventional wisdom holds that relying on home runs is not a good strategy in the cavernous Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska, where the College World Series is held, teams still must reach the CWS to actually win it. Lately, teams are advancing by way of much more hitter-friendly ballparks.

This is the world in which Vanderbilt baseball has found itself. Despite a 19-11 record in SEC play and winning the SEC Tournament, the Commodores were bounced in regionals yet again and seem as far as ever from getting back to the top. Although the Commodores still have a top-tier pitching staff, the offense has lagged behind the last two seasons. At the center of the issue is a distinct lack of the long ball.

How VandyBoys lag behind

Vanderbilt and Kentucky were the lone teams in the SEC to hit two dubious distinctions: each had just a single player with double-digit home runs, and each did not have a single player hit 15 or more home runs. The Commodores hit 76 home runs all season compared to 77 in 2022, but that total was good for ninth in the SEC in 2022. In 2023, it was 13th.

In the past 11 seasons, Vanderbilt has had just two players hit more than 15 home runs: JJ Bleday in 2019 and Carter Young in 2021. Four SEC teams had three or more players with more than 15 home runs in 2023 alone; Florida had five such players.

As the college game has moved further toward the home run, Vanderbilt has fallen behind.

This can be particularly pressing in the postseason. In the NCAA Tournament, teams give more innings to their best pitchers. As the pitching quality improves, it becomes harder to string hits together, increasing the importance of being able to score multiple runs with one swing.

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How size might shape Vanderbilt's power decline

Height doesn't predict someone's ability to be a power hitter, but it does help. Of the 14 SEC players who hit 18 or more home runs, all were at least 6 feet tall, and 11 of the 14 were at least 6-foot-2.

Being tall was less a prerequisite further down the list. Of 13 SEC players who hit between 15 and 17 home runs, just four were 6-foot-2 or taller. But physicality still mattered. Of 12 players in the conference who hit 15 or more homers and were shorter than 6-foot-2, 10 were listed at 200 pounds or more. The lone exceptions were Alabama's Colby Shelton, who hit 25 homers listed at 6-foot, 185 pounds, and Florida's Cade Kurland, who hit 16 homers listed at 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds.

Vanderbilt's 2023 roster consisted of just four hitters listed at 6-foot-2 or taller, and three of those four redshirted. Of 16 hitters under 6-foot-2, seven of them were listed at 200 pounds or more, one of whom redshirted.

Of 10 players who received at least 100 plate appearances for the 2023 Commodores, none were 6-foot-2 or taller and four were at least 200 pounds. Those four players combined for 33 home runs; the other 11 players on the team combined for 43.

Vanderbilt has long built its offense around smaller, athletic players who can play up the middle rather than targeting physicality. But that's a particularly stark contrast with the pitching staff, where 13 of 17 on the 2023 team were listed at 6-foot-3 or taller, and 15 of the 17 were listed as at least 200 pounds. That physicality has long helped Commodores pitchers increase their fastball velocity, but the same upside may not exist on the hitting side.

Some reinforcements may be coming in the form of the 2023 recruiting class. The Commodores have four committed hitters who are 6-foot-3 or taller, and though some may be lost to the draft, getting as many to campus as possible would help. Braden Holcomb, George Lombard, Matt Ossenfort and Colin Barczi could each inject more physical upside into an offense that sorely needs it. But with RJ Schreck, the lone double-digit home run hitter, departing, Vanderbilt may need to turn to the transfer portal to solve its power problem.

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This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Why Vanderbilt baseball's home run outage is a major cause for concern