How Cody Bellinger's start to 2023 compares to his MVP season
How Bellinger's start to 2023 compares to his MVP season originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
When the Cubs inked Cody Bellinger to a one-year, $17.5 million deal this offseason, the message was clear that an effort to give the former NL MVP and Rookie of the Year a fresh start with a new organization was worth the price and potential risk.
Through the first month-plus of the 2023 season, the measured gamble appears to be paying off for the Cubs' front office.
Bellinger has shown more than just shades of his old self, hitting .303/.377/.596 through 26 games, with seven home runs and six doubles.
The hot start shows a stark contrast to Bellinger's last three seasons, plagued by injury and impacted by a changing role on the Dodgers
The struggles were most apparent in 2021, when Bellinger was one of the lightest-hitting players in the MLB, with a .165 batting average and 44 OPS+ across 95 games with the Dodgers, indicating Bellinger was 66% worse than a league average hitter.
His metrics slightly improved in 2022, but not enough for the Dodgers to tender the former face of the franchise a contract at the season's end.
Bellinger hit .210/.265/.389 with 19 home runs, 27 doubles and 14 steals in 144 games in 2022, good enough for a 79 OPS+.
While last year saw a slight return to form in terms of Bellinger's power capabilities, he also posted a career-low 6.9% walk rate and a career-high 27.3% strikeout rate, hindering his overall offensive numbers.
Just a short time ago, the Cubs centerfielder was arguably the best hitter in baseball.
Entering the league with a blistering start in 2017, Bellinger's 39 home runs, 143 OPS+ and 64 walks earned him a top 10 finish in league MVP voting, the NL Rookie of the Year award and an All-Star appearance.
After appearing to slightly come back to earth in 2018 as pitchers adjusted, Bellinger still appeared in all 162 games, totaling 60 extra-base hits and swiping 14 bags alongside a 120 OPS+.
The following season, Bellinger embarked on one of the most impressive offensive seasons in recent memory.
Refining his one notable weakness of strikeouts, Bellinger reduced his strikeout rate from nearly 24% to just 16.3%, while posting a career high 12.7% barrel rate.
The result was an NL MVP award for the then-Dodgers star, who scored 121 times and hit 47 home runs alongside 15 steals and 115 RBI.
While Bellinger's 2020 season showed a significant drop in production from the MVP highs of 2019, many players across the MLB showed diminished production levels in the pandemic-shortened 60-game season, played in empty stadiums up until the NLCS.
Bellinger still put out above-average production in 2020, with 22 of his 51 knocks going for extra bases to help supplement a .239 batting average and .333 on-base percentage.
The Dodgers looked to have their MVP back in the playoffs in 2020, as he posted a 1.179 OPS in the NLDS against the Padres before collecting several critical extra-base hits facing the Braves in the NLCS, none bigger than a go-ahead Game 7 blast.
After a majestic bat flip and trot around the bases at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Bellinger elbow-bumped both AJ Pollock and Enrique Hernandez on his way to the dugout, later learning he had dislocated his oft-injured right shoulder while doing so.
Bellinger also battled back from a hairline fracture in his left fibula to start 2021, perhaps also contributing to his greatly diminished production in a year with career lows across the board.
When it comes to 2023, Bellinger's career renaissance can largely be drawn to reducing strikeouts, hitting more line drives and of course, a dose of luck as well.
The former MVP's 15.8% strikeout rate is currently the best mark of his career, and has paid dividends in making Bellinger a much tougher out than in the past few years.
While Bellinger had an uncharacteristically high 29.9% line drive rate during his 2019 MVP campaign, his 24.1% rate heading into Wednesday night's action is the second-best mark of his career.
Although diminished strikeouts, increased walks and more line drives have all contributed to Bellinger's blazing start, there is one metric that indicates regression may be on the way.
According to Baseball Savant, Bellinger is compiling the lowest hard-hit rate of his career thus far, hitting the ball hard just 33.7% of the time, well below his career rate of 40.9%.
Additionally, Bellinger's .303 BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is at .303, the second-best mark of his career and 25 points north of his career average, implying that Bellinger could be hitting the ball into just the right spot more often than normal.
The return to form has not gone unnoticed by his teammates, with Ian Happ praising specifically Bellinger's performance against left-handed pitchers this season on 670 The Score's Holmes & Bernstein.
"His ability to, left-on-left pull a ball in the air, and also be super disciplined is really really impressive," Happ said.
While Bellinger's abilities to pull the ball against southpaws have awed his teammate, it was a double against Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray in spring training that stuck with Happ as the two continue their first season as teammates.
Bellinger has gone deep four times against lefties thus far in 2023, posting a 1.090 OPS in 43 plate appearances.
Despite some reason suggesting that Bellinger will regress, the former MVP's measurable improvements in walk and strikeout rates and improved line drive rate make the Cubs' acquisition of the outfielder one of the best moves of the offseason one month into the year.
