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New coaches lure transfers and bettors with college football season one month away

Lance Pugmire, USA TODAY
·6 min read

Call it sudden impact.

Wednesday began the one-month countdown to the college football season. And fierce action is already underway at the betting windows and online sports apps.

The heaviest money at Las Vegas SuperBook focuses on USC — which added new coach Lincoln Riley and his Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams — and LSU, which recruited coach Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame with a 10-year, $95 million contract.

Vice president Jay Kornegay said Las Vegas SuperBook has taken the most future-book money on the Trojans, who are currently a 25/1 underdog to win their first national title since 2004.  Second-choice LSU is 60/1, slotting them as the ninth overall favorite to win the championship.

Pac-12 football coach rankings 2022:Lincoln Riley, Kyle Whittingham, Chip Kelly lead list

Caleb Williams followed former Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley to USC.
Caleb Williams followed former Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley to USC.

The Tigers were fortified by eight transfers following Kelly’s high-profile move, including three defensive backs — two from rival Arkansas.

The third-most popular pick is the 100/1 Miami Hurricanes, who also have a new leader in former Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal. Miami gained 11 transfers, four of whom are potential starters.

Select college football championship odds at Tipico Sportsbook

  • Alabama at +185

  • Ohio State at +320

  • Georgia at +330

  • Clemson at 10/1

  • Texas A&M and USC at 20/1

  • Miami and LSU at 70/1

Feud fuels hype

Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher stirred robust excitement for the season by responding forcefully to a claim by Alabama’s Nick Saban in May that the SEC rival had “bought every player” through NIL deals to assemble its No. 1 recruiting class.

Fisher roared back, assailing Saban’s comments.

“It’s despicable that a reputable head coach can come out and say this when he doesn’t get his way or things don't go his way,” Fisher said. “The narcissist in him doesn’t allow those things to happen. It's ridiculous when he's not on top.”

Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher talks during SEC Media Days on July 21.
Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher talks during SEC Media Days on July 21.

MORE: Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher addresses Nick Saban feud, College Football Playoff expansion

Although the coaches calmed any remaining feud during SEC Media Days, their Oct. 8 matchup in Tuscaloosa is now the most anticipated of the season.

Alabama, with returning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young at quarterback, is a -145 favorite to win the SEC.

SEC title odds 

  • Alabama at -145

  • Georgia at +150

  • Texas A&M at 13/1

  • Tennessee at 40/1

Ohio State's Heisman contender

Looming next to the Crimson Tide in pursuit of the national title is Ohio State and its Heisman-contender quarterback C.J. Stroud. Coach Ryan Day has only lost one Big Ten conference game in his career, and his offense has receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who torched Utah with 347 yards in the Rose Bowl.

The SuperBook reports Ohio State generated the second-most number of bets.

Many bettors are banking on the fact that the Buckeyes have a clearer path to the four-team  College Football Playoff than any of the SEC teams. They are a more talented unit than a similar conference favorite Clemson in the ACC.

Heisman Trophy odds

  • C.J. Stroud (quarterback, Ohio State) at 2/1

  • Bryce Young (quarterback, Alabama) at 7/2

  • Caleb Williams (quarterback, USC) at 8/1

  • Will Anderson Jr. (linebacker, Alabama) at 20/1

  • Dillon Gabriel (quarterback, Oklahoma) at 25/1

(Williams’ cause is aided by the transfer of Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison, who had 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns last season at Pitt.)

Pitt's potential payout

University of Pittsburgh saw quarterback Kenny Pickett go to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2022 NFL draft and replaced him with USC’s dislodged starter Kedon Slovis.

A SuperBook bettor placed a $1,000 wager on the Panthers to win the national title at 500/1 odds.

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MAKING MOVES: All-American WR Jordan Addison leaves Pittsburgh, will transfer to Southern Cal

Pitt’s Sept. 1 season opener against West Virginia is the most heavily bet game at Caesars. The Panthers are favored by -7.5 points.

“We were obviously high on Pitt from the beginning, we probably opened their season win total the highest in the market,” said Caesars Sportsbook lead college football trader Joseph Feazel. “When we opened up this game, Addison was still on Pitt. We had one pretty respected bettor (on) the Pitt line, and it drove the price up. Pitt’s going to do well this year with Kedon Slovis. This is his time to shine, and Pitt has a great defense. We have high expectations for them still.”

USC quarterback Kedon Slovis throws a pass against Arizona State at Sun Devil Stadium on Nov. 6, 2021.
USC quarterback Kedon Slovis throws a pass against Arizona State at Sun Devil Stadium on Nov. 6, 2021.

Season opening point spreads 

Aug. 27: Nevada -12.5 vs. New Mexico State

As those first kickoffs near on Aug. 27, Caesars Sportsbook reports favorable line moves for New Mexico State, which has shrunk from -14.5 against Nevada.

Aug. 27: Illinois -10.5 vs. Wyoming 

Illinois is the other favorable line opening week. The Fighting Illini are comfortably favored thanks to the support of 95% of the game's dollars wagered on them.

Sept. 1: Tennessee -31. 5 vs. Ball State 

This game has drawn heavy betting traffic. Caesars reported its third-greatest handle is on Tennessee over Ball State in the most lopsided early spread. Thanks to the support of 99% of dollars wagered, the Volunteers have bulged from 28.5-point favorites.

Sept. 3: Utah -1.5 vs. Florida

Tennessee's SEC rival Florida received nowhere near that level of support in its home game against Utah at “The Swamp”. After opening as a -1 favorite, the Gators are now underdogs thanks to 86% of total dollars bet on the Utes.

“We opened it up at Florida -1 because it’s a tough place to go into in August and early September with all that humidity,” Caesars' lead college football trader Joseph Feazel said. “It’s not going to be easy, but we’re really high on Utah. We have them and USC as Pac-12 co-favorites. This is going to be one of the best games of that week (and) bettors have caught on to how much potential this Utah group has.”

Kyle Whittingham holds up the Pac-12 championship trophy after Utah's victory over Oregon in December.
Kyle Whittingham holds up the Pac-12 championship trophy after Utah's victory over Oregon in December.

Sept. 3: Georgia -17.5 vs. Oregon

In the other Pac-12-SEC matchup on Sept. 3, the spread favoring Georgia has risen by nearly a field goal.

Sept. 3: Mississippi State -16.5 vs. Memphis 

The most volatile point spread is connected to this opener. The Tigers pulled off an upset victory last season, but bettors expect an overwhelming response and moved up the opening -8 spread more than a touchdown since.

“This was the line we definitely opened up too low,” said Feazel. “There’s just a lot of faith in this Mississippi State program, especially with how much respect the SEC gets. I think it’s moved a little bit too far from where it should be. It should be closer to 14. But once some bettors start seeing a line steaming up, they tag on that and that piling on is why we’re at 16.5.”

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football odds: 2022 season kickoff just a month away