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Chris Perkins: The numbers say Dolphins must make strategic/philosophical changes in 2024

chris perkins, south florida sun sentinel
·4 min read
28

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — The numbers promote the image of the 2023 Miami Dolphins as a team that bullied the NFL’s weaker teams and shrunk against teams their own size.

I did some research (anecdotal, not scientific) on how the 2023 Dolphins fared against playoff teams compared to how other teams in the postseason fared against playoff teams.

It’s not good.

The numbers show how far the Dolphins are behind their fellow playoff teams, in other words, the opponents they have to beat to get to a Super Bowl.

The numbers also highlight how Miami consistently feasted on weaker teams and consistently got beaten by strong teams.

For example, the Dolphins finished 11-7 this season, including their 26-7 wild-card round loss at Kansas City.

Miami was 10-1 against non-playoff teams, outscoring those opponents by an average score of 36-18 during that span.

Miami was 1-6 against playoff teams, getting outscored by an average score of 32-16.

Last season the Dolphins were 2-6 against playoff teams, meaning they are 3-12 (.200) against playoff teams over the past two seasons.

I’m not trying to bury general manager Chris Grier or coach Mike McDaniel with these facts. Not at all.

I genuinely like both men professionally and personally.

And I don’t think either should be fired.

I’m just wondering whether anyone in the Dolphins’ building understands the gravity of the situation and that changes must be made and that the organization can’t continue doing the same things in Year 3 under McDaniel that it did in Years 1 and 2.

It’s not working.

This situation is dire.

The Dolphins, according to the numbers, barely qualify as a playoff team.

Here are the numbers during their seven games against playoff opponents:

Miami went 1-6 (.143 winning percentage) against teams that made the playoffs this season;

The Dolphins scored 113 points while allowing 223 (-110 point differential);

Miami averaged 16 points per game while their opponents averaged 32.

For comparison, here’s how the other AFC playoffs teams fared vs. fellow playoff teams (scores have been rounded off; numbers are through divisional playoffs):

Buffalo: 6-2 (.750), 233/160 (+73), 29-20;

Baltimore: 6-3 (.667), 302/164 (+138), 30-16;

Pittsburgh: 5-4 (.556), 147/182 (-35), 16-20;

Cleveland: 4-4 (.500), 159/215 (-56), 20-27;

Houston: 3-4 (.429), 176/176 (0), 25-25;

Kansas City: 3-4 (.429), 147/134 (+13), 21-19.

And how the NFC playoff teams vs. fellow playoff teams:

Philadelphia: 6-3 (.667), 206/223 (-17), 23-25;

San Francisco: 6-3 (.667), 251/167 (+84), 28-19;

Detroit: 5-3 (.625), 177/179 (-2), 22-22;

Green Bay: 4-4 (.500), 204/191 (+13), 26-24;

Dallas: 3-5 (.375), 191/223 (-32), 24-28;

Tampa Bay: 2-6 (.250), 175/195 (-20), 22-24;

L.A. Rams: 2-6 (.250), 157/203 (-46), 20-25.

Some observations:

— The Dolphins, who haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season, have the worst record (1-6) among playoff teams against fellow playoff teams (Tampa Bay and the Rams are next at 2-6);

— The Dolphins average the fewest points per game against playoff teams, slightly behind Pittsburgh (16.1 points per game vs. 16.3 ppg). That’s a real knock against the Dolphins’ high-scoring offense;

— The Dolphins allow the most points per game (32) followed by Dallas (28);

— The Dolphins have the worst point differential (-110) followed by Cleveland (-56);

— The Dolphins have the widest average losing margin (16 ppg) followed by Cleveland (7 ppg);

— Three of the five teams that did best against playoff teams are playing in the AFC and NFC Championship games (Baltimore, San Francisco and Detroit).

The numbers make you wonder whether the Dolphins are doing worse offensively, where they only manage 16 points per game against playoff teams, a total that hardly gives you a chance to win, or defensively, where they allow a whopping 32 points per game, a total that hardly gives you a chance to win.

The numbers also make you wonder whether the Dolphins squandered valuable resources last season and whether that trend will continue into 2024.

Miami is regarded as having one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.

And remember, the Dolphins had quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy for all 18 games (including playoffs) this past season.

This is a team that’s sold off part of its future by trading away first-round picks for superstar players, is about $40 million over the salary cap for next season, and yet is only 20-16 over the past two years with no playoff wins, and was 3-4 in December and January.

The Super Bowl window might not be open past 2024. That’ll be the third year.

To me, everyone is on the hot seat this season.

Grier.

McDaniel.

Tagovailoa.

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

Everyone.

Dolphins owner Steve Ross has put too many resources into this team for such poor results.

This can’t continue in 2024.

The Dolphins, under Grier and McDaniel, must make changes offensively and defensively next season.

I just hope someone in the organization understands this before it’s too late.