Chiefs vs. Ravens same game parlay: Here's a +575 bet for the AFC conference championship
The AFC championship game will feature two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL between the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and the Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson. In 2023, Mahomes was named the NFL's MVP for the second time in his career. Now, a year later, Jackson is likely going to be the MVP for the second time in his career.
What's shocking though is that both of these teams have arguably leaned more on their defense this year than anything else. As great as Jackson and Mahomes have been, the Chiefs' and Ravens' defenses have been two of the best in the league all season. The Ravens allowed only six rushing touchdowns the entire season, which led the NFL. The Chiefs finished fourth in the NFL in pass yards allowed. Plus, both the Ravens and Chiefs were two of only seven teams in the league to surrender fewer than 20 passing touchdowns.
While the Baltimore Ravens have appeared to be the more dominant team all season, the Chiefs know what it's like to reach the Super Bowl already. They know what it takes to take down the best teams in the league. The Ravens haven't even reached the conference championship game since 2012. Maybe that will be enough for the Chiefs to push their way into their second consecutive Super Bowl. Or maybe the Ravens will walk all over Mahomes and company, just like they have to everyone else.
Regardless of the outcome, here are some bets we like for the AFC championship on Sunday. Odds and lines via DraftKings.
Been a minute: What was the world like when the Detroit Lions last made the NFC championship game?
Chiefs-Ravens same game parlay for the AFC championship
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson anytime TD, Travis Kelce under 62.5 receiving yards, Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 16.5 receiving yards (+525).
Lamar Jackson anytime TD (+105)
The Chiefs just surrendered two rushing touchdowns to Josh Allen and the Bills a week ago. Now they face a more potent runner in Lamar Jackson who is fresh off scoring two rushing touchdowns of his own against the Houston Texans? Take that every day of the week.
The Chiefs have only faced serious rushing threats at quarterback three times all year. Once was Week 3 against Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. Justin Fields never scored in that game. The other three were Week 11 against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles, Week 14 against Josh Allen and the Bills, and the divisional round against the Bills again. The Chiefs surrendered five rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in those games. Baltimore may not have the tush push in their back pocket like Philly did, but Baltimore still has a myriad of goal-line plays designed to get Jackson into the endzone. Count on him to score at least once on Sunday.
Travis Kelce under 62.5 receiving yards (+100)
It's been no secret that Travis Kelce has not been as good in 2023 as we've grown accustomed to in years past. However, Kelce's re-emergence against Buffalo in the divisional round may fool some people into thinking this line is rather low for the nine-time Pro Bowler. It's not.
The fact is, the Baltimore Ravens have only surrendered 60 receiving yards to an opposing tight end twice all year. The tight ends in question? San Francisco's George Kittle and Jacksonville's Evan Engram. Those are both teams with multiple weapons on the outside. The Chiefs have Rashee Rice...and that's it. Furthermore, both the 49ers and Jaguars were playing from behind for most of their games against Baltimore. If the Chiefs' play according to plan, they should be close as the game comes down the wire.
Prior to the playoffs, Kelce had not reached 60 yards through the air in three straight weeks. He likely won't do so here as linebacker Roquan Smith will likely follow Kelce all around the field. He has been one of the best cover linebackers in the NFL.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
As inconsistent as MVS has been, he's still getting a decent number of looks from Mahomes. Would you be surprised to hear that he's received at least three targets in four of the Chiefs' last seven games? That kind of usage for just 17 yards seems low. Of course, the payout comes with the risk that Valdes-Scantling doesn't catch any of his looks, which has happened in one of those last seven games. However, nearly half of all MVS's targets this season (20 of 42) have come when the Chiefs were trailing.
The Ravens are a great team, and it's easy to assume that the Chiefs will be trailing at some point in the second half of Sunday's game. That is when we can expect MVS to get his looks. Just one reception could be enough to get Valdes-Scantling over 17 yards, but two receptions is practically a guarantee that he'll get over that mark. There was just one game all year where MVS hauled in two passes and still finished under 17 receiving yards. That came all the way back in Week 2. In fact, there have only been two such games in MVS's entire career.
As the Ravens focus most of their defensive efforts toward stopping Kelce and Rashee Rice, MVS should get more opportunities than we're used to seeing. 16.5 yards seems dreadfully low for arguably the Chiefs' No. 2 option at wideout. Justin Watson's line is higher at 17.5 and he posted more receiving yards this year (460) than MVS (315), but Valdes-Scantling has been used more in recent weeks than Watson. Watson has just one game with three or more targets in his last four games. MVS was used more last weekend against the Bills, meaning when push comes to shove and the Chiefs need a play, they're more likely to turn to Valdes-Scantling than Watson.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Chiefs-Ravens same game parlay: +575 SGP for AFC championship game
