Chargers’ keys to victory over Broncos in Week 6
The Chargers return to SoFi Stadium on Monday night for a showdown with the 2-3 Broncos, who enter the game with three extra days of rest after playing the Colts last Thursday.
Here are the keys to Los Angeles winning this game:
Find a way into the backfield
Khalil Mack and company failed to sack Jacoby Brissett last Sunday, as the usually statuesque veteran was able to slip out of the clutches of defenders on multiple occasions. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin are, to their credit, a very good tackle duo. Denver is not so lucky, especially after losing Garett Bolles for the season with a broken leg. The Broncos are slated to start Billy Turner and Calvin Anderson at tackle on Monday unless Cameron Fleming starts again as Turner continues to rehab from an offseason knee injury. Which spot any of them will be playing seems to be anyone’s guess right now, although I would assume Turner starts on the right side if he plays. Either way, that’s at least one backup with another backup or a player making his season debut on the other side. Russell Wilson is not immune to pressure; most quarterbacks aren’t. Make Denver keep extra blockers in and move the pocket to avoid getting Wilson’s jersey dirty.
Pass game contributors
Keenan Allen seems like he’s on track to miss his fifth consecutive game with a hamstring injury, but there’s a chance he plays after returning to practice in a limited capacity on Thursday and Friday. If he goes, it’ll be a huge boost to LA’s offense, considering that Patrick Surtain II will likely be matched up with Mike Williams for most of the game. Surtain has continued his ascension to the upper echelon of cornerback play in his second season, forcing Justin Herbert to turn his eyes away from Williams more often than not in this one. The Chargers will need someone to step up, whether Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter, Gerald Everett, or another player.
Lock up Courtland Sutton
If Denver takes away Herbert’s favorite target from this season, the Chargers need to respond by doing the same to Wilson. Per ESPN, Sutton has 17 more targets than any other Bronco, with Javonte Williams still third on the team in targets despite missing last week’s game. Sutton’s reception total of 29 is equal to the number of targets the second option Jerry Jeudy has received all season. Bottom line: Wilson trusts Sutton and not much else so far in Denver. Whether that’s bracket coverage, trusting JC Jackson to bounce back and follow him, or leaving him in the hands of the undersized Asante Samuel Jr., Los Angeles needs to limit Sutton on Monday if they want to lock up Denver’s offense.
Keep the run game going
Last week’s 238-yard explosion against the Browns was a positive sign for Austin Ekeler and the running game, but it came against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Denver gives up 112.4 ground yards per game, putting them in the middle of the pack as a yardage defense. Still, there’s reason for optimism, as the game film shows the offensive line beginning to gel as they settle into their rest-of-season lineup. That’s positive news for Ekeler, who is averaging the most yards per carry on perfectly-blocked runs in the league this season but is among the worst on plays with non-perfect blocking. Outside of Ekeler, Joshua Kelley has repeatedly shown that he’s the team’s best RB2 option. Get him another ten carries and keep things rolling.
Wrap up the rushing attack
On defense, the Chargers have a tackling problem, namely at safety outside of Derwin James. LA benched Nasir Adderley against Cleveland for his poor performance as a tackler, only for fill-in Alohi Gilman to miss two tackles last Sunday. The spot next to James was supposed to be earmarked for third-round pick JT Woods, but he missed enough tackles in the preseason that the Chargers have not yet been confident enough to play him for a single snap in the regular season. Per PFF, Los Angeles has missed 50 tackles in total, tied for fourth most in the league through five games. This has all led to Los Angeles allowing a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry this season. The Bolts catch a break by missing Javonte Williams on Monday, but Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray have both made a living on being physical backs. Finishing plays and limiting Denver’s progress on the ground will force the Broncos into tough third downs, an area where they are currently converting just 30.56% of the time, third worst in the NFL.
Capitalize on small mistakes
Los Angeles commits roughly five penalties a game, seventh best in the NFL, while Denver commits 8.8, tied for the worst mark in the league. That’s at least 15 to 20 yards of leeway and realistically more like 30 to 35 when you look at the penalty yardage numbers: Denver is giving away 67 yards per game on penalties, while LA is losing 35.6 per game. Neither team turns the ball over at a rampant rate, which makes capitalizing on smaller-scale mistakes much more important. The Broncos have shown a penchant for giving yards away and managing the game poorly. The Chargers must make them pay for those mistakes if they want to do away with their decade-long Monday Night Football curse. The team is just 3-8 in their ESPN appearances since 2012.
