What are the chances the Bears earn the No. 1 pick? Here's where the odds stand
What are the chances the Bears earn the No. 1 pick? Here's where the odds stand originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
There are two more games left in the NFL season until we know where each team can pick their next players in the 2024 NFL draft.
Right now, the Bears have the rights to the No. 1 pick by way of owning the Panthers' first-round pick. They also own the No. 8 pick from their 6-9 record this season.
What are the chances the Bears secure the first pick in the draft? ESPN analytics recently provided new probabilities.
Chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick
Bears via Panthers 96%
Cardinals 3%
Commanders <1%
Patriots <1%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 28, 2023
Chance to earn a top-2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, per ESPN Analytics
Bears via Panthers 99%
Cardinals 64%
Commanders 24%
Patriots 12%
Giants <1%
Chargers <1%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 28, 2023
Chance to earn a top-3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, per ESPN Analytics
Bears via Panthers >99%
Cardinals 85%
Commanders 68%
Patriots 43%
Giants 4%
Chargers <1%
Titans <1%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 28, 2023
The Panthers have a one-game buffer from the Cardinals as the worst record in the league. Two Panthers losses, or one Cardinals win and a Panthers loss this upcoming week also confirm the first pick to the Bears.
The 4% left between the Bears owning the first pick is likely factoring in the odds of the Panthers winning their final two games and the Cardinals losing their final two games. Unlikely, but that would ensure the Cardinals the worst record in the league, airgo the first pick in the draft.
The Panthers will face the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their final two games. The Cardinals face the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks to cap off their season. Barring any improbably elite play from the Panthers, the Bears should have their pick of the litter come April.
If the Panthers and Cardinals tie records, the tiebreaker will first go to strength of schedule. Looking at ESPN's analytics for the Bears' chances, it appears the Panthers' strength of schedule will likely be lower than that of the Cardinals by the season's end. The strength of the schedule encompasses one team's opponents' records at the end of the season.
Anything can happen. Remember how the Bears earned the No. 1 pick last season? A fourth-quarter, fourth-down touchdown for the Texans in their final regular season game against the Colts lifted Houston one win above the Bears to give the latter the No. 1 pick. Who knows what could happen to stir things up this season?
However, it appears the Bears will have the first overall pick for a second consecutive season. If they earn the pick, they will become the ninth team in NFL history to receive the No. 1 pick in back-to-back drafts.
Then, the question becomes --- what will the Bears do with the No. 1 pick? Stay tuned.
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