Champions League best bets: Tottenham and Real Madrid could face testing time in second legs
When thinking about the chances of Borussia Dortmund making a historic comeback to eliminate Tottenham from this year’s Champions League, the mind is drawn to some amazing turnarounds.
No side has ever reversed a 3-0 away defeat but Barcelona lost 4-0 in the first leg to PSG in 2016/17 before winning the second leg 6-1 in an incredible match at the Nou Camp, Roma beat Barcelona 3-0 in Italy last season after losing the first leg 4-1 and Deportivo thrashed AC Milan 4-0 after losing the away tie 4-1 in 2004.
While Dortmund’s task is difficult with the lack of an away goal from the first leg, their task is not impossible and impressive home form this season means the German side may still be entertaining outside hopes of qualifying if they strike early to take advantage of any nerves displayed by an out-of-form Tottenham side.
Dortmund have not lost at home in the Bundesliga this season, winning 10 of their 12 matches and beat Atletico Madrid 4-0 in their Champions League group.
They have scored 40 goals in their 12 home league matches and have scored three or more goals in 12 of their 17 games in all competitions at Signal Induna Park this season, which suggests Tottenham will be under immense pressure at some stage.
Dortmund were hampered by the absences of Marco Reus and Paco Alcacer, who have 26 Bundesliga goals between them this season, for the first leg at Wembley, but that firepower should be back in the team tonight.
It’s unlikely that Dortmund will have enough to qualify - they are priced at 10/1 to do so - but the evens available of Dortmund winning the match in 90 minutes looks a great bet given their home form and the dip in performances of their opponents.
Tottenham have lost their last four away games to Chelsea twice, Crystal Palace and Burnley and should have suffered defeat to Arsenal in the North London derby last weekend.
With Victor Wanyama pressed into service after a long-term injury for the game against Arsenal and this being Harry Kane’s fourth game in 11 days after his spell on the sidelines, there is every reason to think some Tottenham players will be fighting fatigue in Germany. The best Tottenham may have to hope for is that their defeat is small enough to ensure progress for the next round.
Real Madrid v Ajax
The superstars of Real Madrid are under pressure after losing three of their last four games, including two El Clasicos against Barcelona.
Trailing their rivals by 12 points in La Liga under temporary manager Santiago Solari, they have no hope of winning the league but victory in this competition is what Real Madrid do.
However, Madrid will be without Sergio Ramos, who was booked in the final stages of their 2-1 first leg win in Holland and they may face a tougher test than many expect in the Bernabeu tonight.
Ajax are an impressive young side and many of their players, including defender Matthijs de Ligt and Donny van de Beek, midfielder Frenkie de Jong and forward Kasper Dolberg will be targeted for big-money summer transfers by Europe’s superpowers.
Ajax’s away form in their Champions League group was impressive, beating AEK Athens and drawing with Benfica and Bayern Munich.
That suggests they could give an inconsistent Real Madrid plenty to think about tonight and, while it might be asking too much for them to qualify at around 7/1, there could be plenty of value in backing tonight’s game to end in a draw at 7/2.
