Cavs season preview: Even after LeBron's exit, Cleveland is focused on the playoffs
When LeBron James left the Cavs for the first time in 2010, Cleveland won three of the next four draft lotteries and was able to lure James back in 2014.
Following James’ second departure, Dan Gilbert doesn’t have any interest in collecting ping pong balls. Defying conventional wisdom, the Cavs opted not to tear down their roster. They have their sights set on the playoffs despite losing this generation’s greatest player. Tristan Thompson, the longest-tenured Cav, said they will surprise people this season, via Cleveland.com:
“We’re a playoff team. That’s realistic,” Thompson said. “Everyone that says playoffs is overachieving doesn’t know our squad and doesn’t believe in our squad. For us, we’re a playoff team. We just have to go out there, be ourself and prove the naysayers wrong, which we will.”
In a dilapidated Eastern Conference, the Cavs could very well back their way into the playoff picture. If you squint, you can see the outline of a successful team here. Love is a capable No. 1 option on offense and can work in tandem with Thompson and Larry Nance to control the boards. In JR Smith, Kyle Korver, Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood, Cleveland has floor spacing, while George Hill and rookie Collin Sexton are each qualified to play floor general.
The reality is probably a little more bleak. Love is a different player, physically and stylistically, than he was in Minnesota. Thompson is coming off the worst season of his career. Smith’s performance fell off a cliff once he signed his new deal in 2016. At 37, Korver is still an elite shooter, but he depends on other players to get open looks. Clarkson had an abysmal postseason, while Hood was even worse, refusing to enter a playoff game. Hill has been a shell of himself the last two years.
The decision to push for the playoffs might not have been much of a decision after all. Outside of Love and Sexton, there isn’t much to sell on the rest of the roster. Signing Love to a contract extension was likely more about maintaining his trade value than staying competitive this season. Outside of those two, Cleveland is saddled with expensive contracts that will be tough to move. Smith could have value for a team looking to cut salary because the final year of his contract is only guaranteed for $3.8 million for the 2019-20 season.
With the lottery odds flattening out this season, it is also not as valuable to be a complete dumpster fire. The Cavs owe a first-round pick to the Hawks, stemming from the Kyle Korver trade. It is protected 1-10 for the next two seasons before converting into a pair of seconds. For the Cavs to land outside of the top 10, they will need a breakout season from Sexton.
X-Factor
Sexton, the main haul in the Kyrie Irving trade, should provide a spark to the Cavs from Day 1. He’s a hard-nosed competitor who will bring intensity to both ends of the floor. Just check out this viral moment from summer league:
I thought i had seen it all and then i watched Collin Sexton try to intimidate his opponent by flexing on DEFENSE thank you so much for this pic.twitter.com/v5NaATVmWR
— Sherwob Holmes (@World_Wide_Wob) July 17, 2018
Point guard is the toughest position to learn as a rookie, and Sexton will start the season in a backup role to Hill. He shot just 33.6 percent from the closer college three-point line so the NBA distance will be a challenge at first. On a Cavs team that will struggle to make the playoffs, Sexton should get plenty of reps and a chance to prove himself as the team’s future leader.
Outlook
After winning 50 games last season with James playing at a superhuman level, the Cavs are in for a steep drop off this season. Cleveland projects to finish somewhere in the 30-win range, competing with Detroit and Charlotte for the final playoff spot in the East.
A back-to-back set against the Nets and Pistons in the second week of the season will be a good early measuring stick for how the Cavs stack up in the East.
After trading away draft picks to maximize their title chances with James on the roster, the Cavs will need to hit on their upcoming first-round picks. While it would sting to lose out on their pick this season, it would likely mean that Sexton had a terrific rookie season.
