Canucks offseason outlook: Biggest questions, needs, free agent targets
The Canucks are caught in an awkward spot but could go a long way in improving their long-term outlook with the right offseason approach.
Gaze upon the Vancouver Canucks’ salary structure — especially their defense — and risk falling into a pit of despair. Amid the many comical mistakes the Canucks have made over the years, they’ve managed to land some high-end players, especially Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, yet they go into the 2023 offseason looking a bit grim.
Some of that despair stems from the franchise’s penchant to light the future on fire in the dim hopes of temporary gains.
Truly, the Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout feels all too fitting. The Canucks could have enjoyed the freedom of being rid of previous mistakes in foolish veteran investments (Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel) if they merely absorbed a year of pain. Instead, they made a different version of the same mistake when they sent those players plus futures including the ninth pick of the 2021 NHL Draft for Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland.
(It’s almost too perfect that the Canucks are trying to wiggle out of the Garland contract, too.)
Intriguing Coyotes prospect Dylan Guenther went ninth overall in 2021. The Canucks also could’ve drafted someone like Cole Sillinger (11th) or rising Dallas Stars forward Wyatt Johnston (23rd) in that spot had they kept the pick.
Even the smartest, most careful NHL teams hit low points at times. It’s virtually inevitable. The key is to learn from your mistakes and pounce on ideal opportunities. Too often, the Canucks just dig that hole deeper and then gaze blankly as other, wiser teams snatch up the chances they could have had.
Canucks' free-agent outlook and cap situation
Notable UFAs: Kyle Burroughs, Noah Juulsen, Collin Delia.
Notable RFAs: Vitali Kravtsov, Ethan Bear, Travis Dermott
Projected salary cap space: $6.45M, possibly $12.19M depending upon LTIR considerations.
There’s a version of a 2023 Canucks outlook where they do the smart things and pull off various crusty Band-Aids. Truly, if there was or is any chance to trade J.T. Miller before his no-movement clause kicks in, that should be a no-brainer. Similarly, if there were any teams interested in trading for $6M defenseman Tyler Myers, then the Canucks could’ve cleared serious salary cap space and arguably exercised an example of “addition by subtraction.”
All signs point to the Canucks lacking the intestinal fortitude to make those types of moves, though.
With that win-just-enough-now approach in mind, let’s try to make lemonade with all the lemons the Canucks keep burdening themselves with heading into the 2023 offseason.
Canucks’ biggest offseason needs
Extend Pettersson if at all possible
Look, it might be a big “GULP” moment to back up the Brink's truck and give Pettersson a big, long-term contract. Maybe he’ll hold out to see if the fabled NHL salary cap bump ever actually happens. It’s the Canucks’ job to do everything in their power to get him signed on the dotted line as soon as possible, though.
Consider the gap between Pettersson, a small group of other Canucks led by Quinn Hughes and then everyone else in this three-year GAR chart from Evolving Hockey.
That image ranks as one way to slam home the point that Pettersson is vital to the Canucks’ future, and there aren’t many other players who even rank closely to him. At 24, he’s still improving. Eventually, he may even gain enough traction with old-school types that people will realize he’s the sort of player who should command some Selke Trophy recognition.
Either way, it would be damning if the Canucks kept trying to drag their feet to the finish line amid rebuild denial and not do everything they can to lock down the player who is the oasis in their desert.
Don’t forget: recent hockey history is dotted with proactive contract extensions that looked excessive to some at the time, but ended up being bargains in the long run. What feels like a mild overpay today could stand as a steal tomorrow.
Defense, so much defense
Long-term, Filip Hronek is the sort of nice defenseman who could end up costing a lot of money. If the Canucks cared much about even the medium-term future, an impending raise would be more of a concern. For 2023-24, Hronek is a considerable boost to Vancouver’s blue line as arguably its second-best defenseman behind Hughes. He’s also a right-handed defenseman, giving the Canucks the option to load up with both of them, or ask each player to carry their own pairing.
If you’re a realist, the Canucks need two top-four defensemen, but an optimist might pump Myers’ tires once more and say they merely need one. The uncertainty around Bear’s health doesn’t help an already-shallow pool of defensemen, either.
As old-school types, the Canucks seem enamored with the size element of the Vegas Golden Knights’ defense, so don’t be shocked if Vancouver uses its post-Ekman-Larsson salary cap space to try to snatch up someone like Carson Soucy or Ryan Graves.
For Canucks fans, here’s hoping they target functional size, rather than size for size’s sake. Did Vancouver really learn that lesson with Myers and others, though?
Every now and then, there’s a sign that the franchise can target a quality defenseman such as Hronek (even if the timing of the actual deal was baffling). Between the league’s general fixation on size and the Canucks reeking of instant gratification desperation, addressing these needs may do more harm than good.
Backup goalie
The Canucks seem like they’re going to stick with Thatcher Demko after a rough season for a goalie who looked like a rising star.
One way to give Demko better support is to improve the defense and the structure around him. Avoiding overworking Demko would be wise, as well. Back in 2021-22, he put together a strong season overall, but maybe tapered off during the last two months of the campaign. Demko played 64 games that season, which is probably a bit much even for a fairly young goalie (who’s now 27).
Investing in a dependable backup who can lock down 25-30 games could help the Canucks get more out of the games Demko does play.
Center depth
To repeat an earlier point, forecasting the Canucks’ future without just blurting out “c’mon, rebuild” requires a certain suspension of disbelief. Many of us aren’t thoroughly convinced that Miller works best as a No. 2 center, rather than a scoring winger.
But it sure seems like Vancouver’s committed to that bit, so let’s assume Miller falls into that 2C spot (for better or worse).
That still leaves a depth chart that’s pretty lacking down the middle beyond Pettersson and Miller.
As of this moment, Nils Aman appears to be the first option at third-line center. One could picture a scenario where Aman can be effective as one of those “nothing happens” depth forwards who’s stout defensively and modest offensively.
That description smacks more of a fourth-liner, at least when you’re a team that’s hungry for a playoff berth (rather than a rebuilding team giving players room to grow and sometimes stumble).
Naturally, the free agent forward market isn’t exactly robust, particularly if appealing options such as Jordan Staal, Ivan Barbashev and Ryan O’Reilly end up sticking with their current teams.
Could a trade be a better option? It feels dangerous to point out that, along with some decent salary cap space, the Canucks also possess the No. 11 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. One hopes the Canucks would at least value the future enough to keep that selection, but if desperation is in the air, watch out.
Overall, the Canucks remain a mess, and could very well make more messes during the 2023 offseason. That said, Pettersson and Hughes highlight a core where, if you look at things from just the right (extremely rose-colored) angle, you can picture things working out.
