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Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos prediction and keys to Monday Night Football game

sal maiorana, rochester democrat and chronicle
·10 min read

ORCHARD PARK - When the final gun sounded on the sweltering South Florida Sunday afternoon of Sept. 24, the Denver Broncos were the laughingstock of the NFL.

That day, their defense got torched to the tune of 70 points and 726 yards by the Miami Dolphins. The Broncos became just the fourth team in a century-plus of NFL history to give up at least 70 points and just the second to allow at least 700 yards of total offense.

Since then, the Broncos have bucked up, shown a little pride in their work, and after losing five of their first six games have now won two in a row including a cathartic 24-9 victory over the Chiefs on Oct. 29 which ended a 16-game losing streak to Kansas City and sent them into their bye week feeling better about the future under new coach Sean Payton.

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“Clearly, we’re a better team today than we were four or five weeks ago,” Payton said earlier this week as his team began preparations for Monday night’s game at Highmark Stadium against the Buffalo Bills. “You can see that in a lot of ways. We’re doing a number of the things that are necessary to win games that I don’t think we were doing nearly as well at the start of the season.”

That debacle against Miami will skew Denver’s statistics for the rest of the season. Despite vastly improved play, the defense still ranks last in the NFL in points (28.3) and yards allowed (405.0) per game, and only four teams have given up more explosive plays than Denver’s 66.

More:What channel is the Bills game on? How to watch Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos

However, after allowing 181 points in their first five games (36.2 per game), the Broncos have given up 45 points over their last three (15.0) - a hard-fought 19-9 loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead and then home victories over the Packers (19-17) and Chiefs. In those three games Denver has not allowed a rushing touchdown after giving up eight over its first five games, and it has been the NFL’s best in red zone defense yielding just three TDs in 16 opponent trips inside the 20 (Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were 1-for-8 combined in their two matchups).

“I’m not surprised that they’re playing the way that they are beating the Chiefs and then just watching their team come together the way it has,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “From the outside, it just seems like they’re coming together defensively. They’re holding people to fewer and fewer points obviously since that (Miami) game.”

Here’s my preview of the game:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Dalton Kincaid has 23 receptions for 221 yards in the last three games.
Dalton Kincaid has 23 receptions for 221 yards in the last three games.

The big topic coming out of the loss to the Bengals was the future employment of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. McDermott shot down any thought that he was considering a change, but he also hinted that Dorsey needs to get the stagnant offense unlocked because over the last five games the Bills are averaging a pedestrian 20.2 points.

Nothing is coming easy for Josh Allen and one of the big issues is that he’s not getting enough production from anyone besides Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid. This season, those two have been targeted a combined 142 times and they have 110 receptions for 1,173 yards and eight TDs. The other 10 players Allen has thrown to - including No. 2 WR Gabe Davis - have been targeted a combined 165 times and caught only 122 passes for 1,250 yards and 10 TDs.

The lightning rod has been Davis whose inconsistency from week to week continues to be a problem. This year he has five games where he has accumulated 35 yards or less including zero last week in Cincinnati. That has to change if the offense is going to get back to being dangerous which it hasn’t been since the 48-20 blowout of Miami.

What to know Bills in prime time again as they take on Broncos on Monday Night Football

And for all the talk from McDermott and Dorsey about being two-dimensional, the Bills aren’t because their running game has sputtered most of the year as they rank 16th in the NFL at 108.1 yards per game. James Cook has had his moments which is why his 4.7 average is tied for ninth-best, but there have been games where he’s been a non-factor. In his last five games, his total yards from scrimmage average (rushing and receiving) is an underwhelming 61.2 yards.

Denver’s defense is clearly on the upswing and it features two of the best DBs in the league, All-Pros Patrick Surtain II and Justin Simmons. In the victory over the Chiefs the Broncos forced five turnovers including Simmons making a pick and recovering a fumble. Surtain could very well travel with Diggs, and if so, that’s a key matchup, especially if the Bills’ supporting cast doesn’t step up.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Russell Wilson endured a nightmarish 2022 season, his first in Denver, and some thought he was washed up as a productive NFL QB. However, now that the offensive-minded Payton has taken over, Wilson has had a nice bounce-back season. His passer rating of 101.7 is fifth in the NFL, he’s completing 66.1% of his passes and has 16 TDs against just four interceptions including only one pick in the last five games.

WR Courtland Sutton - who has been plagued by poor QB play since he entered the league in 2018 including last year with Wilson - leads the Broncos with 33 catches and a career-high-tying six TDs, though he has totaled only 380 yards. And WR Jerry Jeudy, who is supposed to be the home run threat, is averaging only 12.4 yards on 27 catches with one TD. Their low yardage totals are a product of Wilson having been sacked 26 times which has led the Broncos to utilize a play action, short passing game which has featured RBs Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin combining for 51 catches.

Another key for the Broncos on offense has been relying much more on their ground game than they did early in the season, and they’ve found some success. In the win over the Chiefs they ran 40 times for 153 yards which led to more than 33 minutes of possession time. Williams is the primary ballcarrier and over the last three weeks his 219 yards rushing are fourth-most by a RB so the Bills’ run defense - which is coming off a good game but still ranks 30th at 4.9 yards allowed per carry - needs to be much better than it has been.

What will be interesting in this game is the health of Buffalo’s secondary. Two starters - CB Christian Benford and safety Micah Hyde - have not practiced all week and are expected to be inactive. Also, LB Terrel Bernard might not play because of his concussion. Safety Jordan Poyer practiced Friday and Saturday so he seems on target to play, but a defense that may have to start Taylor Rapp alongside Poyer, and Tyrel Dodson and Dorian Williams at LB is obviously worrisome.

Bills vs. Broncos: News and notes

Denver Broncos safety Justin Simmons (31) celebrates after making an interception against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Denver Broncos safety Justin Simmons (31) celebrates after making an interception against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

▶ Since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Bills have the league’s best home record at 23-5. In those 28 games, Allen has passed for 7,062 yards and totaled 77 touchdowns passing and rushing.

▶ Diggs, who leads the NFL with 70 catches, needs 16 more to pass DeAndre Hopkins (789) for the most catches in league history before age 30. Starting with Denver, he has three games left to play before he turns 30 on Nov. 29.

▶ The Bills have three players with at least five sacks which is tied for the most in the NFL. Leonard Floyd has seven, and A.J. Epenesa and Ed Oliver have five.

▶ Von Miller was the Broncos’ first-round pick in 2011 and he played 142 games in the 9 ½ seasons he was in Denver (he missed all of 2020), recording 110.5 sacks before being traded to the Rams midway through 2021. This will be the first time he has played against the Broncos meaning he will have played against all 32 teams.

▶ Simmons, a three-time All-Pro, has 29 interceptions since his debut 2016 season, tied for the most in the NFL in that span with Miami’s Xavien Howard.

▶ Wilson is the first quarterback in NFL history to accumulate totals of at least 40,000 passing yards and 5,000 rushing yards in his career, most of that coming during his time with Seattle.

▶ Since he entered the NFL in 2012, Wilson’s 41 game-winning drives leads the NFL. One of those came in Week 7 against the Packers.

▶ The Broncos have been a quick starting team this season as they have scored on six game-opening drives (five TDs and a field goal). Their 37 first-drive points are second behind only the 49ers (38). The Bills have scored on four of nine opening drives, with only two TDs and 20 total points. The Bills have actually been outscored 52-44 in the first quarter.

▶ Buffalo's last five games have all been decided by six or fewer points, the longest active such streak in the NFL. It is also the first time the Bills have ever played in five straight games decided by fewer than seven points.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 16

Once again, it’s all about when you play teams, right? And at this moment, with all of Buffalo’s injuries on defense, it’s offense not functioning up to its capability, and the Broncos’ recent resurgence after their disastrous start to this season when they looked like one of the worst teams anyone had ever seen, this game suddenly looks much more competitive than it would have been early in the year.

Given the difficulty that lies ahead on the schedule, if the Bills hope to remain viable in the AFC playoff picture they cannot lose this game. Buffalo is still the superior team and is playing at home, and while this isn’t going to be a layup, the Bills should understand their circumstances and get the job done on another night when the sellout crowd may have to stick around until the very end.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Broncos prediction and keys to Monday Night Football game