Advertisement

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction and keys to Sunday Night Football game

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
·10 min read

ORCHARD PARK - There is always going to be animosity for Bills Mafia in relation to the Buffalo Bills’ AFC East rivals - the Dolphins, Patriots and Jets - but lately the Cincinnati Bengals are climbing their way up the disdain ladder and may even be reaching the top rung.

The Bengals have gained a reputation as one of the more arrogant, trash talking teams in the NFL and, hey, when you can back it up the way they have on the field the last few years, have at it. Still, this is a team that walks and talks with an edge and it has become one that every opponent revels in shutting up, if for no other reason so Joe Burrow and company don’t light up their victory cigars in the locker room.

Remember last year when running back Joe Mixon was asked about the Bills’ Pro Bowl linebacking duo of Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds before the regular-season game and he said, “They’re good, they get paid, too. I’m not saying they’re not good, but they’re not the Ravens. What people need to know and understand is we’re the big dog of the AFC. That’s just what it is. For anything to happen, it has to go through us.”

Sign up for the Bills Blast newsletter Delivered straight to your inbox, additional Bills analysis, insight, stats, quotes and team history from Sal Maiorana

Because that game got canceled after Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest, the Bengals had to wait until their 27-10 thumping of the Bills in the playoffs to prove Mixon right and light their cigars, and kudos to them because they did.

But the aftermath was a bit over the top. Now-departed cornerback Eli Apple made a fool out of himself - which is nothing new for him no matter where he has played - when he spent some of his post-victory celebration trolling Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs on Twitter.

Which, whatever, right? But one of Apple’s tweets read “Cancún on 3” with a heart emoji. As you know, Hamlin’s jersey number is 3, and the heart emoji had become a rallying cry for Hamlin’s recovery. Apple denied any classless wrongdoing, but no one believed him.

Later that week, the Bengals renamed Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium “Burrowhead” because Burrow was 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes heading into the AFC Championship Game. Even the mayor of Cincinnati got into the act, saying, “Joseph Lee Burrow, who is 3-0 against Mahomes, has been asked by officials to take a paternity test to confirm whether or not he’s (Mahomes’) father.”

The Chiefs aren’t exactly America’s favorite team given all the success they’ve had, but that week, not many football fans outside Bengals Nation were too upset that Kansas City sent Cincinnati into the offseason.

Now this week, wide receiver Tyler Boyd - who once was a hero in Buffalo because he caught the infamous TD pass from Andy Dalton that enabled the Bills to get into the 2017 playoffs - has drummed up a false controversy in an apparent attempt at firing up his teammates.

“Going back to the playoff game, when we won in the snow, a couple of their players were saying if it wasn’t snowing they would’ve beat us. We’re here now, so we’re going to see what the outcome is,” Boyd said.

This was likely in reference to something former Bills receiver Isaiah McKenzie had said on a podcast months after the game, and it was a perfectly innocent comment about how the Bengals stuck to simple routes on offense given the slick conditions compared to the Bills more complicated approach, and that caused Buffalo some problems on offense. McKenzie then said if the game had been played in a dome, “it would have been a totally different game.”

What he didn’t say, as Boyd implied, is the Bills would have won. But if dredging up that quote helps the Bengals beat the Bills Sunday, good job by Boyd I guess.

Here’s my preview of the Bills vs Bengals game, followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) looks for running room.
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) looks for running room.

Inconsistency is the most-used word this season when trying to describe Buffalo’s offensive attack. There have been times when it has been elite, and times when it has been unrecognizable. But last week against Tampa Bay, at least in the first half, the Bills had things clicking and they need to tap into that in this game where points are going to be needed.

Ken Dorsey had Allen in an up-tempo mode and that seemed to solve the problem the Bills had been experiencing in the previous three games of starting sluggishly. Allen got into an early rhythm and the Bills had 17 points at halftime and it should have been 20 or 24 if not for a botched goal-line series when they turned it over on downs. Against Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo who is one of the best in game strategists in the league, it would be wise for the Bills to go no huddle and limit the amount of situational substitutions Anarumo can make, thus shrinking his call sheet.

Against the Bucs, Allen was blitzed on 43.5% of his dropbacks and the counter move was that he utilized a quick passing game - his time to throw of 2.77 seconds was the fastest of his career - and he found holes in the secondary by spreading the ball around nicely to Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. The Bengals have been blitzing at a lower rate as each week has gone on, so Buffalo’s passing game targets will likely see seven in coverage a good chunk of the game and there may not be as many quick answers for Allen. If so, he needs to use his legs in key situations, and with his sore shoulder, he also needs to get down and avoid taking shots.

D.J. Reader is yet another stud defensive tackle who the Bills have to deal with Sunday night.
D.J. Reader is yet another stud defensive tackle who the Bills have to deal with Sunday night.

The Bengals haven’t been great against the pass as their average yards allowed per attempt of 7.2 is tied for 28th, mainly because they have allowed 27 completions of at least 20 yards, tied with Buffalo’s defense for the eighth-most. Cincinnati has also given up 25 runs of at least 10 yards, tied with the Bills for fifth-most. Overall, the Bengals have allowed an explosive gain on 7.4% of their defensive plays which is worst in the league.

If the Bills’ offensive line can handle the sizable DT duo of D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill and get to the second level where excellent LBs Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt will be waiting, there might be a few opportunities for James Cook to hit a big play on the ground, something this offense needs to get a little more of.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau chases New York Giants quarterback Tyrod Taylor out of the pocket.
Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau chases New York Giants quarterback Tyrod Taylor out of the pocket.

There has only been one game this season where the Bills knew they’d probably have to put up a load of points in order to win, and they certainly did that in their 48-20 blowout over the Dolphins. As it turned out, they didn’t need nearly that many because the defense played so well, but that was a vastly different defensive unit than the Bills now have as they face the second-best offense they’ve seen this year in Cincinnati.

With Burrow now recovered from the calf injury that slowed him during the first four games, the Bengals are firing on all cylinders and the Bills - without CB Tre’Davious White, DT DaQuan Jones and LB Matt Milano - are undermanned, even if this week’s additions of CB Rasul Douglas and DT Linval Joseph can make meaningful contributions.

Burrow chewed up the Bills’ defense in the playoff game and now he goes into this game, which will be played in much better weather conditions, with his same group of weapons in Mixon, Boyd and the top two WRs, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, while also operating behind an offensive line that is playing perhaps better than at any time in Burrow’s career.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow passed for 242 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-10 playoff win over the Bills.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow passed for 242 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-10 playoff win over the Bills.

The biggest key for the Bills on defense will be to crank up the pass rush which has been superb all year. They have to get heat on Burrow and not allow his talented wideouts time to develop routes against Buffalo’s secondary. That’s a recipe for disaster. It would be a timely night for Von Miller to start showing up, and the same goes for Greg Rousseau who isn’t the same player he was before his foot injury.

The Bills also have to contain Mixon who gained 105 yards rushing in the playoff game. If the Bengals get him going, that makes the passing game all the more dangerous. Lastly, the Bills need to get a couple turnovers, a facet that has been missing as they have only one in the last three games.

Sal’s prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 20

My streak of picking the Bills to win ends at eight. I just don’t like this matchup for Buffalo, especially going into Paycor Stadium with a defense that is missing three of its best players and an offense that is still searching for its former explosive nature. This is the first game where the injuries may really be noticeable because the Bengals offense is among the best in the NFL.

Obviously, Allen and the Bills’ offense is capable of not only keeping pace but even outscoring Cincinnati and pulling the upset, but the Bengals are playing better all around football than Buffalo is at this moment and it’s tough to see that trend reversing in this game.

Bills vs. Bengals: News and notes

Ed Oliver is having the best season of his career and already has five sacks.
Ed Oliver is having the best season of his career and already has five sacks.

▶ Last week against the Bucs the Bills had four receivers with at least 65 yards, just the fifth time that has happened in team history and the first since Sept. 25, 2011 against New England when Donald Jones, Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson and David Nelson were the foursome.

▶ Allen is the first player in the Super Bowl era with at least 17 passing TDs and five rushing TDs in his team's first eight games.

▶ Ed Oliver has already matched his career-high for sacks in a season with five. That’s third among all interior defensive linemen this season. He also has 10 total tackles for loss which is tied for second.

▶ Under McDermott, the Bills are now 51-7 in games where they led at halftime, and they are also 5-0 all-time on Sunday Night Football.

▶ In 20 regular-season Sunday night games - most of those pre-Burrow - the Bengals are 3-17 overall, and they have lost 10 straight.

▶ Burrow has 16 career games with at least three touchdown passes, tied with Peyton Manning and Dak Prescott for the fifth-most such games in his first four career seasons. Only Dan Marino (27), Kurt Warner (21), Patrick Mahomes (21) and Justin Herbert (17) have more.

▶ The Bills enter the week tied for the third-most takeaways (14) in the NFL this season, but 13 came in the first five games. The Bengals are tied for the league’s second-fewest giveaways (6).

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Bengals prediction, keys to Sunday Night Football game