Advertisement

Buccaneers a win away from playoffs: How Bucs can win division, clinch postseason

dan rorabaugh, usa today network - florida
·4 min read

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were expected to take a step back when Tom Brady retired (for good, this time ... we think) after the 2022 season. But the Bucs have a good chance to clinch a playoff spot for the third straight season with a better record than last year's team.

They could have made it easier on themselves if they had beaten the New Orleans Saints last week. But a tough 23-13 loss gave the two NFC South rivals matching 8-8 records heading into the final week of the NFL regular season.

There's one way surefire way for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to make the playoffs: beat the 2-14 Carolina Panthers on Sunday in Charlotte. A win makes them champions of the NFC South and clinches the NFC's No. 4 seed in the playoffs. If they lose, the NFL's tiebreaker scenarios would put them out of the postseason, but a tie would keep them alive.

The 7-9 Atlanta Falcons play the Saints in their finale. If the Bucs, Saints and Falcons all finish with 8-9 records, Atlanta would win the NFC South because of their record against teams in the division. The Saints also could make the playoffs as a wild card if they win and the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks lose.

There is a scenario where the Packers, Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings and all three teams vying for the NFC South title end the season at 8-9. If that happens, the Packers would claim the NFC's third and final wild card spot, even though the Bucs beat the Packers 34-20 in Week 15.

But there is a way for the Bucs to not win Sunday and still make it. A tie against the Panthers and losses by the Packers and Seahawks would make them the seventh seed.

The good news for Bucs fans is the Panthers have the worst record in the NFL. The potentially bad news is Tampa won their first matchup this season by just 3 points, a 21-18 home win December 3.

How the Bucs can clinch a playoff spot

Tampa Bay can make the playoffs with:

  • A win at Carolina

  • A tie + Seattle loss + Green Bay loss/tie

The New York Times prediction model gives the Bucs a 56% chance of making the playoffs.

Are the Bucs out of the playoffs?

Tampa Bay has not clinched a playoff spot. If they lose to the Panthers:

  • Saints make the playoffs with a win vs. Falcons

  • Falcons make the playoffs with a win vs. Saints

  • Either the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings or Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs by securing the NFC's third and final wild card spot.

How the Bucs can win the NFC South

Tampa Bay needs only to win at Carolina at 1 p.m. Sunday to clinch the division title and the automatic playoff berth that comes with it. A win last week against the Saints would have sealed the division title, but the Bucs lost 23-13.

The Saints host the Atlanta Falcons at 1 p.m. Sunday, and if the Bucs lose, the winner of that game will clinch the NFC South's automatic playoff bid. The Saints can also make the playoffs if they and the Bucs win, but the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks both lose.

Which seed will the Bucs be in the playoffs?

If the Bucs win Sunday, they will be the No. 4 seed as NFC South champions. If they tie, the Seahawks lose and the Packers lose or tie, the Bucs will be the No. 7 seed.

The No. 1 seed (San Francisco 49ers) is the only one solidified in the NFC playoffs entering Week 18.

Who will the Bucs play in the first round of the playoffs?

That's to be determined Sunday, but the Bucs will likely play whichever team claims the No. 5 seed. Assuming the Bucs beat the Panthers:

The game would be played in Tampa if the Bucs win Sunday.

If the Bucs make the playoffs as a wild card, they would play on the road against the NFC's No. 2 seed:

  • If Philly wins and Dallas loses or ties, the Bucs would play at the Eagles.

  • If Dallas wins, the Bucs would play at the Eagles.

  • If the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings, and Dallas and Philly both lose or tie, the Bucs would play at the Lions.

When is the Bucs game on Sunday?

Bucs vs. Panthers kicks off at 1 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 7, from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The game will air on Fox. Kenny Albert will be on the play-by-play with Jonathan Vilma as analyst. Streaming options include fuboTV, which offers a free trial to potential subscribers.

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Tampa Bay Bucs nearly in NFL playoffs: Clinching chances, scenarios