Breaking down latest betting developments for the Outback Bowl

It wasn’t so long ago we made note that the odds for the Outback Bowl were trending in favor of Arkansas. Well, a day after seeing key players like Jahan Dotson and Jaquan Brisker announce their intent to skip the bowl season and begin focusing on their NFL futures, Penn State is now listed as the underdog in this season’s Outback Bowl.

Penn State opened as a 2.5-point favorite on Tipico when the Outback Bowl matchup with Arkansas was first confirmed, but the line recently shrunk down to 1.5-points in favor of the Nittany Lions. But now, the line is looking the other way, with Arkansas currently listed as a 1.5-point favorite in the Outback Bowl.

Since the line opening on the Outback Bowl, Penn State has lost its two leading tacklers and starting linebackers. Brandon Smith and Ellis Brooks each announced they were opting out of the bowl game to begin focusing on their NFL future. Those absences leave a big question for Penn State’s defense. Arkansas is also without its leading receiver, This week started with big announcements from Jahan Dotson, Penn State’s leading receiver, and Jaquan Brisker, among the nation’s top safeties, to declare for the NFL draft and opt-out of the bowl season entirely.

Penn State is 2-2 against the spread this season when playing as the underdog. Penn State opened the season with an upset victory at Wisconsin when Penn State was a 5.5-point underdog on the road against the Badgers. Penn State won the game outright. Penn State narrowly lost against the spread in their road loss at Iowa, losing as a 2.5-point underdog by three points. Penn State covered as an 18.5-point underdog at Ohio State (losing by nine), but was unable to cover at home as a 2.5-point underdog against Michigan (lost by four).

Arkansas is 3-3-1 against the spread when pegged as the favorite in a game. But the Razorbacks are 1-2-1 against the spread against power conference competition, but 3-1 striaght-up in the favorite role in those same games.

What should also be noted is the movement on the point total for the game. In light of Penn State losing another top defensive player (Jaquan Brisker), the over/under has been increased by three points just within the last couple of days. After being set at 44.5 in our last betting outlook for the game, the new line is set at 47.5 as Tipico is looking for a little bit more scoring in this Outback Bowl as we approach the game.

Penn State will face Arkansas in the Outback Bowl on Saturday, January 1, 2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Outback Bowl: Penn State-Arkansas odds from Tipico

• Penn State: +1.5 (-115)

• Arkansas: +1.5 (-107)

• Penn State moneyline: -103

• Arkansas moneyline: -117

• Over: 47.5 (-115)

• Under: 47.5 (-107)

All Betting Lines are Courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook

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