Breaking down each college football conference race from the favorites to the dark horses
First, you need to settle on which teams are the favorites in every Football Bowl Subdivision conference.
In the SEC, that’s Alabama and Georgia. In the Big Ten, that’s Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Southern California, Oregon, Washington and Utah lead the way in the Pac-12. Troy, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama are the favorites in the Sun Belt.
These teams deserve to lead the conference power rankings heading into the 2023 season. But who will rise to the top when the regular season is complete in December?
With spring football in the books and under four months until kickoff, USA TODAY Sports takes a look at the team to beat and the dark-horse contender in every Power Five and Group of Five league.
American
Favorite: Texas-San Antonio
Dark horse: East Carolina
The new-look AAC returns last year's champion, Tulane, while bringing in four newcomers from Conference USA. One of those new teams, UTSA, has what it takes to win this conference and represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Six bowl. Led by veteran quarterback Frank Harris and one of the nation's most underrecognized coaches in Jeff Traylor, the Roadrunners have the talent, experience and schemes to keep the Green Wave at bay and hit the ground running in the new league. Another holdover, East Carolina, has made big strides during the past two seasons under coach Mike Houston, including the program's first eight-win finish since 2014. But the Pirates bring back only nine starters and are among the least experienced teams in the AAC.
SPRING POWER RANKINGS: Big Ten | SEC | Big 12 | ACC | Pac-12
LOOKING AHEAD: Georgia, Michigan lead post-spring Top 25 ranking
SURPRISE STORIES: Which teams can mimic TCU's unlikely playoff run?
ACC
Favorite: Clemson
Dark horse: Miami
Clemson is the safest pick to top the ACC despite Florida State's huge gains heading into coach Mike Norvell's fourth season. Maybe the biggest reason for optimism is the projected rebirth of the Tigers' offense under new coordinator Garrett Riley, who previously held the same position at TCU. While personnel issues linger at wide receiver, this new offense will get the most out of promising young quarterback Cade Klubnik. The question of the year in the ACC doubles as one of the most pressing questions across the entire FBS: Are the Seminoles finally ready to beat Clemson and snap a seven-game losing streak in the series?
Big 12
Favorite: Texas
Dark horse: Texas Tech
Adding Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston into the mix makes it very difficult to get a read on the Big 12 heading into the final season for flagship conference members Texas and Oklahoma. While the Sooners should make a big move under Brent Venables after his disappointing debut, the Longhorns are poised to capture the program's first conference championship since 2009 behind quarterback Quinn Ewers. A deeper roster buoyed by another strong recruiting class should help Texas avoid the dips and lulls that have plagued every season for more than a decade. While any one of the newcomers could make an immediate splash, Texas Tech has the strongest case for rising from the league's second tier and cracking the New Year's Six under coach Joey McGuire.
Big Ten
Favorite: Michigan
Dark horse: Wisconsin
The Big Ten has three teams near the top of the FBS in the Wolverines, Nittany Lions and Buckeyes. After tearing through Ohio State in each of the past two seasons, Michigan has taken on the mantle of the Big Ten’s best program. This year's roster is the best of Jim Harbaugh's tenure and is potentially strong enough to stand up against the SEC champion in the playoff, should that unfold in January. Could Penn State leapfrog the Buckeyes and be the Wolverines’ biggest threat? That depends on the play of young quarterback Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions’ offensive line. Wisconsin fits the bill of a dark horse after hiring a new coach, Luke Fickell, and installing a new offense scheme built around Air Raid principles.
Conference USA
Favorite: Western Kentucky
Dark horse: Texas-El Paso
Before discussing anything else, let’s jog our memories on the makeup of this year’s nine-member league. Six teams left for the AAC in UTSA, Alabama-Birmingham, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas and Rice. To replace this group, Conference USA added two former FBS independents, Liberty and New Mexico State, and two Championship Subdivision programs in Jacksonville State and Sam Houston. The FCS additions won’t be eligible for the conference championship or a bowl while transitioning to this higher level.
So, yeah, it’s not a great league. Western Kentucky looks like the prohibitive favorite after winning at least nine games in three of the past four years and going a combined 23-8 in league play under coach Tyson Helton. Liberty is another strong contender under new coach Jamey Chadwell. After losing four league games by 11 or fewer points in 2022, UTEP could reload and challenge for eight wins should the Miners hit on some of the two dozen junior college transfers joining the roster this offseason.
MAC
Favorite: Toledo
Dark horse: Bowling Green
Toledo has the pieces to dominate a solid MAC West and notch double-digit wins for the first time since 2017. In fact, a win at Illinois in the season opener could place the Rockets among the elite Group of Five teams in the lead for the New Year’s Six. But Toledo will have to get past Eastern Michigan, which has been turned into a major contender under coach Chris Creighton. Bowling Green is trending upwards after reaching a bowl game last season for the first time since 2015 but will have to navigate a very challenging schedule that includes games at Liberty, Michigan and Georgia Tech in non-conference play and sends them on the road against MAC East favorites Miami (Ohio) and Buffalo.
Mountain West
Favorite: Boise State
Dark horse: Wyoming
Boise State was sparked by changes at offensive coordinator and quarterback after a sluggish start to last season. The Broncos went 8-0 in league play under first-year starting quarterback Taylen Green, one of eight returning starters on offense. While the favorites in the MWC, Boise does need to see improvement on defense after a hot-and-cold 2022 season. Personnel concerns up front and in the secondary could be the team’s downfall when it comes to the New Year’s Six. While likely to land among the second or third tier of teams in the league’s preseason poll, Wyoming has the front seven on defense and size on the offensive line to control matters up front.
Pac-12
Favorite: Southern California
Dark horse: Oregon State
With quarterback Caleb Williams and the offense set to take flight, the spotlight is on the Trojans' underachieving defense. Overall depth will improve following another round of transfers, this time leaning toward the defensive side of the ball − one late addition, former Georgia defensive lineman Bear Alexander, helps shore up the interior of the defensive line. Just a slight uptick in production will make USC very hard to beat despite the league's depth; six teams could land in the preseason USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll. One will certainly be Oregon State, which was terrific in 2022 and should be more consistent on offense with the addition of Clemson quarterback transfer DJ Uiagalelei.
SEC
Favorite: Georgia
Dark horse: Texas A&M
With all due respect to Alabama, it's difficult to pick against the two-time defending national champions. Georgia has holes to fill, though, after losing another group of high-profile starters to the NFL draft and several possible contributors to the transfer portal. At quarterback, look for the Bulldogs to land on junior Carson Beck as the starter under new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo. For now, continued concerns at quarterback even following the addition of Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner put the Crimson Tide in second place in the SEC power rankings.
After one of the most disappointing seasons in program history, can Texas A&M rebound and reclaim a seat in the playoff race? There's enormous pressure on coach Jimbo Fisher, who hired longtime FBS coach Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator after ending last season tied for 61st nationally in yards per play. But there is no questioning the Aggies' talent level and motivation. If pointed in the right direction, A&M could surge back into contention.
Sun Belt
Favorite: Troy
Dark horse: Marshall
It’s very hard to pick against Troy after last year’s 11-game winning streak under coach Jon Sumrall. A tough September might knock the Trojans back a peg, but this team has the offensive personnel to fend off South Alabama and Louisiana in the West division to reach the Sun Belt championship game. You can even make the case for Troy, USA and the Ragin’ Cajuns as the three favorites for the conference title, ahead of Coastal Carolina, Marshall and Appalachian State in the East division. With James Madison still ineligible for the championship and bowl game, Marshall is the dark horse in the East thanks to the makings of a terrific defense. The Thundering Herd do lose three key starters on offense, though.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football conference favorites and dark horses after spring
