Breakdown of new Mets prospects Marco Vargas, Ronald Hernandez
The first of what will be a few dominos fell Thursday night when the Mets sent reliever David Robertson to the Miami Marlins for two prospects in infielder Marco Vargas and catcher Ronald Hernandez. It is surely tough for fans to swallow, as trading their closer is a signal that the Mets are more or less waving the white flag in 2023. However, this was the prudent action to take. You cannot half-sell a house.
I follow prospects across the board, but even I can admit I knew little to nothing about Vargas and Hernandez once the names leaked last night other than the stats and where some publications had them ranked in the Marlins system.
In talking to scouts and evaluators in the game, the 18-year-old Vargas is considered to be the bigger piece in this deal. He has plus bat-to-ball skills with a strong feel for barrel control. He also has a very advanced plate discipline and is right now an average athlete. Defensively, he projects long-term as a second baseman that has the bat to play there. As he physically matures there could be a little power in there, but it may be mostly doubles. In 33 games for the Marlins Florida Complex League team he is hitting .283/.457/.422 with almost double the amount of walks (38) as strikeouts (22).
There are some underlying things that look good as well. Last year in the Dominican Summer League he was in the 90th percentile in exit velocity at north of 97 mph while whiffing only 13.8 percent of the time with a minuscule 9 percent whiff rate within the strike zone. This year in the FCL, if there were a Baseball Savant page, you’d see red (which is good) on swing and miss percentage and chase percentage. I don’t think Vargas is quite on the top 100 prospect radar yet, but he is on a trajectory to be that type of player. While some public perception may look down on this deal, talking to someone not with the Mets, they were surprised the Mets were able to pull Vargas and a piece for a rental reliever.
The secondary piece deserves some respect too in Hernandez. He is a switch-hitting catcher with a feel to hit who is already above average behind the plate in blocking, framing and throwing. There is some thought that there is more power in the bat as he is hitting the ball harder this year and also nearly doubled his ISO (isolated power which only takes extra-base hits and the type of extra base hits into account) from last year. He also has been noted as a leader on the field and at 19 is already bilingual so he is able to communicate with both Spanish and English speaking teammates and coaches. He is hitting .298/.464/.452 in 31 games also for the FCL Marlins.
There was a time not long ago that the Mets were barely scouting rookie ball teams, but the organization has progressed to the point that they felt trading a valuable rental reliever in Robertson for two kids in rookie ball was a strong return. There were a few years that the Mets were overly willing to trade these types of players, and now they are on the other side of the deal.
I know fans desired pitching prospects and closer to big-league ready pitching prospects. Often if you are trading for a closer to big-league ready talent, you are sacrificing upside. Teams aren’t rushing to trade close to ready big-time talents. I have not spoken to an evaluator that didn’t like the deal for the Mets, but as 18- and 19-year-old kids, we are years away from knowing how good or bad this deal was. When I update my top 20 prospect list, I figure Vargas will be squarely in the top 10 of the Mets system and Hernandez will be on the fringe of the top 20. This is the first of more deals to come as we approach the Aug. 1 deadline.
