BOYS BASKETBALL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS: Benjamin headlines quality group of regional contenders
It only takes three wins to reach a regional tournament.
Seems easy enough.
But that juncture of the postseason is very elusive. There’s a reason many schools celebrate their qualification for a regional tournament by cutting down the nets. It’s an achievement many great teams have failed to reach.
After predicting the tournament fields for regions relevant to the TRN Sports coverage area on the girls side last week, it’s time to do the same for the boys.
More: HIGH SCHOOL BASKETBALL: Wichita Falls area playoff schedule
Hirschi and City View have qualified for consecutive regional tournaments with both teams winning its respective region and advancing to state two years ago.
It was Benjamin prevailing with a regional championship in 2023, making the trek to San Antonio for the state tournament.
Can the Mustangs, and the nation’s leading scorer Grayson Rigdon, make a return trip? Will City View and/or Hirschi make it three regional tournaments in a row?
Or will a different team like Burkburnett, Nocona or Electra traverse a difficult path to region?
My best guess is below. Just as with the girls, I typically get between 70 to 85 percent of these choices correct. Last year, I hit 75 percent, picking the I-5A, I-4A and II-A fields exactly right.
REGION I-5A
Tournament Site – Kay Yeager Coliseum
Final Four – Amarillo High vs. Mansfield Summit; El Paso Chapin vs. Midlothian High
The first three choices here are the favorites in their respective quadrants. In fact, all three have been to the other two Region I-5A Tournaments held at the KYC.
Summit is the defending Region I-5A champion. Amarillo High has played in the last two Region I-5A championship games. Chapin is consistently producing Division I talent.
The fourth choice is tough to project. There are at least five teams to be taken seriously as contenders, including Midlothian High, Colleyville Heritage, Brewer, Mansfield Timberview and Argyle.
Midlothian plays Heritage and Timberview meets Argyle in the opening round, meaning any of those two could be one and done or advance to the regional tournament.
I settled on Midlothian because of the most recent results. The Panthers’ losses have come by narrow margins. And in a wide open portion of the bracket, taking a three seed seems to payoff at times.
REGION I-4A
Tournament Site – Rip Griffin Center, Lubbock
Final Four – Canyon Randall vs. Krum; Canyon High vs. Burkburnett
Local teams – Hirschi, Burkburnett, Graham
Burkburnett or Hirschi could end up in the Region I-4A Tournament, but it’s Burkburnett that may have picked up the more manageable overall path to Lubbock.
The Huskies draw Krum in the third round, and the Bobcats already own a 20-point victory over Hirschi that can’t be ignored. Now, the Huskies have players on the roster that weren’t there when they played Krum. It’s a game Hirschi can win, but I’m giving the lopsided result credit.
Meanwhile, Burkburnett starts with a Springtown team it has already beaten handily, then a Glen Rose squad that’s solid but not great. The Bulldogs draw No. 9 Lubbock Estacado in the third round, but rumor has it that Rider grad Tony Wagner’s Matadors have been hit by some untimely injuries.
Maybe Estacado gets healthy within a week, but a good shooting night for the Bulldogs can propel them to the regional tournament. A bad shooting night could doom the Bulldogs before they can even earn a matchup with the Matadors.
While Region I-4A is decided in Lubbock, the championship goes through Canyon. Randall won the region last season and is even better this year. Plus, the Raiders are playing in honor of coach Leslie Broadhurst.
Broadhurst is the only head coach in the program’s history and was recently diagnosed with a brain tumor. He’s being treated in Houston, and the Raiders are pushing for a return to state in his honor.
REGION I-3A
Tournament Site – Frenship High School, Wolfforth
Final Four – Childress vs. Brock; Shallowater vs. City View
Local teams – Holliday, City View, Vernon, Iowa Park
This projection is very similar to the Region I-4A prediction regarding local teams.
Holliday was the undefeated District 7-3A champion, and yet, No. 2 seed City View had a more manageable path to the regional tournament.
The No. 1 seed puts Holliday on a path with Brock in the third round.
Holliday is going to have the best player on the floor every night with Keitenn Bristow, but Brock is going to be able to throw a lot of bodies at him the way City View did two weeks ago. The Mustangs almost upset Holliday by doing it.
City View’s quadrant of the bracket is wide open. The Mustangs likely draw District 6-3A champion Wall in the second round, then either Peaster, Vernon or Llano is the third.
The Mustangs finished the regular season playing great basketball. They’re peaking at the right time and can make a third straight regional tournament appearance.
Childress is the defending Region I-3A champion, but the No. 2 seed from 2-3A behind Shallowater, which is ranked second in the state and the favorite to win this region.
REGION II-2A
Tournament Site – McKinney North High School, McKinney
Final Four – Lipan vs. North Hopkins; Poolville vs. Honey Grove
Local teams – Nocona, Seymour, Windthorst, Archer City
It’s not surprising that District 9-2A champion Nocona has the area’s best chance of reaching the Region II-2A Tournament. The Indians went undefeated in district action and played a difficult non-district schedule.
But I’m leaning toward Poolville to make it out of Nocona’s quadrant, and it’s all because of one name.
Doug Boxell.
Boxell is one of the state’s most successful basketball coaches and everywhere he goes, his teams tend to contend for regional and state titles.
Poolville is in District 12-2A with defending state champion Lipan and played the Indians within six and four points, respectively. But Poolville also had its hands full with Windthorst twice – an opponent Nocona beat more handily.
It looks like a good game on paper, but it’s hard to pick against Boxell, who is well known in Montague County for leading Bowie to a state championship in 2018.
REGION II-A
Tournament Site – The Coliseum, Snyder
Final Four – Irion County vs. Benjamin; Garden City vs. Westbrook
Local teams – Benjamin, Knox City, Electra, Munday, Crowell
Benjamin isn’t as much of a shoo-in to make the Region II-A Tournament as many may think. That’s because the Mustangs must get through District 15-A champion and Knox County rival Knox City.
Those two likely meet in the third round, and while the Greyhounds have a lot of depth and several guys who can score, it didn’t keep them from losing by 29 to Benjamin at the same juncture last season.
Irion County and Garden City made the regional tournament last season, both coming out of District 11-A.
And also like last year, the bottom part quadrant of the bracket is the most wide open. Munday emerged from it last season, but it may be Electra’s turn to prevail.
That said, Westbrook’s recent win against Knox City caught my attention. Yes, it was a warm up game, but it’s impressive all the same, and convinces me to pick the Wildcats.
REGION III-A
Tournament Site – Mansfield High School, Mansfield
Final Four – Gordon vs. Perrin-Whitt; Huckabay vs. Graford
Local teams – Forestburg, Newcastle, Bryson, Bellevue
The choices here are the top two teams from District 19-A and District 21-A.
Graford has won the last two Class A state championships. Perrin-Whitt has been trying to chase the Rabbits down in District 21-A, and nearly did so in the last meeting, losing 39-38.
Gordon is coming off a Class A Division I football state championship, and the athleticism they displayed on the field is translating to the basketball court. Huckabay owns a win against Gordon in district play but settled for the No. 2 seed.
This article originally appeared on Wichita Falls Times Record News: Wichita Falls area high school boys basketball playoff predictions
