Bob Asmussen | Can Illini buck history in win-or-go-home game?

Nov. 25—CHAMPAIGN — Yes, I have seen this movie before. A half-dozen "shows" in 34 years covering the Illinois football team.

This week is lucky No. 7. That's how many seasons Illinois bowl hopes went down to the final game, like it is this Saturday when Illinois (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten) hosts Northwestern (6-5, 4-4) at 2:30 p.m. at Memorial Stadium.

Care to guess how many times Illinois came up on the win side of win or go home? Illinois fans are not going to like the answer: once.

And it may be a surprising victory. In 2014, Tim Beckman's last team actually needed to win its final two to become bowl eligible.

Former News-Gazette All-State Player of the Year Reilly O'Toole threw for 157 yards and a touchdown in relief of Wes Lunt against Penn State. Mikey Dudek, in the middle of a banner rookie season, finished with 115 yards on 11 catches. (Oh, how good would Dudek have been if not for injuries).

David Reisner connected on a 36-yard field goal in the final seconds for a 16-14 Illinois victory.

The next week at Northwestern, O'Toole started in place of an ineffective Lunt and had the game of his career. The guy from the same high school that gave Illinois legend Red Grange (Wheaton Warrenville South), O'Toole threw for 147 yards and ran for 147 in a 47-33 shocker at Ryan Field in Evanston.

That meant a bowl bid for the Illini, which is this case was the Heart of Dallas at the yucky Cotton Bowl. The magic didn't continue, Louisiana Tech winning 35-18.

Still, Illinois came through in the clutch. For the only time in the last three and half decades.

The down sideSo one good means five that didn't go so well.

I remember every one like they were yesterday.

I'm just a reporter with no stake in the outcome. Hard to imagine the feeling of being on the doorstep of another game, but not be able to walk through.

The first last-game loss at Illinois I experienced was in 1993, Lou Tepper's second season as coach. The team had plenty of talent, including star linebackers Dana Howard, Kevin Hardy and Simeon Rice.

But Illinois got off to an 0-3 start, including home losses to Oregon and Arizona that weren't helped by the officials. The team won five of its next six to get close, including a rare win at Michigan, but dropped its final two at No. 16 Penn State and at home against No. 14 Wisconsin.

The Rose Bowl-bound Badgers never gave the Illini a chance in a 35-10 victory.

Two years later, with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks in the upcoming NFL draft (Hardy and Rice) leading the way, Illinois went to Camp Randall Stadium with a 5-5 record.

Then-Illinois athletic director Ron Guenther worked to try to find Illinois a bowl invitation. Turned out, the effort was wasted.

The teams played to a 3-3 tie, the last in FBS history. Thankfully, the overtime rule was adopted the next season, but it was too late for Rice and Hardy.

You can ask current Illinois athletic director Josh Whitman what happened in 2000.

Illinois went to Evanston with a 5-5 record, needing a win for its second consecutive bowl bid. Unfortunately for Ron Turner's team, star quarterback Kurt Kittner suffered a concussion in the previous game, a close home loss to No. 13 Ohio State.

Champaign native Dustin Ward threw for 246 yards in place of Kittner, but Northwestern overwhelmed the Illinois defense in a 61-23 victory. It was most points by the Wildcats in 56 yards.

Northwestern kept Illinois out of a bowl again in 2008, stuffing Ron Zook's team 27-10 in Evanston and setting off a wild celebration at Ryan Field.

Illinois could have clinched a bowl bid earlier in the year, but dropped a six-point decision against Western Michigan in Detroit and a seven-point home game to Minnesota. Illinois did trounce Michigan that season in Ann Arbor, but the 25-point victory only counted once.

The most recent win-or-go-home game for Illinois before this season was in 2015, Bill Cubit's one campaign as Illinois coach.

Illinois started the season 5-4 but dropped its final three to No. 2 Ohio State, at Minnesota and against Northwestern at Soldier Field. Remember that Mike Thomas-produced disaster in Chicago? Illinois gave away Memorial Stadium games to play at the home of the Bears. Not a good idea.

Northwestern took advantage of the near-home game with a 24-14 victory. It was Northwestern's 10th win of the season.

Shortly before the game, Cubit was given a two-year contract to remain as coach, a deal what was soon squashed by new AD Whitman, who brought in Lovie Smith.

What's it going to be?This is the first time for Bret Bielema in a win-or-go-home situation at Illinois. Of course, as he said earlier in the week, he was hoping to take care of the bowl eligibility last Saturday at Iowa. Not to be as the Hawkeyes found a way to wrap up the Big Ten West with a 15-13 win.

Bielema's approach this week seems to be the proper one. Concentrate on improved Northwestern and let the bowl bid take care of itself.

Despite missing important pieces, especially on offense, Bielema has the best player in the game, Johnny Newton. In his final appearance at Memorial Stadium and in an Illinois uniform, it will be a shocker if the likely All-American defensive tackle doesn't come up big.

Senior Day is an emotional roller coaster the coaching staff and captains have to handle. Much better to leave the building with a smile on your face instead of a frown.

One issue for Illinois this season has been an inability to put an opponent away. All the victories — and some of the losses — are by close scores, with Illinois winning by just a combined 15 points in its five wins.

That has been the Bielema way so far at Illinois. His teams play good defense and have a chance to win in the end.

But there is nothing wrong with icing the game in, say, the third quarter. That way, the fans can celebrate and the players can start thinking about what's next.

And what the final score is by the time Saturday evening rolls around will determine a lot about what's next for Illinois.