The ‘Bo Nix for Heisman’ argument is rooted in consistency heading into November
It’s been a topic of conversation nationally since back in August when a pair of billboards went up in New York City and Dallas, announcing his Heisman Trophy campaign to the world.
Ever since then, Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix has been involved when talking about the most prestigious individual award in college football. It hasn’t been until this past week that he’s really thrust himself into the top tier of contenders, though.
The No. 6 Ducks are rolling at the moment, and while they suffered their first loss of the season a few weeks ago at the hands of the No. 5 Washington Huskies, it has done very little to slow the momentum of Nix or his team. Oregon is coming off of a big-time blowout win over No. 13 Utah, and their QB just put up yet another impressive stat line that has him among the top four Heisman candidates, according to betting odds.
At this point in the season, deciding on who you think deserves the Heisman forces you to nitpick. Any of the top candidates — Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Florida State’s Jordan Travis, and Nix — are all deserving of the award. But finding out which one separates from the rest of the pack requires a fine tooth comb.
Personally, when I look at the year-long and game-by-game stats from the players in that group, it’s the consistency that makes Nix stand apart in my opinion.
While his highs may not be quite as high as the others — just twice has Nix thrown for more than 300 yards, or had 4 passing TD in a game this year — his lows are nowhere near the lows that other candidates have seen. Through eight games, Oregon’s QB is yet to pass for fewer than 245 yards and 2 TD in a single game.
You know what you’re going to get when No. 10 takes the field, and that has to matter at some point, especially when you’re comparing a group of the best players in the nation.
To highlight how rare this consistency is, I went through the top Heisman candidates and dissected their stats, highlighting the highs, making note of the lows, and seeing where it gets us in the end. There’s a ton of football left to be played, and the month of November in college football is when Heisman winners are made. Going into this last month, though, here’s a good basis to build off of.
Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Heisman Betting Odds: +260
2023 Season Statistics: 203-for-294 (69.0%), 2,945 yards, 24 TD, 6 INT
Best Game: 29-for-40 (72.5%), 450 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT
Worst Game: 27-for-42 (64%), 273 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
Average Stats: 25-for-37 (67.5), 368 yards, 3 TD, 0.75 INT
Analysis: It’s easy to look at the season-long stats and the per-game averages for Penix and see why he is leading the Heisman conversation. His highs are incredibly high, but he does have a couple of duds in there over the past couple of weeks. In close wins over Arizona and Arizona State, Penix has a combined 0 TD and 2 INT. There are reports that the Washington QB has been battling an illness recently, so we can wait and see if he bounces back in November while the Huskies make their final push.
Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Heisman Betting Odds: +300
2023 Season Statistics: 132-for-169 (78.1%), 1,799 yards, 18 TD, 3 INT
Best Game: 21-for-27 (77.8), 287 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
Worst Game: 8-for-13 (61%), 143 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT
Average Stats: 16-for-21 (76%), 224 yards, 2.25 TD, 0.38 INT
Analysis: The completion percentage for McCarthy certainly stands out, but it needs to be noted that he has by far the fewest attempts among anyone on this list. Michigan simply doesn’t ask him to do a ton, relying on the running game instead. When he’s good, he’s good, but when he’s bad, it wasn’t too pretty — displayed by that 3 INT game earlier this year. However, winning is usually the No. 1 metric in deciding a Heisman finalist, and there are few teams, if any, better than Michigan this year.
LSU QB Jayden Daniels
Heisman Betting Odds: +450
2023 Season Statistics: 163-for-223 (73.1%), 2,573 yards, 25 TD, 3 INT
Best Game: 27-for-36 (75%), 414 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
Worst Game: 22-for-37 (59%), 346 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Average Stats: 20-for-27 (73%), 321 yards, 3 TD, 0.38 INT
Analysis: I honestly think that Jayden Daniels has the most Heisman-worthy stats on this list, but again, winning is the ultimate metric, and LSU has two losses so far, likely knocking them out of the CFP picture. Despite that, Daniels’ averages are high, his best game is impressive, and his worst game isn’t all that bad. He fits the bill in my opinion, if it weren’t for that two-loss record.
Oregon QB Bo Nix
Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports
Heisman Betting Odds: +600
2023 Season Statistics: 206-for-263 (78.3%), 2,337 yards, 21 TD, 1 INT
Best Game: 27-for-32 (84.4%), 290 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
Worst Game: 18-for-25 (72%), 293 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Average Stats: 26-for-33 (79%), 292 yards, 2.6 TD, 0.125 INT
Analysis: It’s not hard to see that Nix’s best game looks pretty similar to his worst game. Both of them look right on par with his average game. That’s the consistency that we’re talking about. While detractors can easily point to the fact that Nix has only had one game with more than 350 yards, it’s the high floor that makes Oregon’s QB as valuable as he is. Sure, a 400-yard day with 4 TD would be beneficial (California and USC will bring their porous defenses into Autzen within the next 2 weeks) but a lot of credence has to be shown for the consistent, high-level production that Nix is bringing to the table.
Florida State QB Jordan Travis
Heisman Betting Odds: +750
2023 Season Statistics: 164-for-253 (64.8%), 2,109 yards, 18 TD, 2 INT
Best Game: 22-for-35 (62.9%), 359 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
Worst Game: 15-for-29 (51%), 175 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Average Stats: 21-for-32 (66%), 263 yards, 2.25 TD, 0.25 INT
Analysis: The numbers look good, but it’s the lack of efficiency that knocks Jordan Travis to the bottom of the list in my opinion. His numbers are on par with other QBs in the Heisman conversation, but his completion percentage is far below where it should be. However, Florida State is an early favorite to make it into the College Football Playoff, so like J.J. McCarthy, it won’t be a shock to see Travis make it to New York for the ceremony in December.
Final Analysis
There’s a reason that this award is given out at the start of December, rather than the end of October. The month of November is what separates the contenders from the pretenders in the world of college football, and there will be plenty of opportunities for “Heisman Moments” over the next several weeks. At this point, though, I’m of the opinion that we need to be looking more at an entire body of work for a player, rather than combing through the stats and finding the best weeks they’ve had.
The worst weeks matter almost just as much. For Nix, those “worst weeks” would be considered elite for many quarterbacks across the nation. We’ll see if he can boost up some of his “best weeks” over the next month.
