BNP Paribas Open 2024: Under-the-radar candidates to win title at Indian Wells

What drives most fans to the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells is the big names. The field consistently consists of all the top 75 men's and women's players putting on a show for two weeks every March.

But inevitably, an unknown commodity makes a name for him or herself at this event. Either leaping into the national consciousness entirely or at least elevating themselves to the A-list from the B-list.

Naomi Osaka was a virtual unknown outside the top 50 when she won here in 2018. The next year it was Bianca Andreescu bursting on the scene with an unlikely win to catapult her into the limelight. In 2021, Cam Norrie on the men's side and Paula Badosa on the women's side were known commodities but entered a new echelon with career-defining wins.

Here are six candidates — three men and three women — that fit the bill and could be the 2024 BNP Paribas Open breakout star.

Ben Shelton, United States

Why him: Around this time last year, rising American star Ben Shelton was starting to jump on the tennis radar. That was evident when he faced off against compatriot Taylor Fritz in one of the most highly-attended first-round matches of all time at the BNP Paribas Open as the two American phenoms packed Stadium 1 on the first Friday. It was the biggest crowd of the entire tournament. Shelton has gone on to have continued success, but still hasn't had a breakthrough win. Unseeded in Indian Wells last year, he's risen to No. 16 in the latest world rankings. Perhaps, like Fritz in 2022, Shelton can wow the crowd and have that signature win.

Qinwen Zheng, China

Why her: Only 21, Zheng already had her burst-on-the-scene moment at the Australian Open when she made it all the way to the championship match before finishing runner-up to Aryna Sabalenka. Before that, though, Zheng had been quietly moving up the rankings and is now a top-10 player. This will only be her second appearance at the BNP Paribas Open. She did not play in Indian Wells last year after making her debut in 2022, going 1-1 before being ousted by Angelique Kerber. But fans will be excited to see her play. She likes to control points from the baseline, which usually works well on hard courts, even the slower courts at Indian Wells.

Holger Rune, Denmark

Why him: The 20-year-old Dane has accomplished a lot already in his career, ascending as high as No. 4 in the world rankings. But Rune is still a relatively unknown commodity to the casual tennis fan. Not for long, I suspect. Rune does have one Masters 1000 title, winning in Paris in 2022, but he is looking to pad his resume with more signature wins. The BNP Paribas Open would certainly qualify, but he hasn't had much success here. This will be Rune's fourth appearance in Indian Wells where he holds a 2-3 record, with his best finish coming last year when he lost in the third round despite being the No. 7 seed. Solid in every phase of the game, Rune's skillset is often compared to Novak Djokovic's. Learning how to win the big events is the next step in his career, and the 2024 BNP Paribas Open might be a good place to start.

Jasmine Paolini, Italy

Why her: While most in the breakthrough category are emerging players, the 28-year-old Paolini has been around the circuit for a while. Paolini seems to have reached a new level, as evidenced by her victory Feb. 24 in the Dubai tournament, a Masters 1000 event. It was her second career title and the biggest of her career for the gritty baseliner. The win, which included victories over Beatriz Haddad-Maia, Maria Sakkari and Elena Rybakina (walkover), vaulted her to her highest career singles ranking of No. 14. Riding the hot hand, Paolini will enter the 2024 BNP Paribas Open with newfound confidence. She has not done well in the biggest events. In her 17 Grand Slam events, she's only made it past the second round once. That was, you guessed it, at the 2024 Australian Open when she made it to the fourth round. So it's clear she's playing the best tennis of her life. Her best finish in her three appearances in Indian Wells was a third-round finish in 2021 and 2022. Last year, she was knocked out in the first round.

Chris Eubanks, United States

Why him: If you're looking for a longshot on the men's field, you could do worse than Eubanks. A late bloomer on tour, the 27-year-old had by far his best year in 2023. He entered the national consciousness with a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon in 2023, in which he beat Cam Norrie and Stefanos Tsitsipas before falling in five sets to Daniil Medvedev. At the start of 2023, he was No. 123 in the world rankings. He is currently No. 34. He has never made it past the second round in Indian Wells and in fact lost in the qualifier round at Indian Wells in 2023, but his game has never been at this level. He also has familiarity with the venue, particularly Stadium 2, as he was part of the U.S. Team Tennis season that took place at Indian Wells in 2022. He's an exciting player to watch in that he has a big serve, but also loves to come to the net.

Anna Kalinskaya, Russia

Why her: Call it recency bias, but it's hard to put together a more impressive run than the 24-year-old Kalinskaya had at the most recent Masters 1000 Tournament in Dubai. Kalinskaya finished as the runner-up in the event, but beat world No. 3 Coco Gauff in the quarterfinal and world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the semifinal. So it's hard to deny that she has the talent to make a deep run in any event, the BNP Paribas Open included. It's the continuation of a trend in 2024 that also saw Kalinskaya have her best finish at a Grand Slam event when she reached the quarterfinals in Australia. She is flying up the rankings. On Jan. 1, she was ranked No. 80 in the World Rankings. Now she is No. 24 and will be a seeded player in Indian Wells. She has a 6-3 record at the BNP Paribas Open, including a nice run to the fourth round as a qualifier in 2021.

Shad Powers is a columnist for The Desert Sun. Reach him at shad.powers@desertsun.com.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: BNP Paribas Open: Under-the-radar candidates to win Indian Wells title