Blue Jays take intriguing risk with Shoemaker signing
All offseason the Toronto Blue Jays made it clear they were looking for a rotation upgrade and on Friday they made their first move to address that need.
OFFICIAL: We've signed RHP Matt Shoemaker to a 1-year contract.
Shoemaker holds a career 3.93 ERA over 6 seasons in the big leagues. pic.twitter.com/Wi12VKrUM2
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) December 28, 2018
Matt Shoemaker's deal with the Toronto Blue Jays has a $3.5 million guarantee and can add another $1 million in performance bonuses, per source. While it's a one-year deal, the Blue Jays control Shoemaker for the 2020 season as well because he'll be just shy of six service years.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 28, 2018
Shoemaker is a risky add for the Blue Jays who also presents significant upside. The 32-year-old has pitched just 108.2 innings in the major leagues in the past two seasons do to a forearm injury that first occurred in 2017 and then returned the following year. In that time he’s managed an unexceptional 4.64 ERA with a 4.62 FIP and 4.60 xFIP to match. He’s missed bats (8.45 K/9), but he’s also struggled with the long ball (1.49 HR/9).
Those numbers don’t make him sound like a guy with much potential – especially considering his age – but as recently as 2016 he was outstanding. That year, he posted a WAR of 3.5 in 160 innings thanks to a 3.88 ERA and 3.52 FIP with a very low walk rate (1.69 BB/K).
While he would be hard pressed to replicate those numbers, Shoemaker hasn’t lost any velocity since his career season and has used the same pitch mix. Without his injuries it’s possible he would have kept rolling. That’s a major caveat for him though. He’s hardly been a reliable workhorse and has never topped 160 innings in an MLB season.
Stylistically speaking, Shoemaker is a flyball pitcher, who throws his fastball in the low 90’s with a slider, a splitter, and a rarely-used curveball. That’s a bit of a scary profile for the AL East, but low velocity flyball guys like Marco Estrada and Tyler Clippard have thrived with the Blue Jays before.
The most probable scenario for Shoemaker is probably for him to provide middle-of-the-pack production and encounter some kind of injury trouble in 2019. There’s a reason why he was non-tendered by the Los Angels Angels in November. That said, as a back-of-the-rotation guy he’s got a higher ceiling than most and a palatable price tag to boot.
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