Blue Jays must address starting pitching concerns this off-season

Following a crushing playoff defeat, the Toronto Blue Jays enter this off-season aiming to improve a roster that won 92 games, but among their areas of need, none is more important than the starting pitching.

While the club’s bullpen proved disastrous in Game 2 of the wild card series, much of that group will be returning in 2023. The same, however, can’t be said about their starting rotation, as there’s plenty of uncertainty behind right-handers Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

The Blue Jays feature two extremely reliable front-line starters, although it’s difficult to gauge what type of production they’ll receive aside from those two arms next season. There’s optimism that José Berríos can rebound from his head-scratching 5.23 ERA, and rightly so, with six years remaining on his $131 million contract.

But after witnessing a dramatic decrease in strikeouts while allowing more hard contact than ever before, producing career worsts in his strikeout (19.8 percent) and hard-hit rates (43.4 percent), turning things around could be easier said than done.

Hyun Jin Ryu could return from Tommy John surgery at some point in 2023, but even if that occurs, it probably won’t be until after the All-Star break. Luckily, Ross Stripling filled in perfectly after Ryu went down this past season, although his return also isn’t guaranteed.

Stripling can enter free agency for the first time in his career this off-season, and he’s likely to earn a significant raise from his 2022 salary of $3.79 million. The 32-year-old is coming off a career year where he posted career bests in starts (24), innings pitched (134.1), ERA (3.01), FIP (3.11), OPP AVG (.228), HR/9 (0.8) and walk rate (3.7 percent).

The 6-foot-3 righty also added to his case by being worth a career-high 3.1 fWAR, ranking him among the 40 most valuable big-league starters, according to FanGraphs. His 2.64 ERA since Jun. 6 - when he officially replaced Ryu in the rotation - ranked 14th-best in the majors.

And based on Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins’ comments from Tuesday’s end-of-season press conference, the front office doesn’t appear overly confident about its chances of re-signing Stripling.

Toronto is likely to face a payroll crunch as its young core becomes increasingly more expensive this winter. The closer the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Bo Bichette inch to free agency, the fewer resources there will be to spend on complementary pieces.

Unfortunately, Stripling will probably fall into that category in the coming months as he looks to cash in on the best statistical performance of his career. As a three-win pitcher, history suggests that he should command at least $10 million per season moving forward - if not more.

The Blue Jays, however, aren’t in a position to enter a bidding war for Stripling’s services. And at this point, the versatile hurler has seemingly already priced himself out of a return to Toronto.

Replacing the former Los Angeles Dodger won’t be easy, though, especially with a lack of quality depth behind him. The team’s list of internal candidates is fairly bleak at the moment, starting with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White.

Kikuchi remains under contract through 2024, earning $10 million per season. But after producing a 5.25 ERA across 20 starts this past season, should his time as a starter be over? Perhaps. The 31-year-old lefty was effective as a reliever down the stretch, allowing just one hit and two walks while striking out 10 over his final four outings.

Then there’s White, who struggled mightily to find his footing with the Blue Jays. After being acquired from the Dodgers, the 27-year-old faltered to a 7.74 ERA, albeit a favourable 3.76 FIP, over 43.0 innings in 10 appearances.

In all likelihood, the Blue Jays will need to add at least two starting pitchers this winter after receiving little value beyond their big four arms. Overall, starters other than Manoah, Gausman, Berríos and Stripling were 6-15 with a miserable 6.26 ERA and 5.24 FIP over 44 starts.

The group of Ryu, Kikuchi, White, Max Castillo, Thomas Hatch and four openers started 27.2 percent of Toronto’s games in 2022, and were worth -0.1 fWAR. The organization must improve the backend of its starting rotation to avoid a similar fate next season.

What are the Blue Jays’ options this off-season? Well, they could scour through free agency for mid-tier starting pitchers. Or, if ownership is willing to splurge on a future Hall-of-Fame pitcher, they could target Justin Verlander.

The 39-year-old, who nearly signed north of the border last winter, would dramatically transform Toronto’s pitching staff if acquired. His asking price wouldn’t be cheap, though it could be well worth the reward as he’s currently among the favourites to win the 2022 AL Cy Young.

Presuming the front office takes a more frugal approach, they could look to Chris Bassitt or Andrew Heaney, who’d each cost significantly less than Verlander. But either pitcher - or both - could still provide plenty of value.

Bassitt was traded to the New York Mets post-lockout and enjoyed a strong performance during his inaugural campaign, registering a 3.42 ERA and 3.66 FIP across a career-high 181.2 innings. The 33-year-old was also worth 2.7 fWAR, the second-best mark of his career.

Heaney, who finished last season with the New York Yankees, returned to the Dodgers on a one-year, prove-it deal and did just that. The 31-year-old lefty produced career bests in ERA (3.10), xERA (3.39), OPP AVG (.213) and strikeout rate (35.5 percent) in 72.2 innings.

A nagging shoulder injury limited the former ninth overall selection from 2012 to just 14 starts and 1.1 fWAR, but that could allow the Blue Jays to land him on a team-friendly multi-year contract.

The team may also be interested in left-hander Wade Miley, who threw just 37.0 innings due to shoulder and oblique injuries, but is only one season removed from his 3.37 ERA and 3.0 fWAR in 163.0 innings with the Cincinnati Reds. It’d be a low-risk, high-reward signing.

Free agency isn’t the only route Toronto could take as exploring the trade market may also prove useful. Management may utilize its well-developed prospect system and intriguing major-league position player group to improve its starting rotation.

Arizona’s Merrill Kelly could potentially be available with two guaranteed years left on his current $18 million contract. It also includes a $7 million club option for 2025. The right-hander will be entering his age-34 season in 2023, however, he is coming off a career year with the Diamondbacks.

Kelly made 33 starts this past season, earning a 3.37 ERA, 3.62 xERA and 3.65 FIP over 200.1 innings. The 6-foot-2 hurler was also worth a career-best 3.3 fWAR, and at $8.3 million per season through 2024, he could be a steal.

The Miami Marlins will also likely be open for business this off-season as they attempt to acquire more offence. With the Blue Jays as a potential match, right-hander Pablo López could be on their radar if trade negotiations materialize.

López, who’s under team control through 2024, finished his fifth professional season with a 3.75 ERA and 3.71 FIP over 180.0 innings, resulting in a career-high 2.8 fWAR. The 26-year-old struggled in the second half, though, performing to a 4.97 ERA. Still, he remains one of the more talented young starters in the sport.

There could be another low-risk, high-reward transaction available if the Blue Jays are willing to accept a reclamation project. Oakland’s Paul Blackburn, who is first-time arbitration-eligible this winter, could feature previously untapped potential.

The 28-year-old posted a 4.28 ERA, 4.14 xERA and 4.21 FIP across 111.1 innings in 2022. So the right-hander’s results don’t jump off the page, but his six-pitch arsenal might to Toronto’s coaching staff.

Blackburn’s best weapon is a high-70s curveball, though his low-90s sinker, mid-80s changeup, high-70s slider and high-80s cutter have also looked promising at times. With Pete Walker and Matt Buschmann at the helm, he could develop into a sneaky under-the-radar acquisition.

Building reliable depth behind Manoah, Gausman and Berríos is crucial. It’s an aspect that burned the Blue Jays numerous times this past season when someone other than those three - and Stripling - started.

If they can only accomplish one goal this winter, it needs to be that.

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