Blue Jays trade deadline primer: Offensive boost needed for stretch run
The Blue Jays enter Tuesday's trade deadline low on crippling weaknesses, but with plenty of opportunities to upgrade — starting with the offence.
The Toronto Blue Jays enter the trade deadline as a solid team likely headed for the playoffs, which makes them an obvious candidate for an upgrade or two.
What the Blue Jays lack is obvious holes.
Alek Manoah coming back from the minors and the possible return of Hyun-jin Ryu creates a little uncertainty in the rotation, but they have enough to get through a playoff series. The bullpen looks stronger than it has in recent years in light of recent moves. Although the team's lineup has been underwhelming when it comes to scoring runs, its 109 wRC+ ranks seventh in the majors, suggesting it should be among MLB's best with a little more timely hitting.
You could look at this roster as currently constructed and come to the conclusion it would have a puncher's chance to make something happen in the playoffs.
Even so, the Blue Jays front office is likely to field countless calls in the hours leading up to the Aug. 1 trade deadline while determining if there's something they can do to make a good team great. There's no guarantee Toronto is in for a whirlwind of a deadline, but it's likely that by the end of Tuesday afternoon this club looks at least a little different.
What the Blue Jays have done already
In the days prior to the deadline, the Blue Jays have already gotten to work on its bullpen.
That process began with the acquisition of Génesis Cabrera on July 21. The Blue Jays scooped up Cabrera in the midst of a difficult season with the St. Louis Cardinals but he's looked solid in Toronto so far, giving the team five scoreless innings with a single base runner allowed.
Since joining the Blue Jays the southpaw has put more of an emphasis on his sinker and stopped throwing his changeup, but it's a little early to determine whether he's found something new thanks to his change of scenery.
As it stands, Cabrera gives the team another bullpen lefty, and it can option him to the minor leagues if his struggles return.
On Sunday, Toronto made a bigger move by adding Cardinals closer — and notorious provider of triple-digit heat — Jordan Hicks. Unlike Cabrera, Hicks is no reclamation project. He's an experienced high-leverage reliever in the midst of a strong season.
At the time the Blue Jays started hollowing out the St. Louis bullpen with the Cabrera trade, their own relief corps already ranked fourth in the majors in ERA (3.62). A Jordan Romano back injury has muddied the waters slightly, but this was never a weak unit in desperate need of reinforcements — it was a solid group that just got a shot in the arm.
Presuming Romano is ultimately OK, the Blue Jays bullpen will feature two true-blue closers (Romano and Hicks), two solid high-leverage righties (Erik Swanson and Yimi Garcia), a southpaw with a 1.22 ERA (Tim Mayza), a versatile multi-inning threat having a career year (Trevor Richards), as well as Cabrera and whoever of Jay Jackson or Nate Pearson has the most to offer at the time.
Not only that, but Chad Green — whose 7.5 fWAR ranks 13th among all relievers since 2016 despite the fact he hasn't pitched since last May — is nearing his return to the majors. He's a bit of a wild card following his Tommy John surgery, but it's possible Toronto will be getting another high-end bullpen arm down the stretch.
What the Blue Jays are likely to do
Because Toronto will have a hard time upgrading around the infield, at the catcher position, or in the bullpen, there are only so many lanes for them.
The rotation is a possibility, but for 2023 only a move at the very top makes sense as they have more than enough viable options for a playoff series. There's an argument to be made that José Berríos and Chris Bassitt don't match up with some contenders' second and third starters, but both are in the midst of strong seasons and there aren't many true top-of-the-rotation guys available.
If Toronto acquires a starter, it's probably going to be more of a depth player with term and a minor-league option or two — something general manager Ross Atkins has hinted at before. When Ryu returns, the team may have six guys capable of taking a start, but the team is devoid of depth beyond that.
Grabbing a starter who could serve as insurance in the near term would be helpful, and that player could potentially challenge for a larger role down the line.
Considering the Blue Jays rank 14th in the majors in run scoring, they are also likely to seek out offensive upgrades.
The easiest avenue to explore would a righty bat, ideally with the ability to play the outfield. Toronto has three regulars — Brandon Belt, Daulton Varsho, and Kevin Kiermaier — who are theoretically best left on the shelf against elite southpaw pitching.
Playing two catchers is a smart way to replace Belt, but it's tough to deal with the other two spots.
Kiermaier has done surprisingly well against lefties this year (112 wRC+), but that's hard to trust based on his career numbers. Starting Santiago Espinal and moving Whit Merrifield from second to the outfield has also been an underwhelming strategy as the utility man has hit a brutal .224/.288/.328 with the platoon advantage this year.
That means the Blue Jays are likely to pursue someone they can use against left-handers — primarily in favour of Varsho. In an ideal world, that player would be good enough that they'd be capable of taking Varsho's job outright down the stretch if the defensively-gifted outfielder continues to be lost at the plate.
Tommy Pham might be the most logical candidate. The New York Mets outfielder is having a strong season overall (127 wRC+) and he's been even more effective against lefties (135 wRC+).
The 35-year-old has a long history of mashing lefties with a 132 wRC+ against them in 1,027 career plate appearances.
Another option that stands out is Lane Thomas.
The former Blue Jays draft pick is in the midst of a strong season and he's hit a massive .362/.407/.638 against lefties this year. That comes from just 140 trips to the dish, but it's impressive nonetheless. In 439 career plate appearances against lefties his slash line is still excellent, sitting at .309/.369/.534.
Thomas is a more complicated proposition that Pham, as he still has three years of team control. That means he'd be far more costly than the veteran rental, but he could also compete for a job in 2024 when Kiermaier is likely to hit free agency while Varsho moves to centre field.
On paper, former Blue Jay Teoscar Hernández could be a fit as he's crushed lefties in 2023 (138 wRC+) despite having a rough season overall.
The Seattle Mariners might not be fond of the PR implications of trading a significant package for one season of Hernandez then swapping him back to the team they got him from for far less. Unless Toronto's offer is the best by a significant margin, Seattle may look elsewhere.
Toronto would do well to end Tuesday with another useful bat, but the type of player they need is scarce enough that there's no guarantee they pull that off.
What would be a surprising swing for Toronto?
Although it's easy to envision the Blue Jays addressing their most obvious needs with players who are clearly available, it's possible they think outside the box.
One way they could do that is by outbidding other teams for an elite starter to add some oomph to their projected playoff rotation. That could mean prying pending free agent Blake Snell away from the San Diego Padres or trying to convince the Chicago White Sox they are fundamentally broken enough to deal Dylan Cease.
It seems more likely that a big move coming out of nowhere would be for an infield player who can provide value in 2023 and take a starting spot in 2024. That would be handy for Toronto with Matt Chapman's contract expiring and Whit Merrifield holding an $18-million mutual option in 2024 that will almost certainly be declined on one side or the other.
Ha-Seong Kim is a candidate for such a move as he's only under team control through 2024 and Padres GM A.J. Preller isn't afraid of an unconventional move. Kim is extremely inexpensive with a $7-million AAV, and he's in the midst of a career year that's seen him tee off against lefty pitching (.317/.397/.550).
If the Padres consider their 2023 season a lost cause, getting a significant package for Kim could be worthwhile for Preller. In Kim the Blue Jays would acquire an elite on-base man and speed threat capable of slotting in at second base against lefties — and moving around as needed to grab at-bats against right-handers — before taking over at the keystone full-time in 2024.
Another idea in a similar vein would be making a deal for Jake Burger of the Chicago White Sox. Burger has warts in the form of substandard defence and a tendency to strike out, but he's also got massive power with a max exit velocity (118.2 mph) that ranks third in the majors.
Not only is the third baseman and DH having a strong year, he's also a certified lefty masher who's hit .256/.333/.586 against southpaws in his career.
His fit on the Blue Jays is imperfect at the moment, but the White Sox have used him at second base occasionally this year and he'd be a better DH complement for Belt than either of the team's catchers. Bigger-picture, he'd be under team control through 2029 and could be a long-term answer at third.
Like Kim, he's not the type of player who is usually traded at this time of year, but a Blue Jays team that ranks 13th in the majors in home runs could use some power, and Chicago shouldn't be closing too many doors right now.
It's, by definition, difficult to project how the Blue Jays might go off the board and complete a surprising deal, but it's a possibility for a front office that has always put an emphasis on building a sustainable winner.
