Blue Jays' 5 biggest surprises at quarter mark of MLB season
Some Blue Jays have outperformed expectations so far, while others are stuck in surprising slumps.
The Toronto Blue Jays have clear-cut expectations. This is a club that expects to make the playoffs and contend for a World Series, but, at the 40-game mark, not everything has gone according to plan.
Some players have outperformed expectations, while others have laboured through the first chunk of the season. With that in mind, here are the five biggest surprises of the Blue Jays’ 2023 campaign so far.
A new Kikuchi
While Yusei Kikuchi no longer leads the Blue Jays rotation in ERA (3.89), he’s pitching with much more conviction this season. The lefty has chopped down the free passes (1.7 BB/9) and become less strikeout dependent. As a result, his outings are more manageable.
Kikuchi is no longer exhausting himself early in contests and flaming out. He’s composed from the first pitch, and Sunday’s outing, while unideal, was a good example of how teams can beat this new version of Kikuchi. The 31-year-old will always allow homers – that’s how it works for power pitchers – and he surrendered three bombs to the Braves Sunday, but, more importantly, he issued zero free passes. This is progress.
“Sometimes when you attack the zone, you get hit,” Kikuchi said through an interpreter Sunday. “And so we'll go back and check the data and all that, but, yeah, continue to attack the zone moving forward.”
Kikuchi, now refreshed and undeterred by hard contact, gives the Blue Jays starting five a very high floor. And when the back end is firing as it is now, this rotation can go toe-to-toe with any lineup in baseball.
Manoah off the mark
The big man is still chasing that pinpoint command from last season, and boy, has it been elusive. Through eight starts, Alek Manoah has walked 5.5 batters per nine, a massive jump from his 2.3 BB/9 during his AL Cy Young finalist campaign in 2022. But that’s not all. The right-hander’s slider has been batting practice for opposing hitters this year.
Shockingly, the breaking ball’s been worth +11 runs, per Baseball Savant’s run value metric, making it the second-worst pitch in all of baseball. Without the bite to the slider, Manoah’s now also had trouble putting hitters away in two-strike counts.
This isn’t the end for Manoah, though, as he still owns a 4.83 ERA. Even with shaky secondary pitches, he’s crafty enough to find success, so there’s plenty of hope for him as he battles through his first bit of major-league adversity. Still, it’s a big surprise to see the 25-year-old grind so hard.
Kiermaier wowing with hustle, hit tools
Kevin Kiermaier has been a source of non-stop electricity in the Blue Jays lineup. The 33-year-old told the media earlier this season he doesn’t want to hit a single home run; instead, he’s focusing purely on hitting line-drive singles and getting on base. That approach has worked beautifully, as Kiermaier leads all of baseball with hits out of the nine-hole (29).
“I feel like my old self again,” Kiermaier said earlier this year. “I'm running around, having fun, running with adrenaline, just kind of bouncing all over. And that's when you get the best version of me.”
Although his .857 OPS to begin the year is astounding, the Jays can rest comfortably knowing Kiermaier contributes in other ways even if it doesn't hold up (which it most likely won't). The defence is a well-known commodity, but his baserunning has been a fruitful addition to this Jays lineup. Kiermaier’s hustle nearly single-handedly gave Toronto a win Saturday versus the Braves when he legged out two hustle doubles, scored two runs, and swiped a bag.
Springer in a steep slump
The fact this Jays lineup has been so effective even without George Springer playing at his peak is a tribute to its strength. But right now, things aren’t going well for the 33-year-old.
The Jays leadoff hitter’s been ice cold this year, slashing just .225/.287/.331 and producing a minus-0.3 WAR, the 10th-worst mark in baseball. That is hard to believe. Springer’s power has been absent this season; he has just two extra-base hits in his last 75 plate appearances, though part of his struggles can be attributed to a viral illness he’s battled for more than a week.
“I'm just happy to be in the lineup,” Springer said when asked about his health Friday. “I’m not going to make an excuse for it. I’m doing alright, and I’m back out there, so that’s all that matters.”
Second base no longer a timeshare
What manager doesn’t love versatility? Lately, though, the Jays’ platoon at second base has been a one-man show. The emergence of Whit Merrifield, both at the plate and on the bases, combined with the struggles from Toronto’s bench, has made this a very simple recipe.
Start Merrifield; that should be the strategy going forward. Through 32 games, the veteran utility man is hitting .281 and leads the Jays with 12 stolen bases. For Blue Jays fans, this rendition of “Two-Hit Whit” is a revelation. But, for those who know him from his Kansas City days, this is nothing new.
“It's definitely an easier process this year than last year when you're trying to get to know people. So I feel good, excited to show you guys kind of who I am,” Merrifield said in spring training, foreshadowing his return to normalcy.
If Merrifield keeps it up, the Jays won’t have to worry about the sorry production from Santiago Espinal (.484 OPS) or Cavan Biggio (.452 OPS); they can just slot No. 15 in the lineup and let him rip.
