The Super Bowl has a point spread that is very close in Las Vegas, but a computer simulator has figured out who will win.
Using an astounding array of analytics, the Predictalator on PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLIX. And 57.5 percent of the time in its simulations, the Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots.
And from these tens of thousands of simulations, the site has the Seahawks most likely winning by a 24-20 score.
According to the folks who run the Predictalator, the Seahawks are “simply, the team more capable of dominating.”
“For the second straight year in a row, we like Seattle when the vast majority of the public – over 70 percent based on available betting information – believes the AFC is going to win. Much of that perception is likely based off of what happened during conference championship weekend,” Paul Bessire, general manager of PredictionMachine.com told Shutdown Corner.
“I would caution against that mindset, acknowledging that the most important player on the field for the Seahawks [Russell Wilson] had the worst day of his professional career against one of the best teams in the NFL and Seattle still won. It’s tough to expect anyone, Wilson or otherwise, to play that poorly in the Super Bowl. If he and the team around him play up to expectations, Seattle looks like a clear favorite.”
The site uses a variety of inputs to generate strengths and weaknesses for each team, and then lets it simulate 50,000 games. Each game simulates each play, making for a maddening amount of data to cull.
Last year, the Predictalator went against conventional wisdom and picked the Seahawks to beat the heavily favored Denver Broncos. Seattle won 43-8.
In the scenario that emerged from the 50,000 simulations this year, the Seahawks limit Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to 235 passing yards (the Patriots were 3-4 this season in games that Brady threw for less than 250 yards, including Week 17 when he was pulled after playing in the first half).
As for Brady and the Patriots, not even deflate-gate could touch the Predictalator. Not even once in 50,000 simulations.
“Every ball in every simulation we conduct in the regular or postseason is inflated to the proper 12.5 to 13.5 PSI. In 50,000 simulations, that’s a whole lot of balls, none of which seems to lose two-plus PSI during the games,” Bessire said. “That’s 1.5 million properly inflated balls for a normal game and 6 million for this week. It’s an assumption worth revisiting for future seasons, but, fortunately the Super Bowl is the only game all year in which the NFL provides all the balls.”
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Kristian R. Dyer writes for Metro New York and is a contributor to Yahoo! Sports. Follow him on Twitter @KristianRDyer