Binge, Stream and Skip: Fantasy football Week 7 viewer's guide
Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.
Let’s dive into my Week 7 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.
BINGE
DETROIT LIONS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
This is one of my favorite games on the slate but I’m not sure it’ll turn into a fantasy football scoring-fest. Both defenses are excellent, which we expect out of the Ravens generally, but Detroit has been a pleasant and under-discussed surprise. Baltimore ranks second in EPA per play allowed on defense while the Lions check in not far behind at seventh.
So we could certainly see this game turn into a low-scoring slugfest. If so, the most critical storyline to watch will be Jared Goff’s performance. Typically a home/road splits maven, Goff has just been flat-out good this season. He is Pro Football Focus’ top-graded quarterback this season and he’s earned the rating. He’s been accurate and has worked multiple levels of the field.
How he performs outdoors, on the road and against a good defense will be a barometer for the Lions’ projection in the postseason.
Baltimore’s offense is still coalescing. Lamar Jackson is actually right behind Goff, second in PFF’s quarterback grades and fourth in pure passing. I’d argue he’s been not flawless but overall solid in isolation this season. The problem is he’s only getting solid play out of Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers and occasionally Nelson Agholor. The X-receiver rotation between Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman has been a mess as both guys attempt to come back from injuries. We don’t really have a running back emerging from this committee either.
The Ravens being a bit below expectation on offense is another reason I think this could be a great real NFL game but not as appetizing in fantasy football.
Non-obvious players I like
Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens. This is “like” in a loose term. Andrews and Flowers are every-week starters in fantasy and I don’t think we’ll see a Ravens running back earn that title in 2023. That said, Edwards took a commanding lead in the backfield last week with a 61.4% snaps share and ran a route on 43% of the dropbacks. So, if you need a running back who may plunge in a goal-line score during the bye weeks, Edwards makes for a reasonable bet.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: David Montgomery has owned 60.3% of the Lions' team carries (11th-most in the NFL) even though he’s left two games with injuries. We know that, when he’s out there, the Lions have no worries saddling him up with carries. He will miss this game and likely more with another injury. That’s turning into an issue for Detroit but is likely to continue as long as he has such a high touch total. Montgomery won’t even cede the lead back role when healthy, but this is a perfect time to start mixing Jahmyr Gibbs into the rotation to get him reps for the stretch run as a pure rusher.
HC Campbell said Gibbs will need to take the load of the work in Week 7.
"I'd like to say we’re going to be careful with him, but the reality is we need him." https://t.co/rJ21akqep1— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 20, 2023
He handled 17 carries last time Montgomery missed a game.
Don’t be surprised if: Amon-Ra St. Brown has 15-plus targets. Great teams can pivot from one identity of orbit that the whole team can revolve around to another and not lose a beat. That’s what has me confident in the Lions. They can transition from a power-run team to a quick-strike passing game that is centered on St. Brown and that will be the approach on Sunday.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chargers come in licking their wounds after a trademark frustrating loss to the Cowboys. Austin Ekeler should be more comfortable in his second game off an injury layoff, which should jumpstart a stagnant run game. The Chargers will need that to keep Justin Herbert out of negative situations. He was under pressure a ton last week and offered up one of the worst games we’ve seen from him in some time.
The Chiefs are still in exploratory phases with their passing game. They even traded for old friend Mecole Hardman this week just a few months after making little effort to re-sign him. I tend to doubt Hardman plays a huge role right away, but given how frustrating this passing game has been, you can’t rule it out. Their running game has been incredibly effective. Isiah Pacheco has turned out to be one of the most valuable running backs in fantasy football.
Non-obvious players I like
Josh Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers. Palmer ran the second-most routes on the team last week and drew seven targets. He’s not the most exciting player but is involved enough on an offense that should be solid.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Quentin Johnston ran a route on just 44.2% of the dropbacks, fourth-most on the team. Others over 10%: Gerald Everett 55.8%, Parham 26.5% Keelan Doss 14%. For a variety of reasons, Johnston is just not ready to be a consistent factor right now. He’s a developmental receiver they weren’t counting on early but are now forced to get involved after Mike Williams’ injury.
Great piece. This type of start makes sense to me based on Johnston's collegiate RP profile. https://t.co/yBFWnJj37j
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 20, 2023
I think we are still weeks away, at least, before Johnston is a fantasy consideration.
Don’t be surprised if: Rashee Rice turns in his first true big game. We’ve seen good limited looks for Rice but Week 7 could be his true arrival. Most of the Rice big plays have been on slant routes over the middle, an area where CeeDee Lamb ripped up the Chargers last week and Tony Pollard had his long catch and run. Rice should see an increase in playing time with Justin Watson out of the mix.
MIAMI DOLPHINS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles have rarely looked like the team we expected to see this season. They often appear to have one kink on offense per week and aren’t spamming easy button plays from 2022 — RPOs, tight end screens, etc. You have to believe that is merely a byproduct of breaking in a new play-caller after Shane Steichen’s departure.
The Dolphins have had one hiccup against the Bills but have otherwise looked like the most elite offense in the NFL. This game should be an excellent matchup from an NFL and fantasy football perspective. The best part? You know who to play on both sides in fake football.
Non-obvious players I like
Two delightfully concentrated offenses. Play the hits.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: From Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics:
ESPN has been collecting motion data since 2017. The Dolphins’ current 62% motion at the snap mark is by far a high in that span. The second-highest motion at snap rate is the 2022 Dolphins at 46%. The third-highest is the 2023 Rams (41%).
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 18, 2023
Walder also notes, “In 2017, the Rams used motion at the snap 9% of the time, a league-high that year. In 2023 that would be a below-average rate!” It’s just so fun to see what Miami is cooking up right now.
Don’t be surprised if: DeVonta Smith, if healthy, has his first big game since Week 2. I know, I’m sure I said the same thing last week. The opportunity was there against a banged-up secondary in New York (11 targets) but he had a few uncharacteristic ball-skill issues at the catch point. Miami’s defense has been picked apart underneath and that is where Philly likes to use Smith.
Unhappy with a WR you took in Rounds 2-3 of your fantasy football draft this year?
If it makes you feel better, no one else is happy either. Hope that helps! pic.twitter.com/VFhDTO4n4T— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 20, 2023
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Let’s get this out of the way: I’m not going to attempt to offer a referendum on Brock Purdy after last week’s loss. Despite playing with an injury-riddled supporting cast on the road against the best defense in the NFL, Purdy did get the team in position to kick the game-winning field goal. He was far from perfect last week but we know who he is. One game doesn’t change it.
This is a great spot for a bounce-back performance. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL (57.9%) and we have proof of concept with Purdy against the blitz:
The Giants blitzed Brock Purdy on 84.6% of his dropbacks, according to @NextGenStats -- the highest blitz rate they've ever recorded.
Purdy was 20 of 31 for 247 yards and 2 TDs against the blitz. pic.twitter.com/4scoSkDmI3— Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano) September 22, 2023
With the outlet targets designed into this offense and Purdy’s decisiveness, it makes sense why this is a strength of his game. Purdy and Aiyuk should be ranked among the top 10 at their respective positions this week.
The Vikings offense looked bad without Justin Jefferson against a poor Bears defense. Jefferson is a transformative talent who leaves behind a solid set of complementary weapons but no game-wreckers and a quarterback behind a leaky offensive line. That makes me pretty concerned about going against the 49ers' defense this week. However, with this game being in the comfortable Minnesota dome, Cousins should be able to offer up enough pushback to make this a solid fantasy game.
Non-obvious players I like
Another pair of concentrated offenses. Play the hits. I will say, Jauan Jennings makes for a mildly interesting bye-week fill-in given the matchup and with Deebo Samuel out.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Jordan Addison in Week 6: tied for the team lead with 29 routes, 16% target share and had a 14.2 aDOT. That’s the profile of a boom/bust WR3 in fantasy. That’s about what I expect out of Addison going forward. He’s not ready to be a high-volume receiver but is capable of making a big play or two per game as he develops.
Don’t be surprised if: We see a good bit of Jordan Mason and/or Elijah Mitchell even if CMC plays. I understand why Kyle Shanahan so often gives into temptation and uses McCaffrey to his fullest extent in games because of the dynamism he brings. However, they need to take the long view. Mason and Mitchell are both quality NFL backs and against a weaker defense in a winnable game, they should sprinkle in to lessen the hits on CMC.
STREAM
CLEVELAND BROWNS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Cleveland’s defense is such a dominant unit. They lead the NFL in EPA per play on defense and have suffocated even excellent opponents. Gardner Minshew comes into this matchup after a disastrous outing against his old team. He should be serviceable for guys like Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs throughout the season but this is a troubling spot.
The Browns are coming off solid outings by Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt. There's a chance Hunt won't play due to a thigh injury, but Cleveland should get its run game going no matter what with Deshaun Watson expected to be back in the fold. This offense has some meat on the bone, it just remains to be seen if Watson, especially while dealing with an injury, can be the man to drive the bus.
Non-obvious players I like
None. I see this one turning into a low-scoring game with the Browns defense running the show. You may end up having to play guys like Pittman and Downs, whom I usually think are weekly bets, but it’s not a great spot.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Jonathan Taylor took over the backfield lead in expected fantasy points (16.1) over Zack Moss, who was close behind at 15.6, per Fantasy Points Data. These guys are both on the RB2 radar this week, even in a difficult matchup.
Don’t be surprised if: Elijah Moore turns in a usable game. I am hoping we don’t get to Week 16 and I’m still only talking about Moore’s role but alas, that’s where I am now. Moore has run the most routes on the team and has a near 20% target share, which is passable. We just need to get him on more downfield patterns like we saw in his rookie year with the Jets. The Colts have given up the most catches to outside receivers so far. The big plays are available. If P.J. Walker had hit him on those two big crossing routes on the final drive last week, we would be having a very different conversation right now.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at LOS ANGELES RAMS
There might not be a bigger gap between a quarterback’s performance and his statistical output across the league than Matthew Stafford right now. Stafford has a six-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranks a mere 15th in adjusted yards per attempt. Yet, you watch him play and he’s delivering passes into impossible windows and executing the offense at a high level. At some point, you’d think that trickles down into his production. At the very least he has his top two receivers cooking. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have combined for a whopping 39 targets over the last two weeks alone.
The Steelers come off their bye week and will welcome back Diontae Johnson. That is a critical addition. Johnson is one of the top route runners in the NFL and creates easy separation. This Pittsburgh offense has desperately needed someone to get open all season. He could return right away to eight to 10 targets.
Non-obvious players I like
None. Play the hits here.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: George Pickens ranks second in team air yards share and 14th in team target share among all pass-catchers since Week 2. It’s really tough to imagine those volume metrics hold up with Johnson back in the mix. Pickens isn’t a terrible separator, but he’s somewhere around the league average and has been volatile on contested catches, while Johnson creates layup windows. This has the potential to be one of the top duos in the league and it’ll be fascinating to see how they work together.
Don’t be surprised if: We have zero clarity on the Rams' running backs leading up to kickoff. I doubt even Sean McVay knows who will lead the team in carries. All of these guys can be speculative adds but anyone who says they have a clear idea of the rotation is lying to you.
ARIZONA CARDINALS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
I was much more comfortable with Geno Smith’s lackluster box score results after actually watching the film of last week’s loss. Overall, I think the Seahawks' passing game is close to getting right. They’ve been running the ball well with Kenneth Walker III but the aerial attack is just a tick off. The Cardinals rank 31st in dropback success rate allowed, so they provide an excellent spot to get right for Seattle. Geno Smith ranks 25th in touchdown rate this season, so he’s due for some positive touchdown regression as it is.
The Cardinals remain a plucky team but while they’re better than expected, we’ve had some reminders of the holes on this roster the last few games. Credit to Josh Dobbs for showing he’s an excellent NFL backup but his passer rating has fallen below 60 in each of the last two weeks as mistakes have crept in. With Kyler Murray's practice window open to be activated off IR, we’re now in a phase of discovery for how to project the guys around the franchise quarterback when he’s ready to go. So keep an eye on fringe sleepers like rookie receiver Michael Wilson and second-year tight end Trey McBride, who took a step ahead of Zach Ertz in routes run for the first time last week.
Non-obvious players I like
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals. He will be hit-and-miss but I want to use this section to reiterate that Brown should be a weekly WR3. Only Stefon Diggs has more air yards in the last two weeks.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Jaxson Smith-Njigba ran a route on 75% of the dropbacks and had a 7.4 aDOT in Week 6. ln prior weeks he averaged 63% route participation and had a 2.8 aDOT. Not surprisingly, Week 6 featured the most 11 personnel usage of the season for Seattle. As their offensive line gets healthier, I think we’ll see the menu of this offense expand.
Don’t be surprised if: Tyler Lockett is a top-12 receiver on the week. Lockett is tied with Courtland Sutton for the NFL lead in end-zone targets but has converted just one into a score. He’s been consistently getting open this season; the passing game has just been a tick off. As mentioned, this is a great spot to get rolling against one of the weaker cornerback corps around the league. Obviously, this also applies to DK Metcalf if he's able to play.
GREEN BAY PACKERS at DENVER BRONCOS
The Packers return from their bye week to a soft landing spot against Denver. Jordan Love has been shaky so far and the young guys on the roster around him have, well, played like young guys learning the ropes. Lone veteran Aaron Jones will be back this week and second-year wideout Christian Watson will be the healthiest he’s been this season. I’m not sure Watson will ever be a high-volume No. 1 wideout but he has field-tilting ability and collected 180 air yards in Week 5. This is a good week to chase the ceiling.
The Broncos are a mess. Russell Wilson has been passable this season but is coming off his worst effort. The receiver room is overrated and doesn’t have a featured player. The running back rotation is a three-way split.
Non-obvious players I like
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos. Sutton leads the NFL in end-zone targets and has led the team in routes run since Jerry Jeudy’s return. There isn’t much to mine in Denver’s offense but he is the lone playable exception.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Packers are 15th in rushing success rate this year. They have been able to survive without Aaron Jones, somewhat, but his return should kick this offense into another gear. Given the way this team wants to run and the lack of juice around him, Jones is one of the most important backs in the league to his team. He should be close to full strength after a long layoff and gets a cakewalk matchup in his return.
Don’t be surprised if: A.J. Dillon provides bye-week fantasy relief. I know, I know.
Still, Jones being back in the mix increases the potency of the entire offense. That will lead to more scoring-area chances where Dillon can still capitalize. This is mostly driven by a matchup against the utterly unserious Denver Broncos defense that's allowing a league-high 5.6 yards per carry.
SKIP
ATLANTA FALCONS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
This one almost made “stream” but after season-worst performances by the two quarterbacks last week, it gets dropped down. There are so many players I like in both passing games and obviously, Bijan Robinson is awesome for the Falcons. The quarterback play just puts a hard ceiling on these matchups.
The hilarious part is one of these teams is likely winning the NFC South. What a strange division.
Non-obvious players I like
None. Play the hits here.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:
Drake London's 42 targets rank 13th among WRs since Week 2.
Throw out his one target game in Week 1 and the volume has been there.— Mark Dankenbring (@MarkDank) October 17, 2023
Enough said. Drake London is a solid-floor WR2 in fantasy and the breakout season is on track.
Don’t be surprised if: Chris Godwin out-targets Mike Evans. Falcons top corner A.J. Terrell has done some shadowing in man-coverage situations on top receivers this year. That could lead to better matchups for Godwin. The Falcons are a much better run than pass defense.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at CHICAGO BEARS
I don’t want to be totally disrespectful to The Backup Quarterback Bowl of the week — perhaps one of these guys surprises us — but sorry, Tyson Bagent vs. Brian Hoyer must qualify for the skip category. The part that makes this a fascinating game for fantasy purposes is that the Bears and Raiders rank inside the bottom eight in EPA per play allowed on defense. So, the path is there for one of these offenses to find success if we get competent play from behind center. Luckily, these are two concentrated offenses where we know where the ball is going and don’t have to mess around with fringe players.
Non-obvious players I like
Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders. The rookie tight end ran a route on 52% of the team dropbacks the last two weeks, fourth most on the team behind the big three of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Josh Jacobs. He’s a top-14 play on the board to me in a week full of byes and could remain such across the course of the season if he continues to emerge.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Tyson Bagent threw to DJ Moore six times on his 14 passes (42.9%). Those plays went as follows: A catch for -2, incompletion, catch for 18 yards, catch for 24 yards, catch for 4 yards and then an interception. Bagent knew the assignment; pepper the No. 1 wide receiver if you have any hope of succeeding. Maxx Crosby could wreck Bagent’s life in Week 7, but if you’re looking for a reason to play Moore, the fact his backup passer didn’t waste time in finding him is a good sign.
Don’t be surprised if: Rookie running back Roschon Johnson is featured in future games, although he was not activated off the concussion protocol for Week 7. A future prediction, you say? If any game deserves it, this is it. Johnson has flashed this season, albeit mostly in garbage time, while D’Onta Foreman gave the Bears solid play last week. However, the Bears should already be in discovery mode for 2024 and beyond at this stage. They need to figure out if Johnson can be a guy for them, so it's something to watch for in the weeks ahead. For now, Foreman is a solid RB2 play against a bottom-third run defense in the Raiders, even if he's destined to be in a committee with Johnson upon the rookie's return.
BUFFALO BILLS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Bills are the second biggest favorites on the board in Week 7 (-7.5) despite being on the road. That just goes to show where these two teams are at this point. New England has been outscored 93-20 in the last three weeks. The defense is no better than average and can’t impact games because the offense cannot stay on the field nor get them in positive game scripts.
For all of the volatility Buffalo has shown of late, as long as Josh Allen (shoulder) is healthy this is a huge mismatch.
Non-obvious players I like
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills. Damien Harris was released from the hospital after a scary injury last Sunday night, which is great news for the rock-solid runner but the Bills opted to place him on IR. Any time you cut a backfield down from three members to two, it becomes easier to project. That gives Cook, who has carried some murky usage this season, a boost.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 6: 64% snaps rate, 53% of the team carries, 18% target share. This was good to see from Stevenson. He could be in line for another heavy target total in a negative game script.
Don’t be surprised if: Kendrick Bourne helps you out through the bye weeks. Naturally, he is going to be hit and miss but he popped up for an 11-target game last week. Bourne is the only player on this team who has juice and can get open. The Bills have had their issues with outside receiver play.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at NEW YORK GIANTS
Welcome to the NFC East Sack Off.
Sam Howell is on pace for an absurd 96 sacks on the season. Daniel Jones has missed time — and is expected to sit again — but his 17-game pace is right behind at 95. That is just an unserious amount for both teams. It’s far from the only factor, but if you’re wondering why skill-position players in these offenses have let you down, look no further. A sack is basically a drive-killer. These two teams and their starting quarterbacks specialize in stopping themselves.
Non-obvious players I like
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants. If you want to just claw your way to some fake PPR points, Robinson is probably your best bet. His 3.3 aDOT has allowed him to catch 13 of his 14 targets the last two weeks. I’d at least explore a Jalin Hyatt over prop bet this week, however, as Washington has been ripped in the vertical pass game and Hyatt is second behind only Darius Slayton among wide receivers in routes run the last two weeks.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Tyrod Taylor has avoided six sacks this season, per Fantasy Points Data. He has a 12.5% pressure-to-sack rate. Daniel Jones is at 31.5%. Part of the reason, in my opinion, that Taylor looked a bit more functional behind this miserable offensive line is his ability to evade pressure a bit better than Jones.
Don’t be surprised if: Terry McLaurin is a top-10 wide receiver. The Howell sack-fest has been a disaster for the receivers in this offense but the chaotic environment has at least caused them to simplify things down to McLaurin as the primary read. The X-receiver has a 27.1% share of the first-read targets in the last two weeks.
