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Bills vs Patriots prediction, keys to game as Buffalo tries to clinch playoff berth

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
·10 min read

ORCHARD PARK - In the previous three seasons, the Buffalo Bills have faced the New England Patriots in a late December game with a whole lot riding on the outcome.

In what has become an annual holiday time tradition, that will once again be the case Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium.

Back in 2020, having already secured their first AFC East title in 25 years, the Bills needed to win in New England in the penultimate game to keep alive their push for the No. 2 seed in the AFC bracket. They rolled 38-9.

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In 2021 they went to Gillette Stadium trailing the Patriots by a game in the standings but knowing a victory would allow them to control their own destiny in the division with two weeks remaining. They rolled 33-21.

And last year in the season finale, the division was locked up but the Bills had the dual opportunity to secure the No. 2 seed, plus drive a dagger into the Patriots’ playoff chances with a victory. They rolled 35-23.

Bailey Zappe has taken over as the Patriots' starting quarterback and has won two of his last three starts.
Bailey Zappe has taken over as the Patriots' starting quarterback and has won two of his last three starts.

So, here we go again, and this time the stakes are even higher because of the Bills’ still unsettled playoff situation. If they were to somehow lose to the Patriots (don’t laugh, they’ve already done so once this year), lose to the Dolphins next week, and a few other AFC results go against them, the Bills could miss the postseason. That’s probably unlikely, but it’s still hanging out there.

On a more positive note, Buffalo could secure a playoff berth with a win and a little help, and if Miami were to lose to Baltimore, the Bills would have a chance to win their fourth straight AFC East title next week in Miami.

It’s a far cry from the first two decades of the 21st century in this Bills-Patriots rivalry when their late-season matchups usually meant nothing to Buffalo because the Bills were irrelevant in the playoff picture.

“The fact that we lost Game 1 tells you guys we’ve got to put our best stuff out on the field or we’re not going to win this game,” a wary Josh Allen said. “And, frankly, it’s a game that we need to win. If I’m in the New England Patriots locker room, I’m looking to ruin (our) season. An opponent’s playoff hopes are on the line, division rival, so they’re going to be ready to go, I can guarantee you that.”

Here’s my preview of the Bills vs Patriots game, followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Stefon Diggs has been muted in recent weeks and he needs to pull out of his funk.
Stefon Diggs has been muted in recent weeks and he needs to pull out of his funk.

In my Bills Blast newsletter Friday, I made the case that Allen should be in the MVP conversation, and if he finishes strong and the Bills win the AFC East, he should win it. Right now, he leads the NFL with 40 total TDs (which is 83% of the Bills total TDs) and his 4,191 combined yards passing and rushing are second only to Jalen Hurts of the Eagles (4,212).

However, what will probably push votes away are his 15 interceptions (second most) and the fact Buffalo suffered three inexcusable losses including Oct. 22 to these Patriots. At that time New England was 1-5, but Allen - with help from a terrible performance by the Buffalo defense - was unable to lead the Bills to victory and that ranks as one of the worst defeats any team in the NFL has suffered this year. Now he gets another chance against Bill Belichick, and despite the Patriots’ 4-11 record, Allen is in for another big challenge.

The Patriots lead the NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt at 3.2 and if that holds over the final two games, it would be the lowest mark in the NFL since the Lions yielded 3.17 in 2014. The Patriots have held six opponents this season to a 3.0 average per carry or worse, though in the first meeting, James Cook had some success as he gained 56 yards and averaged 4.3 per carry.

Cook needs to continue his late-season surge - minus last week’s fumbles - and keep the Bills’ two-dimensional because the Patriots, while not great defending the pass, have started to generate heat in recent weeks. They have 16 sacks in the last five games, so the Bills’ offensive line - which has allowed a league-low 20 this season - will need to be stout, especially when Belichick sends blitzes which he did on half the pass snaps in the first game and held Allen to a 55% completion rate on 20 throws. The good news is the O-line has played well all year and is coming off a superb game against the Chargers when it allowed only three QB pressures per Pro Football Focus charting.

Allen has thrown a TD pass in 23 straight games which is the longest active streak in the league, but Stefon Diggs has only one in the last six games, during which his production has nose-dived. No one seems too worried about this at One Bills Drive, but there is too much inconsistency among the other pass game targets and this offense needs a better version of Diggs the rest of the way. He had only six catches for 58 yards in the first game against the Patriots which is where things started turning downward for him. He had five 100-yard games in the first six games and none since, starting with that Patriots game.

Buffalo Bills on defense

The Patriots scored a season-high 29 points in their victory over the Bills in October and their 364 yards were their second-highest total. Yet right now you can make a case their offense is actually more functional with Bailey Zappe at QB than it was back then when Mac Jones stunned the Bills and played one of the best games of his career.

Zappe has led the Patriots to two victories in the last three games during which time he has played against three pretty good defenses in the Steelers, Chiefs and Broncos. In those games he has completed 72.8% of his passes for an average of 225.3 yards per game with six TDs and one pick. In the victory over Denver he completed five passes of at least 20 yards; Jones has done that in only two games since the start of 2022, none this season.

New England’s offensive line has struggled much of the year with injuries and is currently down three starter-level players. They’ve patched it together, but the Bills - who rank third in the NFL in sack percentage at 9.11% - should be able to affect Zappe, especially if Ed Oliver and Leonard Floyd (combined 19 sacks) keep playing the way they have most of the year. The Bills might also get A.J. Epenesa back, and Poona Ford made his presence felt in Los Angeles in his first game action in two months.

The Bills’ CBs - Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson - have been outstanding and coupled with the pass rush and some timely blitzes, they will make things difficult for WRs DeVante Parker, Demario Douglas and Jalen Reagor to make impactful plays. Where the Bills need to be sharp is underneath as Zappe will not hesitate to utilize RB Ezekiel Elliott on check downs and, if he plays, TE Hunter Henry. Rallying to the ball and tackling well will be big keys against this offense because it will struggle to gain yards in chunks if the Bills are wrapping up and limiting yards after contact.

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Sal’s prediction: Bills 23, Patriots 10

Yes, if my prediction winds up being close, that would indicate the Bills didn’t sweat too much. But I don’t believe that will be the case because if the Bills do eventually win by 10 or 13 points, I think it’s going to be hard-earned and will cause some angst during the day among the fan base both in the stadium and watching at home.

The Patriots were 2-10 and looking like a threat to come away with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, but they have been much more competitive lately, especially since Zappe took over at QB. Their defense was always good, and despite some key injuries it remains so. They have allowed just 94 points in the last six games and are only 2-4 because the offense was utterly horrible for one three-game stretch when it scored a total - a total! - of 13 points.

This might be a better Patriots team now than the one that beat Buffalo two months ago, so I’m expecting a tight game where New England is annoying all day before falling in the end.

Bills vs. Patriots: News and notes

James Cook ranks third in the NFL with 1,038 rushing yards, most by a Bills back since LeSean McCoy in 2017.
James Cook ranks third in the NFL with 1,038 rushing yards, most by a Bills back since LeSean McCoy in 2017.

▶ Since 2020 at Highmark Stadium, the Bills are 30-8 including the postseason and have a plus-403 point differential. Both figures are the best in the NFL. Also since 2020, the Bills are 17-2 in all regular-season December and January games.

▶ Against Buffalo’s AFC East rivals since 2021, Allen has thrown 42 TD passes which are the most in the NFL for any QB against division rivals, and his 4,781 yards passing trail only the 5,029 yards Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes has thrown for against AFC West teams.

▶ Allen’s 13 rushing TDs also are tied for second in Bills history by any player, just three behind RB O.J. Simpson’s record of 16, set 48 years ago in 1975. The other players with 13 are also all RBs: LeSean McCoy (1016), Willis McGahee (2014), Travis Henry (2002) and Cookie Gilchrist (1962).

▶ Cook ranks third in the NFL in rushing with 1,038 yards and he’s fourth in yards from scrimmage with 1,471. Only Cook and Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers have at least 1,000 yards rushing and 400 yards receiving.

▶ The Bills lead the NFL in red zone efficiency as they have scored touchdowns on 67.3% of their penetrations inside the 20. That’s the highest team rate since at least 1990.

▶ Kicker Tyler Bass has scored at least one point in all 64 games of his NFL career. That ties him for the second-longest streak in team history with Dan Carpenter (2013-17), trailing only Scott Norwood who scored in 92 straight games (1986-91).

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Patriots prediction, keys to game that may clinch playoffs