Is the Bills Super Bowl window closing? 3 reasons they aren't favorites entering camp
It’s funny how quickly things can change in the NFL. One year, say 2022 for instance, the Buffalo Bills are the consensus favorite to be the last team standing when the confetti starts flying at the conclusion of Super Bowl 57.
Then along comes 2023, and when the Bills take the field at St. John Fisher University Wednesday morning for the start of training camp, the prevailing vibe around the league is that their Super Bowl window may already be closing.
Never mind that quarterback Josh Allen is a superstar just entering his prime years, or that the Bills won 14 of 18 games last year and will bring back 18 starters this season from that team, and are three-time defending AFC East champions.
The reality is that the Bills can’t be trusted as Super Bowl favorites, and the reasons are hard to argue.
3 reasons the Buffalo Bills aren't Super Bowl favorites heading into 2023 season
1. Like Marv Levy’s Bills of the early 1990s, Sean McDermott’s team is becoming known as one that can’t clear the final hurdle and close the deal.
That talk is largely fueled by how each of the past four seasons have ended. The flameout last January when the Bills got whipped at home by the Bengals, a shockingly non-competitive performance; the 13 seconds debacle the year before which led to a hard to fathom loss to the Chiefs; the one-sided AFC Championship Game defeat at Kansas City in the 2020 playoffs; and the second-half collapse at Houston in the 2019 playoffs.
2. There’s the fierce competition in the superior AFC. During this franchise resurgence which has seen Buffalo make the postseason four consecutive years and five out of six, the Chiefs have always reigned supreme. Kansas City has twice ended Buffalo’s season, it has played in five straight AFC Championship Games, has won three, and also gone on to win two Super Bowls. To compare the resumes of the teams is folly.
Now, given how the Bengals dismantled the Bills, and how they beat the Chiefs the year before on the road in the AFC Championship Game to get to Super Bowl 56, you’d have to concede that they are riding shotgun next to Kansas City. The Bills are, at best, considered bronze medalists in the AFC, and teams like the Jaguars, Chargers, and Ravens can also lay stake to that claim.
3. Finally, there’s the beast that is the AFC East which may prove to be the best division in the NFL this season. Both the Jets and Dolphins - teams that gave the Bills fits in all five games they played last season - have made big improvements to their rosters, and Bill Belichick’s Patriots may be the best projected last-place team we’ve seen in quite a while. You could easily see all four teams finishing above .500, and the Bills’ stranglehold on the division could be broken.
“I don’t know what people are saying about us,” Allen said. “We’re very internally motivated here in our organization, and it starts with coach McDermott. We’ve got high expectations; no one’s expectations will be higher than ours.”
Buffalo Bills training camp returns: What to know about the schedule, tickets and more
Bills met unprecedented challenges in 2022 season
What can’t be overlooked, though, is that even in a season that ended so terribly, 2022 was quite a year for the Bills as they overcame unprecedented obstacles which have been well documented.
Before the season even started there was the mass shooting at a Buffalo-area Tops, co-owner Kim Pegula falling ill, the Matt Araiza situation, and Dawson Knox dealing with the death of his younger brother, all of which created a bit of a fog at One Bills Drive.
Then came severe weather problems that created havoc with their schedule and cost them a true home game; Allen’s elbow injury which seemed to slightly curtail his effectiveness; a deluge of injuries on the defensive side of the ball; and of course, the near tragedy of Damar Hamlin that forced the cancellation of the Cincinnati road game which may have prevented the Bills from securing the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC playoff bracket.
Despite all that, they went 13-3 in the regular season and lost those three games by a combined total of eight points. Their offense, even with some of the struggles near the end, remained prolific as it ranked No. 2 in scoring, and the defense, despite long stretches without Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde and Von Miller, allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL.
“I don’t want to just discredit everything that we did,” Allen said. “There was a lot of positives that we saw throughout the year, a lot of adversity this team had been dealt. I’m still proud of our team for how we handled some of those really adverse situations. They weren’t all easy. That’s the NFL man, there’s going to be 31 unhappy teams. This is going to be the feeling every year unless you win the Super Bowl. There’s a lot to learn from, a lot to grow from.”
The 2022 Bills were a terrific team that simply seemed to run out of gas at the worst possible time and went splat against Cincinnati. That’s history, and like everything in life, time does not stand still and the Bills have turned the page to 2023.
“We’ve had success, obviously not the success that we all want, which is to win the Super Bowl,” McDermott said. “But the journey continues, and we won’t stop until we get there and that’s the vision moving forward. I’m extremely proud of how far this organization has come, but not satisfied.”
Buffalo Bills training camp kicks off
Wednesday, Buffalo’s interminable quest for a championship kicks into gear when the Bills hit the practice fields in Pittsford, and perhaps not being the team under the glaring spotlight will be a benefit for the 2023 team.
“You can’t control what the narrative is out there,” general manager Brandon Beane said. “You can’t listen to it. Whether it’s somebody bashing you, or whether it’s somebody telling you how great you are. Usually the truth is somewhere in the middle … it’s really about inside these walls, who we are, what our message is, what we’re doing and how we work. Whether people are saying we’re supposed to be in the Super Bowl like last year, time will tell, but they probably won’t.”
Buffalo Bills news
Be sure to return to democratandchronicle.com for daily updates throughout the Buffalo Bills training camp. You can also sign up for Bills Blast, Sal Maiorana's newsletter which will follow the Bills action all season long. Here are stories previewing some of the questions that need to be answered during camp:
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills training camp preview: 3 reasons they are flying under the radar
