Bills near the top in playoff power rankings: Here's the odds of winning the Super Bowl
Do these Buffalo Bills have it in them to run the gauntlet a second time?
The Bills are the darling of NFL journalists these days after surviving a 5-game gauntlet to seize their division and secure the No. 2 seed.
As Chris Bermen is fond of saying: "No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills."
But before you book a Las Vegas hotel and start looking for your favorite Zubaz pants, you should know: Statistically, the Bills are back to where they were before the Kansas City game. (15% shot of making playoffs).
The Bills' odds of winning the Super Bowl: 13.3% according to Fox Sports. The Bills odds of making the playoffs coming off the bye week: 15%.
Of course there's always somebody who has it worse in the NFL, and this week's example is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have a 0.8% shot of winning it all.
Let's take a look at how the Steelers and Bills stack up in the playoff power rankings:
USA Today
Bills ranking: 3 (no change)
Steelers ranking: 14 (⬆ five spots)
Bills: The Bills are getting hot at just the right time. Although quarterback Josh Allen was second in the the NFL with 22 turnovers, he was still a dynamic playmaker who led his team to victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 to secure the AFC's second seed.
Steelers: It's no wonder the Steelers rank this low. The team in on their third-string quarterback. Their defense just lost their world-class pass rusher, T.J. Watt. They barely snuck into the playoffs by the hair on their chinny-chin-chins. A 10-7 record and a date with the Buffalo Bills does not stoke much confidence in sports bettors.
NFL.com
Bills ranking: 4 (⬆ two spots)
Steelers ranking: 14 (⬆ one spot)
Bills: Which Josh Allen will we get against the Steelers? Will we get first-half-against-Miami Allen? That was the guy who threw two end-zone interceptions and was lucky Trent Sherfield caught his batted pass for a touchdown. Or will we get second-half Allen, who — though he did lose a big fumble at the Miami 28 late in the third quarter and was stopped on a late sneak attempt -- willed the Bills to victory? Allen completed 14 of 15 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown in the second half, also converting five third and fourth downs with his legs, including an absurd 15-yard scramble on third-and-13. I joked with a friend midgame that Josh probably uses a blowtorch to kill mosquitoes. Sometimes you roast 'em. Sometimes you burn down your backyard. Allen tried to set the grass ablaze in the first half, but in the end, the blowtorch won. The early weather reports for Sunday's game suggest it could be ... wintry. Bring on the thundersnow. I'll be watching this puppy with Led Zeppelin's No Quarter as my pregame hype music.
Steelers: The Steelers refuse to make anything easy for themselves — but they sure as heck haven't left the party yet, either. Riding a fairly hot Mason Rudolph and an emerging run game into an inside-straight playoff spot, the Steelers certainly can't be dismissed. They overcame dozens of hurdles, including some self-erected ones, to emerge as survivors. The extra callouses built up over a trying season should theoretically help them in a tough road game against a Bills team that is suddenly cooking, and the expected returns of Minkah Fitzpatrick (from injury) and Damontae Kazee (from suspension) should help a stretched secondary deal with Josh Allen and Buffalo's passing game. Yet, the likely absence of the injured T.J. Watt will not help, not with the Steelers needing all the defensive firepower they can muster. The chances of an upset don't feel exceptionally high, but then again, neither did most of the things that happened during the Steelers' season.
CBS Sports
Bills ranking: 3 (⬆ one spot)
Steelers ranking: 13 (no change)
Bills: They struggled to close key contests earlier this year, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a more dangerous offensive trio than Josh Allen, James Cook and Stefon Diggs. They have January hurdles to clear, but throw in an improved Sean McDermott-led defense featuring ballhawk Rasul Douglas, and they might be the contender that nobody else wants to play.
Steelers: Mike Tomlin has once again pulled a rabbit out of his hat, navigating staffing turmoil and quarterback injuries to keep Pittsburgh above water. But as sharp as Mason Rudolph's been off the bench, this is the only playoff team with a negative point differential, and now the defense's best difference-maker, T.J. Watt, is banged up. They'll still be scrappy as always.
Pro Football Talk
Bills ranking: 3 (no change)
Steelers ranking: 12 (⬆ two spots)
Bills: Let Josh sizzle.
Steelers: Can they win without T.J. Watt?
Touchdown Wire
Bills ranking: 3 (no change)
Steelers ranking: 13 (⬆ two spots)
Bills: I have complete faith that the Bills can win the Super Bowl. On their best day, they can beat anybody. It’s the days where they aren’t their best that worry me. When Josh Allen starts going sicko mode and launching prayers while blaring “Highway To Hell” in his head. That said, this is an AFC that is as wide open as it’s been in quite some time, I like Buffalo’s odds.
Steelers: In "Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me"(I only reference cinematic classics, folks), Mike Myers’ titular character is avoiding an assassination attempt from a female spy, who takes a ton of cartoonish pain and punishment in the process. After Powers tackles her out a window and lands on her, the spy assassin is still alive, causing Powers to yell out “Why won’t you die?!” That’s the Pittsburgh Steelers. There is precisely zero reason they should have made it into the postseason after sitting at 7-7 ahead of Christmas Eve, the Steelers rattled off three straight wins and caught every break imaginable along the way, all while playing three different quarterbacks. Somehow, they keep finding ways to remain alive, even when all signs say they are dead in the water.
33rd Team
Bills ranking: 3 (no change)
Steelers ranking: 14 (⬇ one spot)
Bills: We’ve been higher than consensus on the Buffalo Bills for more than a month, so it was no surprise to us that they won five games to close out the regular season. Josh Allen’s Bills spent the last month playing must-win games, which could give them an advantage in the postseason. Overall, Buffalo won five games by at least three scores, beating the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins down the stretch. The Bills haven't always been consistent, but they are the biggest threat to the Ravens in the AFC.
Steelers: Mike Tomlin’s streak of consecutive seasons without a losing record has reached an astounding 17. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a tough out for a long time, even in down years, since Tomlin took over. QB Mason Rudolph added a spark to the offense when he took over in Week 16, but the Steelers scored 17 points against the Ravens’ reserves last week. It also looks like Pittsburgh will be without defensive linchpin T.J. Watt. Last season, the Steelers were a radically different team while Watt was sidelined due to injury. It would be a genuine surprise if the Steelers beat the Bills.
Pro Football Network
Bills ranking: 3 (no change)
Steelers ranking: 12 (no change)
Bills: The Bills finished the season on a five-game win streak and claimed its fourth consecutive AFC East title with a victory over the Dolphins. Josh Allen tried to give away the game with multiple first-half endzone interceptions, but he pulled out his usual Superman antics to pull out the win. Buffalo’s defense deserves credit, too, after holding Miami to 57 yards and zero points in the second half. They’ve allowed 22 or fewer points in each of their last five games and might be meshing just in time for the postseason.
Steelers: The Steelers did what they could to make a run at the playoffs this season, defying the odds as a clearly outmanned roster, at least on paper. Things got so bad on offense that Mike Tomlin was forced to fire a coworker midseason, something that the Steelers’ organization rarely ever does during offseasons. But Mike Tomlin is impervious to underachievement. It’s fair to wonder whether he’s human at this point because he hasn’t truly had a good team at any point in the past half-decade.
The Sporting News
Bills ranking: 5 (⬆ three spots)
Steelers ranking: 14 (⬇ three spots)
Bills: The Bills beat the Chiefs in Kansas City in the regular season, and their ascent from nearly falling out of the playoffs to right behind the Ravens is remarkable. However, they're still living on the edge with Josh Allen's interceptions and inconsistent defense. No one would be surprised if somehow they lost to the gritty Steelers or if they stampeded through the AFC with a Super Bowl exclamation point. If they get past the Chiefs again, this time at home, watch out.
Steelers: The Steelers scrapping to get to this point while on their third starting quarterback with an offense in transition and defense battling through key injuries has been one of Mike Tomlin's best coaching jobs. That said, they are a rather flawed team with well-rounded weaknesses, and Mason Rudolph is easily the shakiest QB in the field.
Yahoo! Sports
Bills ranking: 3 (No change)
Steelers ranking: 12 (⬆ three spots)
Bills: The Bills made a statement Sunday night, and not just by winning the AFC East. Not many other teams would be able to overcome three turnovers in Miami territory and a clock management fiasco at the end of the half to beat a team like the Dolphins on the road. Buffalo at Baltimore would be a fantastic AFC championship game.
Steelers: The Steelers are the only playoff team with a negative point differential. They finished at -5. That won't overshadow how Pittsburgh steered out of a terrible skid to win three in a row and make the postseason. There's work to be done for Pittsburgh to graduate from a playoff bubble team to a true Super Bowl contender, but for now let's appreciate what the Steelers accomplished.
FOX Sports
Bills ranking: 3
Steelers ranking: 13
Bills: After some serious adversity, the Bills end the season atop the division and riding a five-game win streak. Their only loss after Thanksgiving came on the road in Philadelphia, in overtime. I can’t say enough about the way this defense has rallied, and if Josh Allen can limit the turnovers, these guys can beat anyone.
Steelers: It’s one thing to avoid a losing season, but in 2023, Mike Tomlin posted double-digit wins. And that came despite an offense that was so bad it necessitated firing the offensive coordinator mid-season, not to mention uncertainty at quarterback. I doubt the Steelers have a deep playoff run in their bag, but then again, I’d never have believed they’d make it this far in the first place.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills near top in playoff power rankings: Odds of a Super Bowl win
