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Big Ten bowl projections: College Football Playoff, New Year's Six predictions after Week 7

kevin skiver, usa today network
·4 min read
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Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh watches a play against Indiana during the first half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023.

Two weeks away from the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, the games are starting to mean a bit more and what they mean is beginning to crystallize.

Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State continue to be the creme de la creme of the Big Ten, with the three schools winning in dominant fashion in Week 7. That sets the stage for a massive matchup between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 6 Penn State in Columbus on Saturday, in which Penn State looks to break up what is becoming an annual battle for the Big Ten East between the Wolverines and Buckeyes on Rivalry Week.

The Big Ten saw some other teams get big wins in Week 7, including Iowa, which continues to find increasingly abstract paths to victory with a 15-6 win over Wisconsin that put the route to the Big Ten West through Iowa City. Rutgers also got a key come-from-behind win against Michigan State that has the Scarlet Knights a game away from bowl eligibility.

Maryland will have to wait to celebrate the postseason, with the Terrapins suffering a brutal 27-24 loss to Illinois, while Wisconsin has found itself in an all-too-familiar outside looking in position following Saturday's loss.

Could we once again have two teams from the Big Ten in the College Football Playoff? It's a difficult path there now, but we'll know a whole lot more after Week 8.

REQUIRED READING: College football rankings: Big Ten teams in updated Coaches Poll, AP Top 25 after Week 7

All bowl projections based on Big Ten bowl selection parameters, Week 8 US LBM Coaches Poll rankings and Big Ten conference standings. Big Ten teams bolded.

Week 8 college football bowl predictions

College Football Playoff

  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida State

This remains the same as last week, with Michigan dominating Indiana and Florida State routing Syracuse.

Former Michigan State receiver Keon Coleman had an incredible day for the Seminoles, logging nine catches for 140 yards and a touchdown (plus one epic catch).

While the result of Michigan vs. Ohio State on Nov. 25 doesn't preclude both teams from the playoffs, the depth of the Pac-12 and Florida State's impressive year makes the path significantly murkier. With Michigan being higher in the rankings as of Week 8, that gives the Wolverines the edge for a Rose Bowl berth.

New Year's Six

  • Orange Bowl: Ohio State vs. North Carolina

  • Cotton Bowl: Penn State vs. Oklahoma

The New Year's Six bowls, as a reminder, are the Rose and Sugar Bowls (2024 CFP semifinals), followed by the Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl and Peach Bowl. Michigan is on pace to be the sole Big Ten representative in the College Football Playoff, leaving Ohio State and Penn State for the other New Year's Six berths.

Based off current rankings, Ohio State will earn an Orange Bowl bid as the highest-ranked non-Playoff team among the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes will take on North Carolina, the de facto Orange Bowl participant out of the ACC after projected conference champion FSU makes the Playoff.

Penn State looked last week like its likely opponent was Southern Cal, but after a rout at the hands of the Irish the Trojans saw a precipitous drop in the polls. The Big 12 deserves a New Years Six bowl at least and strong consideration for a shot at the CFP, which means Penn State vs. Oklahoma is a possibility.

Of note: The remaining New Year's Six bowls (Fiesta, Cotton and Peach) have no built-in conference ties, with only one team (the highest-ranked Group of Five team) guaranteed a spot in one of the three bowls. That leaves Penn State with options among the remaining New Year's bowl games. They could earn their way into the Fiesta Bowl — where they have gone an astounding 7-0 all time — against Oklahoma.

Remaining Big Ten bowl projections

With the Big Ten's top three teams slated for the CFP and New Year's Six, the next Big Ten team up for selection will go to the Citrus Bowl, thanks to contractual obligations among the bowl game, Big Ten and SEC. Based on Week 8 Coaches Poll standings, the next team up would be Iowa, against SEC opponent Ole Miss.

The rest of the Big Ten bowl game tie-ins, in order of selection, are the Music City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl. The conference vacates its spot in the ReliaQuest in any bowl season in which one of its teams plays in the Orange Bowl.

Here's how the rest of those bowls project:

  • Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Ole Miss

  • Music City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Missouri

  • Vegas Bowl: Maryland vs. Oregon State

  • Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. NC State

  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Minnesota vs. Baylor

  • Quick Lane Bowl: Nebraska vs. Miami (OH)

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Big Ten bowl projections: College Football Playoff, NY6 predictions Week 7