Advertisement

Big Ten bowl projections: College Football Playoff, New Year's Six predictions after Week 11

craig meyer, usa today network
·5 min read
62

As the 2023 college football regular season nears its end and the College Football Playoff still in flux, the bowl picture in the Big Ten is getting clearer, especially after an eventful Week 11 involving several of the conference’s top teams.

In the marquee matchup Saturday, No. 3 Michigan (No. 2 in the US LBM Coaches Poll) went on the road and defeated No. 10 Penn State 24-15 in front of 110,856 at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania.

Under interim head coach Sherrone Moore, who was filling in for the suspended Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) ran the ball on 32 consecutive plays and finished with 227 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry. Defensively, they held the Nittany Lions (8-2, 5-2) to just 238 total yards and limited quarterback Drew Allar to 70 passing yards on 22 attempts.

Michigan effectively eliminated Penn State from College Football Playoff contention, as coach James Franklin’s team has losses to both the Wolverines and No. 1 Ohio State.

REQUIRED READING: Michigan football stock watch: Blake Corum to be missed, Donovan Edwards finally gets free

The Buckeyes (10-0, 7-0) remained undefeated, thumping Michigan State (3-7, 1-6). In the 38-3 win, quarterback Kyle McCord threw for a career-high 335 yards, with his favorite target, star wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., hauling in seven passes for 149 yards and two touchdowns.

Iowa (8-2, 5-2), which slid into the Coaches Poll at No. 23, clinched at least a share of the Big Ten West after shutting out Rutgers (6-4, 3-4).

Maryland (6-4, 3-4) achieved bowl eligibility with a 13-10 road win against Nebraska (5-5, 3-4). The Terrapins won with a 24-yard field goal as time expired.

Northwestern (5-5, 3-4) and Illinois (5-5, 3-4) each is one win from bowl eligibility after beating Wisconsin (5-5, 3-4) and Indiana (3-7, 1-6), respectively.

Minnesota (5-5, 3-4) is one win shy as well after losing to Purdue (3-7, 2-5).

Nebraska travels to Wisconsin with that much-desired sixth win at stake. Wisconsin has played in a bowl in 21 consecutive seasons.

Here are the latest bowl projections for the Big Ten:

REQUIRED READING: Sherrone Moore cursing interview reminds us of similar moment over 50 years ago

College Football Playoff

Ohio State knocked the Wolverines from this spot last week, but given that Michigan finally has a ranked win on its résumé — one that came on the road, no less — it moves back into the playoff ahead of Tuesday’s new batch of rankings.

It’s a temporary designation that will ultimately matter little, though. Barring a disaster this weekend, whoever wins the Nov. 25 meeting between Ohio State and Michigan will be in the playoff, and the loser has to hope undefeated Washington and Florida State somehow drop a game.

Florida State has been No. 4 in the playoff rankings each of the past two weeks and likely will slide up a spot ahead of the Michigan-Ohio State loser if it remains undefeated and wins the ACC.

New Year’s Six

With Michigan back in the projected playoff, Ohio State goes down to the Orange Bowl. What has been an inconsistent Buckeyes offense turned in one of its best outings of the season on Saturday, with 530 total yards and 8 yards per play against Michigan State.

Ohio State is projected to square off against Louisville. With Florida State in the playoff, the Cardinals would be the ACC’s highest-rated non-playoff team, which would grant them a berth in the Orange Bowl.

After its loss to Michigan, Penn State barely hangs on to a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. The Nittany Lions fell to No. 12 in the most recent Coaches Poll and are likely to experience a similar drop in Tuesday’s playoff rankings release.

With only 12 spots available for New Year’s Six bowls — one of which goes to the highest-rated Group of Five team, currently No. 23 Tulane — Penn State is out of that group, but several of the teams ahead of it have challenging roads that could hand them another loss.

For example, No. 12 Oregon State has regular-season games remaining against No. 5 Washington and No. 6 Oregon, the second of which is on the road.

In the Peach Bowl, the Nittany Lions would face Ole Miss.

REQUIRED READING: Michigan football returns to roots for statement win to silence on-the-field critics

Remaining bowl projections

The Big Ten appears likely to fill its seven bowl tie-ins outside of the New Year’s Six, with six teams already eligible and five teams with five wins.

With Michigan in the playoff and Ohio State and Penn State in New Year’s Six bowls, the Big Ten’s highest-remaining team would earn a spot in the Citrus Bowl. Right now, as it has been the past several weeks, that would be Iowa.

Due to contractual obligations, the remaining Big Ten bowl possibilities are, in order of selection: Music City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl.

The conference gives up its spot in the ReliaQuest Bowl in any season in which one of its members represents it in the Orange Bowl (which Ohio State is projected to do in this outlook).

Here’s how the rest of the Big Ten’s teams are projected:

  • Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Missouri

  • Music City Bowl : Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

  • Las Vegas Bowl: Maryland vs. USC

  • Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Duke

  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Illinois vs. Iowa State

  • Quick Lane Bowl: Northwestern vs. Toledo

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Big Ten bowl predictions, including CFP, New Year's Six after Week 11