Big 12 preview: Can surprising BYU become a factor in best college basketball conference in America?
At the Big 12 basketball media days in mid-October, incoming BYU was merely an afterthought in Kansas City, and for good reason.
Perennial power Kansas got most of the headlines after having been picked to win the league for the umpteenth time, along with Big 12 newcomer Houston, 2021 national champion Baylor and Texas, looking to make a significant splash in its final season in the league widely regarded as the best in America.
“We didn’t have the same opinion about this team as everyone else did at the start of the year. We had a lot of self-belief, self-confidence. But we have definitely grown over the past couple of months as a team, and so we are just continuing to grow, and trusting in what we do.” — BYU guard Dallin Hall
Coming off a lackluster final season in the West Coast Conference and with only a couple of additions from the transfer portal, BYU was picked to finish 13th in the 14-team league and many wondered aloud, including reporters at this news outlet, whether coach Mark Pope’s fifth squad in Provo was capable of winning more than a handful of conference contests.
About the only attention BYU got from the league’s other news outlets was when Pope talked about taking his daughters to a Taylor Swift concert, and how he learned that 13 was the popular entertainer’s favorite number so the team was embracing the 13th-place prediction.
Of course, Swift’s blossoming friendship with Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was just taking off at the time, so the local media ate it up.
Now they’ve got something more legitimate to report on regarding the Cougars, who finished nonconference play with a 12-1 record after demolishing Wyoming 94-68 on Saturday night at the Marriott Center.
BYU, an astounding No. 2 in the NET rankings, No. 3 in Kenpom.com and No. 12 in The Associated Press Top 25 as of Tuesday afternoon, is easily the biggest surprise in the league after two months of games against lesser competition. Kansas (12-1), Houston (13-0), Texas (11-2), Baylor (11-2) and TCU (11-2) have been as good as advertised after being picked to finish in that order in the preseason coaches poll.
Picked 12th, Oklahoma (12-1) has also been a surprise, with a No. 11 ranking in the latest AP poll and a NET ranking of 28.
But with conference play starting Saturday — BYU hosts Cincinnati (11-2) at 8 p.m. at the Marriott Center — doubts continue to surround the Cougars. Are they legitimate, or a product of a cupcake-laden nonconference schedule?
The Cougars lost their only true road game, 73-69 at rival Utah (which is No. 16 in the latest NET rankings), and faced only three other notable teams — San Diego State, Arizona State and North Carolina State.
What’s in store for Pope’s team the rest of the way, where every Big 12 team will seemingly be more talented than the Cougars, at least on paper?
“We’re stepping into 18 straight really challenging games where we will have all kinds of things happen to us, but I think we have a chance,” Pope said after BYU’s ninth win by 26 or more points. “What I’m pleased about in this nonconference is that hopefully we put enough capital in the bank with a belief in who we are and what we can be that we’re going to be able to do that in conference, through good and bad.
“I think we have a lot of faith in our preparation. We are humble. We understand what we are walking into, but we know who we’re trying to be,” Pope continued. “We’re hopefully getting better at being us every single day, and that’s what we’re going to look forward to in this league.”
The Cougars are also confident, which was apparent Oct. 18 in Kansas City when they were getting accustomed to being picked to finish closer to the bottom of their league, as opposed to annual top-three predictions as a member of the WCC, but still talked as if they had big expectations.
“We didn’t have the same opinion about this team as everyone else did at the start of the year. We had a lot of self-belief, self-confidence,” point guard Dallin Hall said last week. “But we have definitely grown over the past couple of months as a team, and so we are just continuing to grow, and trusting in what we do.”
Is this as good as 2023-24 gets for the Cougars? All the numbers, aside from their lowly strength of schedule number (300 in Kenpom), suggest that they are going to be OK the next two months. Are the computers correct? We will see.
“I think we are feeling really prepared,” Hall said. “I think our degree of readiness for the Big 12 has been the same. … We are super hungry. Nobody is content. … There is a lot of work ahead of us, some ups and some downs.
“So we just gotta stay the course and continue to focus on us because we don’t want to get lost in the weeds of what other teams are doing or what is going on around the country,” Hall continued. “We just want to be the best team we can be, especially when March comes around.”
A big reason for the Cougars’ phenomenal nonconference success has been the play of Charlotte transfer Aly Khalifa, even as Fouss Traore — expected to be the Cougars’ best player this season — has missed the last seven games with a hamstring injury.
The Cougars expect the 6-foot-6 Traore to be available against Cincy, marking the first time all season that Pope will have a full complement of players at his disposal.
Khalifa, the so-called “Egyptian Magician,” leads the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (14-to-1) and has been a pleasant surprise after dealing with injuries himself.
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“The Big 12 is going to be brutal,” Khalifa said last week. “Coach mentions (the rankings) a little bit. I personally don’t look at the stuff. It doesn’t really matter to me. I just do my job — go out there and try to play as hard as I can and win. But coach mentioned yesterday during film that we are leading as a team in assist-turnover ratio. We are leading in a lot of stuff, obviously, which means we worked so hard this summer to take care of the ball and it is showing right now.”
Bellarmine coach Scott Davenport suggested the Cougars “could win it all” after taking a 101-59 loss at the Marriott Center on Dec. 22, perhaps dipping into the pre-Christmas egg nog a little too much, but the mere thought of that two months ago would have seemed preposterous.
“Obviously we believe we are the best team we can be ... and we believe that we are really good,” Khalifa said. “But we gotta take it game by game and see what happens in March. We still believe that we are the best team in college basketball and we are still together.”
Kansas, Baylor, Texas and the others will have something to say about that in the next 18 games — BYU’s first Big 12 road game is Jan. 9 at Baylor in what will be a matchup of top-12 teams — but as of now the Cougars have at least showed they belong.
Here’s a team-by-team look at the league heading into conference play, with the Deseret News’ predicted order of finish:
1. Houston (13-0)
Kansas was the preseason pick to win the regular-season race, but we’re going with the red Cougars, the Big 12’s only remaining unbeaten team. Transfers have made the Big 12 newcomers a legitimate national championship contender, as LJ Cryer (17.0 ppg.) and Mylik Wilson have lifted an already-potent lineup.
Houston owns the top NET ranking in the country heading into its conference opener against West Virginia on Saturday.
The Cougars tend to crush inferior opponents, and make just enough plays down the stretch to hold off teams with similar talent, such as Nov. 17 when they topped Utah 76-66 in Charleston, South Carolina. Xavier and Texas A&M also pushed Houston, which boasts one of the league’s top point guards in Jamal Shead, sharpshooter Emanuel Sharp and a solid big man in freshman Joseph Tugler.
Defense is the calling card of coach Kelvin Sampson’s team, which plays at BYU on Jan. 23.
2. Kansas (12-1)
Kansas proved its preseason No. 1 national ranking was accurate with an early 82-75 win at Illinois and then handled Kentucky 89-84 in Chicago. The Jayhawks’ only loss came in Hawaii, a 73-59 setback to Marquette in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational. Impressive wins over the likes of Tennessee, defending national champion UConn, Indiana and Missouri followed as Bill Self’s team played arguably the toughest nonconference schedule of any Big 12 team.
Like Houston, Kansas can be considered a bona fide national championship contender. Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson, the Big 12 preseason Player of the Year, has fit in seamlessly and is averaging 18.5 points and a team-high 12.5 rebounds a game. Kevin McCullar Jr. leads KU in scoring with a 20.4 average, and Dajuan Harris Jr. is one of the top point guards in the country, let alone the league.
BYU gets to experience Phog Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 27 in the only matchup with the college basketball blue blood of the regular season.
3. Iowa State (11-2)
Most folks are picking Texas, Baylor or TCU to finish third in the league, but we’re going to shake things up a bit and pick Iowa State, which was tabbed seventh in the preseason coaches poll. The mildly surprising Cyclones were No. 6 in the NET rankings when the week began and, much like BYU, have pummeled some inferior opponents.
Losses to Virginia Tech (71-62) and then-No. 12 Texas A&M (73-69) in Florida after Thanksgiving were competitive affairs, and blowout wins over Iowa (90-65) and DePaul (99-80) showed the Cyclones are legit.
Depth and balance are reasons to like Iowa State. Six players are averaging 9.4 points or better, led by sophomore guard Tamin Lipsey (15.5) and junior guard Keshon Gilbert (14.4), a transfer from UNLV. Iowa State meets BYU twice in the next two months, on Jan. 16 in Provo and March 6 in Ames, Iowa.
4. Texas (11-2)
Believe it or not, the only Texas team that will play at BYU, in any sport, in the Cougars’ first year in the Big 12 and the Longhorns’ last, will be its men’s basketball team.
Suffice it to say that the squad that invades the Marriott Center on Jan. 27 will be very good; BYU does not play in Austin this year.
Texas is No. 20 in the AP poll, No. 46 in the NET rankings, and has two “good” losses — at No. 8 Marquette (86-65) and vs. No. 5 UConn (81-71) in New York City in mid-November. Its best win was over LSU in Houston, a 96-85 conquest of the 8-5 Tigers.
Oral Roberts transfer guard Max Abmas has picked up where he left off in Tulsa, averaging 17.1 points per game for Texas. He will be a handful for BYU on Jan. 27.
5. TCU (11-2)
The Horned Frogs and Cougars renew their old Mountain West rivalry only once in 2024, on March 2 in Provo. That’s a shame, because BYU and TCU could set some scoring records if the way the teams finished 2023 continues.
The Frogs love to run and gun and push the pace under coach Jamie Dixon; they are averaging 86.5 points per game. BYU loves the 3-point shot in 2023-24, which is how it hopes to narrow a perceived talent gap with other Big 12 teams.
TCU entered the Diamond Head Classic with just one loss — to No. 24 Clemson in Toronto — and as the favorite but was upended by Nevada 88-75 and settled for third. It opens league play at Kansas in a game that will be televised nationally by CBS. Emanuel Miller is the top Frog, averaging 16.5 points and 6.1 rebounds.
6. Baylor (11-2)
The Bears have finished in the top two of the Big 12 in three of the last four years and won the 2021 national title, of course. So picking Scott Drew’s team this low could be considered a mistake. Time will tell.
The No. 18-ranked Bears are No. 19 in the NET rankings and will be breaking in their brand new Foster Pavilion (7,500 capacity) when BYU visits on Jan. 9. So the Cougars can look forward to a lot of pomp and circumstance in their first-ever trip to Waco for a basketball game.
The price tag for the intimate arena was in the $212 million range.
Baylor plays at BYU on Feb. 20, returning to the scene of one of the more memorable Provo games of the Dave Rose era, an 86-83 Baylor win on Dec. 17, 2011, that marked the debut of BYU point guard Matt Carlino.
Baylor features BYU transfer Caleb Lohner, who is averaging just 13.5 minutes a game. But the Bears’ best player to date is freshman Ja’Kobe Walter, a freshman guard from McKinney, Texas.
7. Kansas State (10-3)
Picked to finish sixth in the league, the Wildcats have mostly lived up to their preseason billing. They downed Villanova 72-71 in Manhattan, Kansas, on Dec. 5, and also have solid wins over Providence, Wichita State and LSU.
K-State’s three losses won’t hurt too much, as the Cats fell to USC, Miami and Nebraska.
There’s going to be some intrigue, and perhaps some ill will, when BYU hosts Kansas State on Feb. 10, because after Ques Glover left BYU and landed at KSU last summer, coach Jerome Tang said it was due to a “lack of trust” and “not a lack of NIL” in Provo.
BYU travels to KSU on Feb. 24.
8. Oklahoma (12-1)
After BYU, Oklahoma is perhaps the biggest surprise in the Big 12, after being picked to finish 12th. The Sooners are No. 11 in the latest AP Top 25, with a NET ranking of 28. They are 4-0 in Quad 2 games and 0-1 in Quad 1 games, their only loss coming at the hands of No. 8 North Carolina, an 81-69 setback on Dec. 20 in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Unlike its football team, OU’s basketball team won’t be traveling to Provo in the school’s last season in the Big 12. The only matchup between BYU and OU is a Feb. 6 game in Norman.
9. Texas Tech (11-2)
The Cougars pay a visit to the Red Raiders on Jan. 20 in the only meeting with Texas Tech.
One of Tech’s losses was to Butler in overtime at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The other was an 85-69 setback to Villanova in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. Joe Toussaint leads the Red Raiders with a 15.0 scoring average.
10. BYU (12-1)
The Cougars moved up two spots to No. 12 in the AP poll released Monday, the highest ranking under Pope in his five-year tenure. They are No. 2 in the NET rankings, with a 1-1 record in Quad 1 games (win over SDSU, loss at Utah).
“In terms of us, the part I am super happy about is I think our guys have a sense of who we would like to be. I think our guys have a pretty clear vision of how we are trying to attack this monster that we have this year,” Pope said before BYU hosted Wyoming. “We still have a lot of figuring out to do. There is only so much prep you can do, and then you just gotta go figure it out on the fly when you get punched the first time. But I am really pleased with our guys knowing who we are trying to be.”
BYU might have caught a scheduling break because it faces some of the better teams in the conference — Houston, Kansas, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma and Texas Tech — only once in 2024.
How many Big 12 wins, in 18 games, will it take to get BYU into the NCAA Tournament? Eight? Nine? Stay tuned.
11. Oklahoma State (7-5)
Losses to Abilene Christian, St. Bonaventure and Southern Illinois have ballooned the Pokes’ NET ranking to 137, but this program is too solid to look past. The Cowboys should recover and be able to play a spoiler role in the league race, with Javon Small and Bryce Thompson leading the way.
BYU travels to Stillwater on Feb. 17 and hosts the Cowboys on March 9 in its home and regular-season finale.
12. Cincinnati (11-2)
The Bearcats have two Quad 1 losses — at Xavier (84-79) and vs. Dayton (82-68) — but have otherwise played a fairly easy nonconference slate. Their game this Saturday at BYU is the first Big 12 contest for both schools, and should produce a sellout in Provo.
Utah Valley transfer Aziz Bandaogo is averaging 9.2 points in six appearances, and is “trending in the right direction” to be available for the BYU game, coach Wes Miller said on Monday, after battling some pesky injuries.
13. UCF (9-3)
Picked to finish dead last in the league (a spot behind BYU), the Knights have overachieved through the first two months under coach Johnny Dawkins. Losses to Stetson (85-82), Miami (88-72) and Ole Miss (70-68) hurt, but on the other end of the spectrum, UCF crushed most of the teams it was supposed to crush.
The squad’s NET ranking is 69, despite a heavy roster overhaul.
Central Florida hosts BYU a week from Saturday in the only matchup of the season between the Big 12 newcomers.
14. West Virginia (5-8)
After longtime coach Bob Huggins was pushed out and replaced by interim Josh Eilert in June, this figured to be a trying season for the Mountaineers. They were picked to finish ninth in the league, and to date haven’t shown much reason for their fans to believe they can crack the upper half of the Big 12.
Here’s one positive development: WVU hosts BYU on Feb. 3 and doesn’t have to make the long trip west to face the Cougars in 2024.
