As Big 12 mulls expansion, could ESPN put kibosh on it altogether?

Big 12 expansion won’t happen if Fox and ESPN have their way.

The two networks, according to a story from the Sports Business Journal, have reportedly pushed back against Big 12 expansion because they believe adding any of the teams currently mentioned in the expansion argument will “water down the Big 12 and make it less valuable.”

But why wouldn’t Fox want an opportunity to get into more households? The network’s game inventory isn’t even close to what ESPN’s is, and on any given Saturday last year, ESPN had three to five times as many games broadcasting on its networks as Fox did on its own.

Big 12 expansion would allow Fox to add games in possibly three different time zones, and it is in a position where the more games it can get, the better off it is.

So if Fox isn't aligning itself with ESPN, does the worldwide leader have a legitimate concern with “watering down” its product? Maybe. But most of the games on either ESPNU, ESPN2 or ESPNEWS are either two Group of Five teams playing each other or a conference matchup of Power 5 teams that pits the league’s bottom feeders against each other. And now with the Big 10, Pac-12 and SEC Networks, as well as the upcoming ACC Network, the numbers of P5-P5 games available for those networks will continue to diminish. With more members in the Big 12, ESPN would have more opportunities to put Power 5 teams on its networks, and ultimately could push some of the lesser-watched games to ESPN3.

So will adding two or four teams really water down anything the conference? It’s impossible to say with certainty either way.

The deals signed by the Big 12 and the two networks pay $2.6 billion over 13 years, or about $20-plus million per school annually. Because of the pro-rata clause in the contracts, though, the Big 12 would have to pay the league an extra $40-plus million per year if it added two teams, and $80-90 million a year if it added four.

No Big 12 school likes the idea of having to split up their NCAA Tournament, College Football Playoff and bowl game revenue between more members, but because any new schools wouldn’t receive a full television revenue share for the first three to four years, that money would go into the pockets of the 10 current Big 12 schools, ultimately offsetting their loss of revenue from splitting the postseason play revenue.

Of the potential candidates, BYU is the only one guaranteed to substantially expand the Big 12’s audience because of its worldwide following and ties to the Church of Latter-Day Saints. The school also already has a TV contract with ESPN that could be rolled into the current Big 12 deal with relative ease.

Central Florida, Cincinnati, South Florida, Memphis and Houston all offer a chance to get into some of the nation’s biggest TV markets, but none of those schools have shown to have a major foothold in any of their markets because of other college programs or NFL franchises. Colorado State has the most Big 12 alumni of any city in the country, but is in the same position as the aforementioned schools, with the Denver Broncos dominating the Denver TV and media market.

And that’s why Fox and ESPN (likely just ESPN) are resisting the Big 12’s wishes to expand. The two networks would shell out a combined $400-$800 million until the current contract ends in 2025-26. With both companies losing money because of a drop in subscriptions and viewership, as well as ESPN’s dreadful failure of a deal with the University of Texas, they are unwilling to part with more money without a substantial guaranteed growth in viewership.

Keegan Pope, GoldandGreenNews.com

That leaves the two sides at odds in regard to expansion, with anonymous ESPN and Fox executives telling the SBJ that they wouldn’t shy away from taking the Big 12 to court because expanding with lesser teams would violate the “spirit of the contract.”

I’m no lawyer, but I’m guessing the Big 12’s argument of what’s actually written into the contract is stronger than ESPN/Fox’s of the spirit of the deal. That’s not to say that a judge wouldn’t rule in favor of ESPN/Fox if it went that far, but it’s probably pretty unlikely.

The wild card in this situation, though, is Texas. According to scout.com’s Chip Brown, the school is unlikely to agree to an extension of the conference’s TV deal and grant of rights if the league decides to expand, likely because it wants to position itself to leave the Big 12 for another league if the Big 12’s revenues don’t begin to close the gap with the SEC and Big 10.

According to Brown, Texas would consider voting in favor of expansion if it didn’t come with the stipulation that the conference must extend the TV deal and grant of rights beyond 2025. That way, if Fox and ESPN decide not to renew the deal in 2025-26, Texas can begin looking for a home elsewhere without having to worry about paying buyouts to either the league or to its TV partners. Texas’ deal with the Longhorn Network/ESPN runs through 2030-31, but could be renegotiated if Texas were to leave the Big 12 for another conference aligned with ESPN before that deal ends.

But a lot can happen in 10 years. If the Big 12 chooses to expand to 14, will the Pac-12 follow suit and add two or four more teams? Could the ACC, Big 10 and SEC choose to expand to 16? At this point, nothing is out of the question. No one really ever thought Texas A&M, Nebraska, Missouri and Colorado would leave the Big 12, and look where college football is now.

College athletics, especially football, has grown bigger than anyone could have imagined 15-20 years ago, and just think what it will be in 2025 or 2030. The question becomes does Texas ultimately want to wait until 2025 to renew the grant of rights and possible TV deal?

Or maybe the bigger question is whether Fox and ESPN will still be the dominant players in the sports broadcasting market in 10 years. Companies like Apple, Amazon, Netflix and others could dip their feet into the sports market as more people start to cut the cord from satellite and cable and switch to pay-as-you-go streaming services that cost substantially less.

All of these are likely things Texas and its fellow Big 12 partners are considering as they move toward the projected date of their decision on expansion around Sept. 2.

Can the Big 12 afford to cower to ESPN and not expand?

Can they afford to fight back and potentially take their filthy-rich TV partners on in court? We’ll soon find out.

GoldandGreenNews.com digital producer Keegan Pope can be reached at keegan.pope21@gmail.com and on Twitter @ByKeeganPope.