Bettors love the under ahead of Buffalo's Week 18 visit to Miami

The Sunday night matchup will decide who wins the AFC East, and bettors aren't expecting a lot of points

Bettors are convinced there won’t be many points scored when the Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night.

More than 90% of the money is on the under at BetMGM ahead of the de facto AFC East title game. The winner of the game wins the division and gets the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. If Miami loses, the Dolphins will be the No. 6 seed and visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs. If Buffalo loses, the Bills could be out of the playoffs entirely, depending on the outcomes of other games.

The money on the under has pushed the total from 50 to 48.5. The Dolphins were blown out by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17, while the Bills benefitted from myriad Patriots turnovers in a home win over New England.

The Bills beat Miami earlier in the season in Buffalo and enter Sunday night’s game as 2.5-point favorites. The number crept up to three during the week but is back down to 2.5, even though three-quarters of the money wagered on the spread is on Buffalo to win and cover.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - DECEMBER 31: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins drops back and looks to pass during an NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Bettors still like the Ravens

Baltimore is resting MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and other key players, as it has the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs locked up thanks to the win over the Dolphins. The Ravens are 3.5-point underdogs at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers because they’re resting starters, but bettors haven't been dissuaded.

Nearly 75% of bets and exactly 75% of the money bet on the spread are on Baltimore to cover. The Bills will be rooting for the Ravens and Tyler Huntley to take down the Steelers. If the Steelers and Jaguars win their games, Buffalo is out of the playoffs with a loss to the Dolphins.

Some really low totals

Week 18 is an odd week, with so many teams resting players ahead of the playoffs. The number of backups playing this week has helped lead to a lot of totals under 40 points.

Six games have totals under 40, while no game has a total over 48.5. The lowest total of the weekend comes in New England, where two inept offenses meet. The total for the Jets and Patriots has dropped three points to 30.5.

The next two lowest totals involve games including lots of backups. The over/under is at 35 in Baltimore and at 35 in Los Angeles for the Chargers’ game against the Chiefs. With the No. 3 seed locked up, the Chiefs are resting key players, including Patrick Mahomes. Blaine Gabbert will make his first Chiefs start in Mahomes’ place.