NFL betting: 3 prime-time props for Rams at Cardinals

The Los Angeles Rams travel to Arizona (-2.5) to face the Cardinals in a rematch of their 37-20 loss back in Week 4. I’ll be honest, I went back and forth on this one. The data tells me the Rams come out the victor, but my logical mind says Kyler Murray’s squad is the better, more complete team.

As I tend to do, the props I target correlate to my prediction. Here are three player prop options for Monday Night Football.

Prop: Zach Ertz OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-110)

Since being acquired by the Cardinals midseason, the Arizona TE has been a fit, with at least three targets in five of his last six games. My favorite prop is actually Ertz OVER 3.5 receptions but it comes with a hefty (-160) price. I could not justify paying that considering injury is always a possibility.

Instead, I’ll look at his receiving yards because in six games with the Cardinals, Ertz has hit the OVER on this total in four. Last week’s matchup against the Bears can be ignored because though Ertz had just one reception for 10 yards, the weather played a huge role in the game plan. With 25-to-35 mile per hour winds and 55 mph gusts, the Cardinals went with a run-heavy approach.

On Monday night, Ertz gets a Rams defense that has allowed the OVER on this total to seven different tight ends, including three of the last five played.

Prop: Zach Ertz anytime touchdown +240

Ertz has just three scores in his six games played with the Cardinals and the Rams have allowed a touchdown to a TE on just four occasions. However, three of those scores have come against the last four tight ends, including San Francisco’s George Kittle (50 receiving yards, one touchdown, five receptions).

Looking back at the Week 4 matchup, Cardinals TE Maxx Williams, now on IR, posted five receptions, 66 yards, plus one score. Something similar could occur again but this time with Ertz.

Prop: A.J. Green longest reception OVER 20.5

The Cardinals WR has a solid matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed 167 receiving yards per game. Excluding last week’s weather game against Chicago, in eight games played with QB Kyler Murray behind center, Green has hit this number in seven.

Here’s the thing about the Rams defense. The last few quarterbacks faced include Trevor Lawrence, Ryan Tannehill, Davis Mills, Jared Goff, and Daniel Jones. Not the most solid of resumes. Against better quarterbacks, the Rams secondary allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw for a 28, 54, and 43-yard pass; Jimmy Garoppolo to throw for a 21 and 40-yard pass; and even Houston’s Davis Mills was allowed his best game of the season with a 24, 23, 31, 26 and 45-yard pass.

The key is figuring which receiver Murray will look towards. Christian Kirk leads in targets, but Green is second in yards, leads in receiving average and is tied with Kirk for most receiving plays of 20 yards or more. I’ll take the chance on Green.