Best Arbitrage Plays to Win Your Fantasy League in 2023

Is Kmet being undervalued in fantasy drafts?

Patrick Daugherty, Kyle Dvorchak and Denny Carter debate whether or not Chicago Bears TE Cole Kmet is being undervalued in fantasy football right now.

There are few things in life as exciting as fantasy draft season. Apologies to all the marriages, newborns, high school/college graduations, and life achievements that are to come; nothing matches the unparalleled excitement of a perfectly executed draft.

An offseason chock full of research and preparation has led to this moment. As you get ready for your draft and enter the lobby with your best-laid plans, you are certain nobody in the room is as prepared as you are.

Then suddenly, things go South.

The running back you thought would land to you in the middle of the third round went late in the second, and the quarterback you were eyeing in the eighth round went to the homer in the sixth. Suddenly, you're flailing. The early rounds of your draft have been thrown into chaos thanks to a few of your league mates, and now it's time to pivot.

But who are you pivoting to?

I've taken some time to prepare for such an event, as these things tend to happen quite often in our drafts. If we aren't ready to pivot off our top one or two targets, we stand to get left in the dust and wind up as the latest fantasy loser whose league punishment is trending on Twitter.

We don't want that.

In hopes of avoiding a lifetime of shame and embarrassment, here are some arbitrage plays you can consider pivoting to if your draft starts to go off the rails.

Note: The ADP provided is courtesy of Fantasy Pros’ composite ADP as of August 1, 2023. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Quarterbacks

A handful of elite options exist at the quarterback position. Guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts give fantasy managers the luxury to "set it and forget it" in 1QB leagues.

Those who opt to kick the position down the road a bit are left with slightly more shaky options, but players with high-end upside still exist. Not all hope is lost for those unable to get one of the higher-end options in the league, we have to know where to look.

Anthony Richardson, IND (QB16)

As rumors of Richardson opening Week 1 as the starter grow, so should his fantasy outlook. Richardson is listed as our QB10 in the 2023 Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide, so it's safe to say we love his outlook. At his current ADP, Richardson gives off 2019 Lamar Jackson vibes. Rotoworld thought leader and high-volume Threader Denny Carter said as much when he re-Threaded me (?) earlier this week.

No, Richardson will not emerge to have an MVP-caliber season in his rookie campaign, but I think people are sleeping on the elite fantasy production that can come from his rushing upside. It's not every day we get a free shot at a quarterback whose rushing production could propel him into QB1 territory, but here we are.

Colts head coach Shane Steichen found multiple ways to utilize Jalen Hurts' mobility during their days in Philadelphia and is expected to use Richardson in a similar fashion. If the Colts don't lead the league in rushing, they'll undoubtedly be in the top five, with Richardson seeing a large chunk of those attempts.

Jackson was named the Ravens' starter in Week 11 of the 2018 season. From then on, Baltimore led the league with a 65 percent neutral rush rate, while Jackson ranked 25th in pass attempts. Still, Jackson's rushing upside helped him produce as the QB10 in fantasy points per game (21.3) for those final seven games. The Colts might not run at a 65 percent clip like Baltimore, but Jackson's fantasy success as a rookie suggests Richardson could follow a similar path.

Jared Goff, DET (QB17)

Fantasy managers have no problem buying in on Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions WR1 is currently going as the ninth wide receiver off the board, while Goff is being drafted as a backup on most fantasy rosters.

Last season, Goff's 9-8 Lions finished as the fifth-highest-scoring offense in the league (26.6 PPG) and ranked eighth in passing yards per game (251.8). Goff's doubters were left in shambles when he finished with a line similar to the player who is currently going as the QB8 in redraft leagues, while his overall efficiency ranked among the league's best.

Goff's adjusted EPA of 0.194 ranked sixth amongst qualified quarterbacks (min. 320 plays), while the Lions' offense tied for eighth in success rate (45.8 percent). Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is back for his second season with the team, despite being a top head coaching candidate this offseason, and the team added rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta to bolster the receiving game. Former first-round pick Jameson Williams is also expected to turn in a solid season after a lost 2022 — of course; he first needs to serve his six-game gambling suspension.

The Lions' defense should once again rank near the bottom of the league, which will force the team to air it out at a high rate, giving Goff plenty of shots at fantasy success. He finished as the QB15 in fantasy points per game last season (19.8) but had seven top-12 weeks overall. He was also top six in attempts (587), yards, and touchdown passes.

Running Backs

If you're not a Robust RB drafter, you're left scrounging for running back production in hopes of keeping pace with the teams who drafted Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, etc. Hopefully, your wide receiver selections make this process a bit easier, but we still need to get the position right.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll look at a few running backs currently going outside the top-24 who could return high-end production if a few things break right for them.

You'd be shocked to know several interesting running back options exist outside the top-24. This includes several who I'd be willing to start in one of my two running back slots if I've decided to take a more of a Zero RB approach.

Jamaal Williams, NO (RB33)

Just because you were last year's leader in rushing touchdowns (17) doesn't mean your team will bring you back the following season. Jamaal Williams found this out when the Lions let him bolt for New Orleans in free agency rather than sign him to a new deal.

Let's go ahead and get one thing out of the way now. I highly doubt Williams will replicate the 17 touchdowns he produced in 2022. However, he should see plenty of goal-line looks for a Saints, especially early on, with Alvin Kamara likely to be slapped with a suspension.

Rookie Kendre Miller has gained some fantasy steam as the likely pass-catching back while Kamara is out, but we can't fully ignore Williams' body of work as a pass-catcher throughout his career. Williams caught 70 passes for 489 yards and six touchdowns in his final two years at Green Bay and has 160 career receptions. At worst, Williams is a back who should handle double-digit touches per game and see high-value touches near the goal line. At best, he catches an unexpected amount of passes that help raise his somewhat touchdown-dependent floor.

Antonio Gibson, WSH (RB35)
Brian Robinson, WSH (RB36)

I can't quit Antonio Gibson. The former wide receiver converted to a running back upon entering the NFL and has gone on to catch the 11th-most receptions (124) of any running back since 2020. Gibson's receptions have steadily increased every year he's been in the league, and this season he's expected to see the majority of third-down snaps with J.D. McKissic now gone.

As I mentioned in my 2023 Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview, since 2020, Commanders running backs have ranked third in expected fantasy points via the pass. After catching 46 passes last season, it isn't farfetched to think Gibson could catch 60+ passes in 2023, especially with Sam Howell at quarterback, who is essentially entering his rookie campaign.

Living in Antonio Gibson opposite world is Brian Robinson. While I didn't love Robinson as a prospect, I can't deny how the team utilized him last season. Robinson didn't suit up for a game until Week 5, but from then on, he handled the seventh-most rush attempts of any back in the league (205) and was the RB24 in expected fantasy points (133.8). He's a near-lock to earn goal-line touches for the Commanders and should provide more touchdowns than the two he gave us last season.

Jerick McKinnon, KC (RB39)

The mainstream media doesn't want you to know that Jerick McKinnon has been the most efficient fantasy asset at the running back position.

Among players who have totaled 150+ fantasy points since 2020, McKinnon ranks first in fantasy points per touch (1.3) and averaged a solid 11.7 fantasy points per game last season. McKinnon's 2023 campaign was propped up by career-highs in receptions (56), receiving yards (512), and receiving touchdowns (9), but he also saw significant red zone work.

His 36 red zone opportunities ranked 24th among running backs, but he was second in red zone targets and finished 10th in red zone scoring. Replicating his nine receiving touchdowns this season could prove difficult, but McKinnon should open the season as the Chiefs' top third-down back. McKinnon totaled just 17 targets through the Chiefs' first seven games of the season but averaged 5.4 targets per game in the final 10 games.

McKinnon isn't expected to handle many rush attempts, but he's a trusted pass-blocker and receiver. McKinnon is a solid PPR stash who could replicate last year's target volume by playing on a team that should see plenty of red-zone opportunities this season.

Damien Harris, BUF (RB43)

Is there a more boring running back than Damien Harris? All he does is handle early down work and score touchdowns. It's truly tragic.

Harris joined the Bills on a one-year deal earlier this offseason and is expected to take the load off Josh Allen regarding short-yardage and goal-line plunges. Allen's 32 rush attempts in goal-to-go situations rank 20th among all running backs and quarterbacks over the last two years, while Harris' 36 attempts in the same scenario are good for 16th.

The Bills knew what they were doing in signing Harris. Among running backs with 20+ green zone carries since last season, Harris' 38.9 percent touchdown rate ranks 10th. He posted an impressive 15 touchdowns in 2021 and has averaged 4.7 yards per carry for his career.

If there's a player who could be 2023's version of what Jamaal Williams gave us last year, it may be Harris, who should see plenty of goal-line plunges in an offense that will be among the league's best.

Wide Receivers

Like we did with the running backs, let's look at some receivers outside the top-24. Some of these plays may not feel quite as arbitrary for folks playing in leagues that require them to start three receivers, but any receivers going outside of the top-24 tend to have their question marks.

Diontae Johnson, PIT (WR31)

If we aren't fading Diontae Johnson for his drops, we're fading him because of his inability to get into the end zone. The Steelers' WR1 closed out a 2022 campaign with zero touchdowns despite totaling the seventh-most targets (147) and the 13th-most receptions (88). He managed just 882 yards in Kenny Pickett's rookie campaign, but he still ended the year with a 10.7 aDOT, narrowly edging out Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja'Marr Chase in that category — to name a few.

Assuming Pickett takes a leap in year two, Johnson should stand to benefit from that. Among the 51 receivers to see 80+ targets last season, Johnson ranked 43rd in catchable pass rate (73 percent). He ranked dead last among every receiver in the league in fantasy points over expectation (-60.3) but was 17th in expected fantasy points (241.1). Pro Football Focus' expected touchdowns metric projected Johnson for 6.6 touchdowns last season.

He's a true candidate for a bounce-back in every sense of the word, especially if he sees a target share similar to the 27 percent he received last season.

Treylon Burks, TEN (WR37)

Treylon Burks was already being slept on heading into 2023. Then the Titans acquired DeAndre Hopkins, only further suppressing Burks' ADP.

The Titans selected Burks with the 18th overall pick in last year's draft, but an underwhelming rookie season followed a slow start to training camp, as the former Arkansas Razorback finished the year with 33 receptions for 444 yards and one touchdown. When he did have the ball in his hands, Burks averaged a solid 5.4 YAC/REC, ranking 12th among receivers with 50+ targets.

Burks showed sure hands when targeted, dropping just one of the 53 passes that came his way, and he hauled in an impressive 58.3 percent of his contested targets.

Reportedly in better shape than last year when he reported to camp, Burks has had a solid start to his offseason.

Burks is a legitimate threat to outplay his current WR4 ADP and could offer several top-24 fantasy performances this season.

Elijah Moore, CLE (WR54)

If you didn't know any better, you'd think Elijah Moore was the Browns' WR1 based on offseason reports.

The team has gone out of its way to hype Moore up all offseason since they acquired him from the Jets via trade.

In early June, The Athletic's Zac Jackson said, "It's clear the Browns want to get him the ball on short passes and let him create." A few weeks later, Jackson circled back, calling Moore an "easy pick as an early breakout candidate based on the Browns' spring work."

It's easy to forget how good Moore was as a rookie before Robert Saleh came to town.

Before an injury ended his 2021 rookie campaign, Moore was on a 17-game pace for 215.9 fantasy points, which would have been enough to qualify as a breakout season. After a slow start to his season, Moore would go on to post three top-12 weeks in his final five games, which included two top-three PPR finishes.

Moore should have plenty of room to operate in the slot this season and be utilized in screens and end-arounds. While the Browns struggled when Deshaun Watson returned from suspension, the offense is expected to take a big step forward in 2023.

If Moore's production is as real as his hype, we could see him return to the rookie form that had us high on him heading into last season.

Tight Ends

"There are rich teams, and there are poor teams. Then there's 50 feet of crap, and then there's us."

This quote, which was taken from the movie Moneyball is just as applicable to the tight end position as it was to the Oakland A's financial status when Billy Beane was trying to navigate his way through the 2002 offseason.

When it comes to tight ends in fantasy, there are the elite few up top; then there's a handful of players who are all more or less the same.

For some perspective, the difference between RB1 and RB12 in fantasy was 7.3 points per game. At wide receiver, the difference between WR1 and WR12 was 7.1 points. Last year, Travis Kelce averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game, which was 9.5 points per game more than TE12 Pat Freiermuth (9.3). Last year's TE7 was Evan Engram, who averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game — a mere 1.3 points more than Freiermuth.

In total, we saw 12 tight ends average between 8.0 to 9.9 fantasy points per game last season. The lowest scorer of this group was Jordan Akins, who posted a line of 37-495-5 on 54 targets.

There aren't many tight ends I'd advocate for intentionally targeting late, but one option does stand out above the rest.

Tyler Higbee, LAR (TE14)

There were four tight ends who totaled 100+ targets in 2022. Three of them are currently going as the first three tight ends off the board.

The other is Tyler Higbee.

The idea of drafting Higbee in a vacuum is gross. He had an absurdly low 3.1 aDOT in 2022 and has averaged less than 10 yards per reception in each of his last two seasons. That said, Higbee's raw volume numbers were among the highest in the league at his position.

Cooper Kupp remains with the team, but the Rams have a relatively thin pass-catching corps. ESPN's Mike Clay also projects the Rams the 32nd-ranked defense in the league, which means the offense should be playing catchup all season.

For all his underwhelming metrics, Higbee could again be one of the few tight ends to see 100+ targets in 2023.