Berry's RB Love/Hate: Bijan, Pollard headline
Matthew Berry, Connor Rogers and Jay Croucher discuss their post-NFL Draft RB Love/Hates, evaluate fantasy values for Atlanta Falcons' Bijan Robinson, Dallas Cowboys' Tony Pollard and more.
Video Transcript
CONNOR ROGERS: Love/hate running back time, and there is no better player to start with than Bijan Robinson, not only the best running back in this draft, top five player in this draft. Just the classic Arthur Smith had to have it selection.
You look at Arthur Smith, I mean, when he was the offensive coordinator for Tennessee into 2019-2020. They ran Derrick Henry into the ground. And why not? And that gives you a lot of hope for Bijan Robinson, who is an immensely talented three-down player out of the backfield.
So Berry, I mean, a lot to love with this selection, this landing spot. Of course, most importantly, the player.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. I mean, first off, we should just sort of paraphrase that, hey, love/hate is about players whose fantasy stock improved because of what their teams did during the NFL draft. Sometimes it's players drafted. Sometimes it's players on their teams hate, of course, is the opposite. And Bijan Robinson lands in Atlanta a team that led the NFL in running back rushing yards last year.
Had the second most running back carries with a fifth-round rookie in Cordarrelle Patterson. And now they get Bijan Robinson. And I think you think about Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, when he had Derrick Henry. 718 touches in the two seasons that Smith was the OC for Tennessee, that's in the realm of possibility here.
I'm not saying Bijan Robinson is Derrick Henry. I think he's more versatile. To your point, like we talked about this on draft night, you can put him in the slot. You can put him in the passing game.
You can do a lot of different things, put him in motion. So I think Bijan Robinson is basically like a rich man's version of Cordarrelle Patterson. I mean, they found some success the last two years with Patterson, using his versatility in a bunch of different ways. And all due respect to Patterson, who I love, who I've always carried the flag for. He ain't Bijan Robinson.
I mean, Bijan Robinson is just--
CONNOR ROGERS: [INAUDIBLE]
MATTHEW BERRY: Right. Exactly. So I mean, I think he's an immediate top-five fantasy running back this year.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah. And I think the thing with Bijan is this is probably the best possible landing spot in terms of fantasy value. This would be the one team you would actually pick above everyone else. I mean, there was rumors initially that he might go to Dallas, which would have been, frankly, a disaster from a fantasy perspective because it would have tanked both him and Tony Paul.
But the fact that he goes to Atlanta, and I know there's some concern about Tyler Allgeier. I don't think Tyler Allgeier is cutting into Bijan Robinson. I think it's just going to be the Derrick Henry show but with Bijan.
MATTHEW BERRY: Tyler Allgeier is insurance if you draft Bijan Robinson, but I think you could see some plays. They'll have some packages where Allgeier is in the backfield. And maybe they both start in the backfield, and then Bijan Robinson moves out to the slot or something like that or goes in motion. But if you draft Bijan Robinson, your concerns are not going to be Tyler Allgeier cutting into his-- you know what I mean?
OK. Fine. He doesn't get 28 touches a game. He gets 24? Like, you're going to be just fine and very happy if you have Bijan Robinson on your fantasy team this year.
CONNOR ROGERS: And how about this? The Falcons, it got even better on day two. They took Matthew Bergeron from Syracuse. He's going to move from tackle to guard. I thought he was one of the best run blockers in the entire draft. They already have Chris Lindstrom, a top-five guard in the NFL.
So Bijan is going to a team that there's a really good run blocking offensive line in front of him. So much to love about Bijan. Let's close it on this.
I know this is wildly early, but clearly first-round pick in redraft leagues and where? Like, how high can you take him?
MATTHEW BERRY: I think if he was drafted within the top six or seven, you know, you're not--
CONNOR ROGERS: It's not crazy, right?
MATTHEW BERRY: They're not crazy, right? I mean, honestly, I think he's probably top-- my overall top 100 for the season is going to come out on Thursday of this week. And so I'm still noodling with it, but you've got a couple of wide receivers there. Obviously, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase at the top. And then you've got some of the other running backs as well.
You've got the McCaffrey's, and we'll see about Ekeler there as well. But Bijan's right there. It's not a long list of running backs that you feel like you would rather have than him.
JAY CROUCHER: Is it just McCaffrey and Ekeler? Jacobs? Maybe Jacobs. I'd rather have--
MATTHEW BERRY: Jacobs, Saquon. Jacobs, Saquon. He's in that mix.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: Like, he's in that Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs mix.
JAY CROUCHER: Jonathan Taylor.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. I mean, they're all sort of right there. And so my guess is that, again, I have to still crunch a few numbers. But there's a very good chance that, yeah, it's McCaffrey and Ekeler are the only two running backs I have ranked higher than him.
JAY CROUCHER: Yep.
CONNOR ROGERS: Next up on the love list, Tony Pollard, as Dallas, the only running back they added was Deuce Vaughn. And that was in the sixth round and far from a workhorse is Deuce Vaughn. But sticking with Pollard here, I mean, this has to help his rankings just because it's all designed to be the Tony Pollard show.
MATTHEW BERRY: He's had 13 career games where he's gotten at least 15 touches, right? He averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game in those 13 career games where he's gotten 15 or more touches, which, again, given the fact that Ezekiel Elliott's no longer on this team, there's talk that they might bring him back. But at the moment, to your point, the Cowboys were rumored to be on the Bijan Robinson sweepstakes.
They didn't add really anyone other than Deuce Vaughn in the sixth round, which means Tony Pollard has got this job to himself. And he should be getting at least 15 touches per game. And if career averages mean anything, 19.6 fantasy points per game last year, guys, would have been running back three.
The list we just mentioned of McCaffrey, Ekeler, Jacobs, Barkley, and Bijan Robinson-- Tony Pollard is right in that mix as well. Like, he's a clear-cut top-10 fantasy running back this season.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah. And also just with how dynamic he is in the passing game, too, if he just gets 15 carries per game, that could make him the best running back in football from fantasy perspective.
MATTHEW BERRY: 15 carries and three or four receptions. Mike McCarthy said this off-season know he's going to be calling the plays this year. Kellen Moore now in Los Angeles with the Chargers. Mike McCarthy said he wants to run more, which is a little nutty given that you're paying Dak Prescott what you're paying him, but whatever, Mike McCarthy.
The fact of the matter is is Pollard should be used early and often. Again, with at the moment, we'll see if Zeke comes back. But at the moment, the only person, the only real competition for touches back there, feels like Deuce Vaughn, who they draft in the sixth round. And Deuce Vaughn I feel like was a better draft day story than necessarily a threat to Tony Pollard playing time.
CONNOR ROGERS: He absolutely was. I mean, 5' 5'', 579 pounds. He is going to be a sprinkle him in as a pass catching back. And while that was great news for Tony Pollard's usage, it was even better news for the Vaughn family.
Deuce's dad Chris, a scout with the Cowboys, and got to make that decision for him to go to Dallas.
[MUSIC PLAYING]
CHRIS VAUGHN: Hey, buddy.
DEUCE VAUGHN: How's it going?
CHRIS VAUGHN: Hey, it's going good. This is dad. My phone wasn't working.
Look here, man. You want to come to work with me next week? [CHUCKLES]
MATTHEW BERRY: I wouldn't mind that at all.
[LAUGHTER]
[APPLAUSE, CHEERING]
JERRY JONES: I'm so excited. There's just something magical about this moment that may be bigger than we even realize here talking to you on the phone. But you is now a Dallas Cowboy.
Your daddy just handed the card in.
[APPLAUSE]
MIKE MCCARTHY: Hey, Deuce. Mike McCarthy. Congratulations.
DEUCE VAUGHN: What's up, coach? I appreciate it.
MIKE MCCARTHY: I'll tell you. What I've been doing this a long time. This is so special for you and your family. And if you can, if you could make sure you drive, so make sure your dad's on time for work. We'd appreciate it.
CONNOR ROGERS: Awesome moment for the Vaughn family and for the Dallas Cowboys as well.
MATTHEW BERRY: Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy, just a stray bullet. And apparently Deuce Vaughn had a little party.
JAY CROUCHER: [LAUGHS]
CONNOR ROGERS: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: At work. Like, what's going on?
CONNOR ROGERS: The greatest moment for the Vaughn family of their entire lives. Mike McCarthy goes--
MATTHEW BERRY: McCarthy still has to--
CONNOR ROGERS: It's Mike McCarthy's time.
MATTHEW BERRY: Exactly.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: Mike McCarthy's still got to--
CONNOR ROGERS: You guys have that in common. When things are going really well, how about a little joke in there somewhere?
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, exactly. Just kind of-- well, right. Exactly.
JAY CROUCHER: Also a stray bullet at Mike McCarthy there from Matthew Berry. Just love taking shots at Mike McCarthy.
MATTHEW BERRY: I love taking shots at Mike McCarthy. I'm no fan of Mike McCarthy. There. I'll just say it.
I've hidden it well, I think, for a couple of years. #FreeAaronJones. I did start that. That's when it started. That's when decided I truly did not like Mike McCarthy as a head coach.
I've never met him as a person. He might be a lovely human being, but as a head professional football coach, I am not a fan.
CONNOR ROGERS: Mike McCarthy--
MATTHEW BERRY: I'm not a fan.
CONNOR ROGERS: --a diamond club member of the hate list, but back to the love list. Rhamondre--
MATTHEW BERRY: No one has done less with more talent than Mike McCarthy in the NFL.
CONNOR ROGERS: Rhamondre Stevenson.
MATTHEW BERRY: Get Aaron Rodgers! I mean, for a long time.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
CONNOR ROGERS: He did.
JAY CROUCHER: He made the Super Bowl once.
MATTHEW BERRY: Once.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yep.
JAY CROUCHER: With the most talented quarterback--
MATTHEW BERRY: With the most talented quarterback ever, with one of the five greatest quarterbacks to ever play the sport.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, once.
JAY CROUCHER: 15 and 1. Lost to the Giants. Eli? Yeah. [INAUDIBLE] Hail Mary. Yeah, it didn't work out for Mike McCarthy.
CONNOR ROGERS: Mike McCarthy roast. Good lord. Rhamondre Stevenson makes the love list.
MATTHEW BERRY: But we're happy for the Vaughn family.
JAY CROUCHER: Yes.
MATTHEW BERRY: But, you know, what a great moment for the--
CONNOR ROGERS: Great moment for the Vaughn family. Spoiled Mike McCarthy.
MATTHEW BERRY: As everything is.
CONNOR ROGERS: --Deuce Vaughn the right way.
MATTHEW BERRY: As everything always is. But the theme of established running backs that have sort of the backfield to themselves, and you go through the draft hoping like, oh, please don't take anyone that's going to be real competition for him. The Cowboys did not add anyone as of this moment. That is real competition from Tony Pollard and Conner.
Neither did the Patriots.
CONNOR ROGERS: Which is shocking because they love to take day three running backs. They took two last year, but, Jay, this year they said, no, we're good. Rhamondre Stevenson, it is your time. They did not add a running back at all throughout this draft.
JAY CROUCHER: That's always been weird, Belichick's infatuation with adding running backs earlier. Remember Sony Michel? Did he go in the first round?
CONNOR ROGERS: He certainly did.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah. That didn't make any sense at the time--
CONNOR ROGERS: How abut Laurence Maroney?
JAY CROUCHER: Laurence Maroney, the great Laurence Maroney. Yeah. With Rhamondre, the thing is-- and we've talked about this before-- but he was banged up for most of last year, where he's always on the injury report. Didn't look the same. And, obviously, you know he had workload issues too.
But he's a guy who-- like, I wouldn't be surprised if he led the league in rushing. Like, he has that kind of upside. So Rhamondre, he'll be a top-10 running back drafted off the board I would think next season.
MATTHEW BERRY: What was exciting for me last year is that he had 17% target share, right? Third highest among running backs. And so we'll see. You know, there's rumors about Mac Jones maybe moving on, but at the moment it's either going to be Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe under center for the Patriots.
And they don't mind checking down. And so Rhamondre Stevenson not only has the between-the-tackles role that him and Damien Harris split last year because Harris, of course, is in Buffalo. But he's got the, quote unquote, James White role.
JAY CROUCHER: Yep.
MATTHEW BERRY: He's going to have the pass catching role as well. It is Rhamondre Steven season.
JAY CROUCHER: Again. Part two.
MATTHEW BERRY: SCN. Yeah. Very excited for him. Easy top-12 running back this year from Rhamondre Stevenson.
CONNOR ROGERS: Another one here, James Conner. Arizona goes out and gets one of the best offensive linemen in the draft in the first round in Paris Johnson. But you look at this depth chart, guys.
It's James Conner, and it's Corey Clement. Keaontay Ingram. They didn't draft a running back. It's all there for James Conner.
MATTHEW BERRY: It is. Again, there's going to be-- like, there's a couple of veterans that are still out there. Just before we went to air, the Bills signed Latavius Murray. Ezekiel Elliott is the biggest name that's still out there, but there's guys that are still out there. So we'll see.
Zeke's going to land somewhere, and that's going to hurt the fantasy value of whoever he gets. But at the moment, to your point, it's only Corey Clement and Keaontay Ingram. They like Ingram, and I thought Ingram had some nice moments last year, but James Conner is their workhorse. Back-to-back seasons with over 1,000 total yards and eight touchdowns.
He's one of only seven running backs that can say that. He's averaged over 15 fantasy points per game each of the last two years. And for all the concerns about the injury history with James Conner, this is the guy who's played at least 90% of the snaps five of the last seven games. He battled through injuries each of the last two years.
You know, he always misses a little bit of time, but I feel like he's kind of shaken the really injury-prone bug. And what's nice about Conner is the pass catching ability. So this team is going to be bad.
CONNOR ROGERS: Really bad.
MATTHEW BERRY: The Cardinals are going to be bad. The Cardinals are going to be in the hunt for the number one overall pick next year, especially, by the way, if they decide to take their time and letting Kyler Murray come back.
JAY CROUCHER: Which they will, surely.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yes.
MATTHEW BERRY: Right? They're just like, it ain't our year. Right?
CONNOR ROGERS: With the new regime and new coach, they have no rush.
MATTHEW BERRY: --our year. No pressure. You know what? Kyler, take your time.
JAY CROUCHER: Yep.
MATTHEW BERRY: And so as a result-- but what that means is because Conner is a nice pass catcher, he's not somebody that has to come off on third down when they're trailing, when they're down big. So James Conner I think is a top 20 fantasy running back and somebody that when you go into drafts, no one will be excited when you draft him. But all he's going to do is produce for you.
JAY CROUCHER: Yep. 58 targets last year. I think that was the big thing, and also showing that he could produce on a bad team, which the Cardinals were last year and probably will be again this year. I mean, he had the awesome year two years ago when they were a playoff team and in the mix for the one seed. And he had 15 touchdowns, but he's still able to go over 1,000 yards and still get a decent number of touchdowns on a mediocre team.
MATTHEW BERRY: He is one of the best finishers around the goal line in the NFL. And so we expect that role to continue as well.
CONNOR ROGERS: Staying in the NFC, the Bucs also did not draft a running back, much like Arizona didn't. Rachaad White right now. Berry, I know he's hanging around your top 25 running backs in your projected rankings.
I mean, this depth chart, guys. You have Rachaad White, Chase Edmonds, Ke'Shawn Vaughn. We know they let Leonard Fournette go this off-season. Another group that there's just not much there.
MATTHEW BERRY: And the comments coming out of Tampa Bay in the off-season have been like, we think he can be a stud. That's their words, you know, that he can be a true three-down back. We saw moments of it last year. I think he can take the next step.
That's what's exciting is is that this is somebody that coming out of college wasn't profiled as a, quote, third down back. Right? I mean, he sort of had to become that with Leonard Fournette last year. And Tom Brady trusted him in pass pro.
Now, whether it's Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center, don't be surprised if they're dumping it off a lot. So because the pass catching role of White-- and we know he can go between the tackles-- again, it's going to be a bad team. But it's not a division that scares you, and the workload, especially the passing game usage, should elevate him.
Again, to your point, he's somewhere in that 20 to 25 range.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah. I think they're the weirdest team in the league.
CONNOR ROGERS: Right.
JAY CROUCHER: The Bucs don't really understand what's going on. They in theory should be rebuilding without Brady. But you know there's still Godwin, and Evans, and the offensive line is OK. The defense should be pretty good.
Baker Mayfield is just randomly and the starting quarterback. I don't really understand this team at all, but certainly we've got some upsides. They could win that division. Why not?
CONNOR ROGERS: It's a veteran roster with no clear-cut answer at quarterback.
MATTHEW BERRY: No. But by the way, if there's no clear-cut answer at quarterback, you know what you do? You hand it off.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yep.
MATTHEW BERRY: You go you go run-heavy. They have a defensive-minded head coach. He may just say, listen, we don't have TB12 back there anymore. Like, you're handing it off.
I want to go-- I'm going to try to win every game 15-14. You know what I mean?
CONNOR ROGERS: It's the Todd Bowles way.
MATTHEW BERRY: No. Exactly. No, seriously. Todd Bowles just be like 17-14. That's my ideal win, and I want to run the ball 30 times. And anyway.
Rachaad White is somebody that comes out of the draft as a love because Tampa Bay was a team that was rumored to maybe look to add running back depth. And they didn't.
CONNOR ROGERS: Back to the rookies here. Jahmyr Gibbs, a surprise top-15 pick, and listen. I mean, for the Lions here, it was out with D'Andre Swift immediately. In with Jahmyr Gibbs, explosive big play threat both as an outside runner and as a pass catcher. 11 of the last 12 running backs to be drafted in the first round.
Saw 200-plus touches during their rookie season. So Jahmyr Gibbs-- I know it's kind of a crowded backfield. But when you value him that way, it doesn't matter.
MATTHEW BERRY: Here's the thing. At the moment of draft day, we're like, what? [GROANS]
[CHUCKLING]
Oh, what are you doing? But now--
JAY CROUCHER: Exactly what I did.
MATTHEW BERRY: Now that D'Andre Swift is no longer there-- and we'll talk about that in a second-- but our immediate reaction was when we were doing our draft reaction was, man--
CONNOR ROGERS: What are they doing?
MATTHEW BERRY: Just when you thought the Detroit Lions couldn't hate D'Andre Swift anymore, they truly with a fiery passion, with a Jay Croucher-like passion hate Jahmyr Gibbs. And I'm sorry. Hate D'Andre Swift.
They love Jahmyr Gibbs. They hate D'Andre Swift, much in the way that Jay Croucher hates you but by spoiling all the movies.
[CHUCKLING]
And what I would tell you and all of us, by the way, just so you know, he hates all of us.
JAY CROUCHER: I really do.
MATTHEW BERRY: Right, especially me and Connor.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: But what I will tell you here is that I love, love, love this landing spot with Jahmyr Gibbs. Now that D'Andre Swift is on the Eagles-- and we'll talk about that in a second-- he goes to a team that has a great offensive line, has a really creative play-caller in Ben Johnson, is looking for offense, especially with Jameson Williams suspended for six games, TJ Hockenson in Minnesota. Other than Amon-Ra St. Brown, they don't have an established play-maker.
Now, David Montgomery is on the roster, but I've got news for you. David Montgomery is good. David Montgomery is just there. David Montgomery is just a guy who shows up.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: He's fine. You know what I mean? But he just shows up. Gibbs has a chance to be special. Remember D'Andre Swift.
For all the hatred of D'Andre Swift in Detroit, the fact is this is a guy who saw at least 70 targets each of the last two years. Each of the three seasons is in Detroit. D'Andre Swift finished as a top 15 fantasy running back on a points-per-game basis.
Again, he missed time. They didn't like him. They wouldn't give him double-digit touches, and yet he still found a way to being a top-15 fantasy running back. Now you get Jahmyr Gibbs behind that offensive line in that offense with a team that has invested serious draft capital into him.
My guess is that when early drafts happen, Montgomery will go ahead of Gibbs because people will assume Montgomery is getting the Jamaal Williams role and the more touchdown. But I think there's-- much like last year, we kept saying, guys, give me Rhamondre Stevenson over Damien Harris.
Give me Jahmyr Gibbs over David Montgomery. I'm calling it right now. Give me Jahmyr Gibbs over David Montgomery.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah. First of all, brutal attack on David Montgomery being talked about like a guy who's just like in the--
[INTERPOSING VOICES]
MATTHEW BERRY: By the way, he is just a guy.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: He's one he's one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL.
JAY CROUCHER: No. He's on the computer.
[LAUGHTER]
MATTHEW BERRY: Connor Rogers.
CONNOR ROGERS: I mean, listen. I'm all on the Gibbs train for this one. But I do worry that Campbell looks at Montgomery and goes between the tackles, goal line touches.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's like, you know-- David Montgomery is-- if we were in baseball, he is an innings eater. That's what he is.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: He's like--
CONNOR ROGERS: Long relief.
JAY CROUCHER: He's Jeff Suppan.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yes. Exactly.
[LAUGHTER]
CONNOR ROGERS: That's an incredible call.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yes.
CONNOR ROGERS: Oh, god.
MATTHEW BERRY: Tell me I'm wrong.
JAY CROUCHER: I'm the only Australian who's made reference to Jeff Suppan today in the state of Connecticut.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. Yeah, and probably in the United States.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah. We share confirmation.
MATTHEW BERRY: But Conner, like, are you a Montgomery guy?
CONNOR ROGERS: No, not anymore. This is my take on it. I think Gibbs can be their Kamara. And if that's the case, that's not like-- the role and the usage is all there for Gibbs to be the Lions version of Kamara.
And if that's the case, then I don't care about David Montgomery in the slot.
JAY CROUCHER: I think the thing is too you have to-- it's a kind of corollary to following the money. Like, you have to follow the organizational incentives. And the fact that they reached for Gibbs so badly-- like, he was a coin flip to go in the first round. And they took him as early as they did.
The fact that they spent that much capital, I think they have to play him. They have to give him the chance to file.
MATTHEW BERRY: Right, right. They spent that much capital on him when they had D'Andre Swift on the roster.
JAY CROUCHER: Yes.
MATTHEW BERRY: That's my point. Again, now it's all cleared out and everything like that. And they were-- I mean, like, they didn't get much for Swift.
JAY CROUCHER: No.
MATTHEW BERRY: They got like a five and a seven, I think.
CONNOR ROGERS: I think it's a future long-term four or a five--
MATTHEW BERRY: Maybe that's--
CONNOR ROGERS: Down the road.
MATTHEW BERRY: They got a seven back, and they got like-- I mean, it's not much.
CONNOR ROGERS: No, no, no, no, no, no.
MATTHEW BERRY: --or something like that.
CONNOR ROGERS: It was definitely waving the white flag that we are done with this guy.
JAY CROUCHER: Did you see the reaction as well from Dan Campbell and the team when they drafted Gibbs? It was like they drafted the present-day Patrick Mahomes.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yes, yes. Yeah. They won the draft is the reaction.
JAY CROUCHER: Yes.
MATTHEW BERRY: Anyway.
JAY CROUCHER: [INAUDIBLE]
MATTHEW BERRY: Anyway. Gibbs over Montgomery, and he's a love for me.
CONNOR ROGERS: A couple more running backs here. Devon Achane from your Texas A&M squad, of course.
MATTHEW BERRY: Gig 'em, Aggs.
CONNOR ROGERS: Miami loves speed, and they found it in the draft with Achane, Miles Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, Isaiah Pacheco. The Chiefs not really that active. I mean, McKinnon's still out there, so we'll see.
MATTHEW BERRY: So I think they resigned McKinnon.
CONNOR ROGERS: OK.
MATTHEW BERRY: But you know what I mean? Right now, it's really Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And they've sort of made their-- they've made how they feel about CEH pretty clear.
Sanders and Hubbard is the same as we've talked about with Pollard or Conner. Just the Panthers didn't add anybody.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yep.
MATTHEW BERRY: And so that's a team that's likely going to run a lot to try to take some pressure off of Bryce Young. And the Devon Achane, just absolutely love the player. Love the speed.
He'll be third on the depth chart behind Mostert and Jeff Wilson Junior, but both sides injury-prone. They're hurt all the time. Mike McDaniel went on to get them.
Achane is a great fit for the kind of offense McDaniel runs. Love, love, love Devon Achane.
CONNOR ROGERS: All right. Time to get into the hate list here, a couple of running backs that things did not go their way through the NFL draft. And this was a little bit of a surprise for us guys. The Seattle Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet on day two of the draft.
We obviously love Kenneth Walker. Charbonnet was my RB 3 in this draft.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah.
CONNOR ROGERS: For Seattle, if you're a Seattle fan, this is awesome. Now you have two great running backs. If you like these guys in fantasy, especially Kenneth Walker, whether he's on your dynasty roster, or a keeper, or you just wanted to draft him early, this is undoubtedly going to significantly eat into his workload.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. I mean, look. We saw the big plays for Walker. We saw the explosive plays. We saw the wow plays, right?
But what the other thing is is, like, here's a guy that played on less than 30-- I'm talking about Walker now. He played on less than 30% on third downs last year. They weren't really using him as a pass catcher.
He had 33 carries where he was tackled for a loss. That's third most among all running backs. This is the guy who didn't play for the first five weeks of the season, basically.
He had seven games last year where he averaged under 4 yards per carry. A lot of the yards per carry stuff was kind of know buoyed, I guess, however you want to say it, but propped up by these long runs that sort of skewed that. And so he wasn't super efficient.
Again, he also got a little bit banged up. It was his rookie year. I'm still a big Ken Walker fan, but I could see Seattle sitting here saying, like, hey, we like him, but we're not 100% sure.
And oh, by the way, whether it was Rachaad Penny, whether it was Chris Carson, whether it was even Ken Walker a little bit last year in terms of being banged up, they've dealt with running back injuries quite a bit. And you know how much Pete Carroll likes to run the ball. So depth makes sense.
Charbonnet is a really talented player. You can't fault Seattle for saying, hey, we're going to add to this offense. I think if you are a dynasty manager of Geno Smith, you're thrilled with what the Seahawks did. I think if you're a Seahawks fan, you should be thrilled.
But I think if you're a dynasty manager of Ken Walker, like-- I don't know-- this guy is, you're like, man, come on.
JAY CROUCHER: Ken Walker is a weird one because the advanced numbers don't really love him because he did have that dependence just breaking 60-odd runs for fun.
MATTHEW BERRY: Right.
JAY CROUCHER: Didn't he score one touchdown in his last six games of the season as well? So that dried up. He's constantly injured. He started the season injured. He ended the season kind of injured.
He's playing through an ankle, but just watching him, he just he runs so angry. He was incredible at the end of the season. He won them that game against the Rams to basically get them into the playoffs.
Like, the talent is there, but now you just worry. Also with the passing game, they improved their passing game too. And Geno's a legit quarterback. So it just feels like there's just too many guys.
I think everyone on Seattle lost.
MATTHEW BERRY: Right. And by the way-- and Jay, you and I talked. Just going back to Walker for a second, you and I and Michael Smith talked about Walker on "Fantasy Football Pregame" on week four or something like that, while Penny was still the starter. He was still healthy and the starter.
We were just talking about sneaky and our sneaky pickups, like grab a guy and stash him. And I mentioned Ken Walker and said that I had heard from a source in Seattle that told me they're like, this kid can be LaDainian Tomlinson.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: Like, that's who he reminds us of. Again, not saying he's going to be one of the greatest running backs of all time. But just that's how high they were internally on him. So it's a little-- that was a year ago, so certainly grabbing Charbonnet was surprising. But in another situation, he'd be ranked higher, but Charbonnet, Kenneth Walker-- honestly, the entire Seattle offense is a hate because just more talented players means less of the ball to go around.
JAY CROUCHER: Yep.
CONNOR ROGERS: All right. Moving over to the Saints, Alvin Kamara makes the list here. The Saints signed Jamaal Williams. We know Jamaal Williams just feasts at the goal line. That's what he does, and then they drafted K'Andre Miller in the third round, a bigger running back that can run in between the tackles.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. Talk about Miller a little bit here.
CONNOR ROGERS: Miller's a good player. Third round surprised me a little bit. He's a bigger back. He's got good contact balance.
He's got good vision-- nothing splashy, nothing flashy. He's not going to be this home run hitting kind of guy. And taking him in the third round after signing Jamaal Williams signals two things to me-- one, they're bracing for a Kamara suspension-- duh, everybody knows that-- but two, when you look at this team, it feels like those guys are going to get the bulk of the actual carries, the running. And maybe Kamara is just being very pigeonholed into even more of a pass catching role than we've ever seen.
So this pick's really, really surprised me with the Saints.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. I mean, unless they just sort of think, you know what? Hey, we're just going to go-- I mean, by the way, they're remaking this offense right Derek Carr. I mean, you know, and so maybe they're just like, you know what? We want to set up play action for Carr to Olave, so we want guys that can go between the tackles.
And we're not going to try to do this stuff. I mean, remember this about Kamara-- in addition to the looming suspension, he's also been hurt significantly last couple of years. Last year, a target share of 18%. That was a career low.
They're not even using him in the passing game. They still have Taysom Hill there, you know, who's going to--
CONNOR ROGERS: It's going to be a thing. It's going to be a thing.
MATTHEW BERRY: It's going to be an annoying thing as well. And the last thing I'll say here is that they didn't use them this way in Detroit. But if you think back to Jamaal Williams in Green Bay, he's a really good pass catching running back.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: They use Swift in that role in Detroit, but it's not a skill that Jamaal Williams has forgotten. So there's a scenario where Miller is the between the tackles guy, and they use Williams, you know, and certainly in pass pro because he's more of a veteran. You know, Carl, I don't know. They just may be done with him, Alvin Kamara.
CONNOR ROGERS: That's what I think. I think this is the beginning of the end for Kamara in New Orleans.
JAY CROUCHER: And I think it's not just about the usage and the potential suspension. He just hasn't been good for two years.
MATTHEW BERRY: Right. Yeah.
[INTERPOSING VOICES]
JAY CROUCHER: --been banged up, but he just has-- like, he scored four touchdowns total last year. He had more than that on Christmas against the Vikings two years ago alone. So he just hasn't been the same guy, hasn't been as explosive. The receiving has just dried up. I mean, he hasn't topped 490 receiving yards the past two seasons, where you know he's up around 800 in his prime.
So just doesn't seem like the same guy and just doesn't look like he's going to be there.
MATTHEW BERRY: And Kamara-- yeah, so anyway. Kamara was already going to be on the hate list because of the suspension because of all those things. But then you add Miller with a third-round draft capital, a day two pick. You sort of think, yeah, this is not great, you know.
CONNOR ROGERS: To your point about Jamaal Williams, I mean, he's one of the best pass protecting backs in the NFL. And that is vital for Derek Carr. You have to protect Derek Carr for him to have success. And I think Carr is going to pound the table.
MATTHEW BERRY: There's a lot of things you have to do for Derek Carr for him to have success.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yes.
MATTHEW BERRY: But yes, certainly protection is a big one. Yeah.
CONNOR ROGERS: All right. Looking at the Eagles backfield, what a group this has become, guys. D'Andre Swift thrown into the mix, as we hinted at earlier. Rachaad Penny on that low-flyer deal, and Kenneth Gainwell, who they really, really like and had moments last season, especially in the playoffs. The Eagles three-headed monster is going to be pretty difficult to figure out.
JAY CROUCHER: Also Jalen Hurts.
MATTHEW BERRY: Right. And honestly, the truth is is probably none of them get the ball at the goal line. You've also got Boston Scott, you know--
CONNOR ROGERS: Of course, for the Giants games.
MATTHEW BERRY: 1,000%.
CONNOR ROGERS: They can unleash him.
MATTHEW BERRY: The concern on D'Andre-- like, all these guys, you're probably going to be stuck with one of them at the end of your draft. But ideally, you know, all them make my hate list because, to your point-- right? So I mean, they just don't throw to the running back.
No team in the NFL had a lower running back target share last year than the Philadelphia Eagles. So that's a real concern for Swift because that's where he basically made his fantasy bones, if you will, is as a pass catcher in Detroit. Obviously, you have the injury concerns with Swift and Penny. If anything were to happen to one of them, then certainly you'd see an uptick in value for the other one that's still healthy.
But the fact is is that over the last two seasons, Jalen Hurts has 23 rushing touchdowns. That is tied for the most-- tied for the second most, I should say, among all players in the NFL, not running backs. All players in the NFL tied for a second most.
So Hurts is always a threat to take it. In terms of passing game usage, you've got Smith. You've got AJ Brown. You've got Dallas Goedert. They don't throw to the running backs really, so now you've got Penny, Swift, Gainwell, maybe Scott.
Listen, and they're all home run hitters in their own way, especially Swift and Penny. So behind that offensive line, you can certainly see them having a 60-for-91 touchdown game. But it's going to be hard to predict when those guys are going to burst out for a big run.
If I have to pick an Eagles running back, give me D'Andre Swift over Penny and Gainwell. But all of them make the hate list. All of them lost value by this backfield becoming as crowded as it did.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah. And one of the first two weeks this coming season, one of these guys, Swift or Penny, is going to go off for 100 yards and two touchdowns. And you trade him immediately. You trade him the next day because it's just not going to last. I mean, just Hurts at the goal line just pillages so many of those touchdowns that it's just not going to be valued.
MATTHEW BERRY: And they're going to want-- listen. Even though Shane Steichen is in Indianapolis, they're going to keep the same offensive system. They're going to-- Sirianni is still-- Sirianni was a multiple running back guy in Indianapolis. He's been a multiple running back guy in Philadelphia to date.
I think he will continue to be so. Certainly, Swift, Penny, Gainwell-- like, I'm annoyed as a Commanders fan because the Eagles are going to be really good next year and really hard to defend. But they're also going to be really hard to predict for fantasy.
CONNOR ROGERS: Our last running back on the list, we gave a lot of love to Bijan Robinson for obvious reasons. But with that comes a little bit of disappointment now for the future of Tyler Allgeier here, Jay.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, which is a shame because Tyler Allgeier had quietly an awesome season.
CONNOR ROGERS: A great find.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
CONNOR ROGERS: Great fifth-round find.
JAY CROUCHER: He was fantastic, and now he's going to be a fantastic backup running back. And I don't think that he's someone that you're going to be drafting expecting to start him unless Bijan goes down. I don't think it's going to be a situation where it's a rotation like Bijan Robinson is not Caleb Huntley. Like, he's going to-- Allgeier is going to be marginalized and expect to be someone that you carry as insurance if Bijan goes down. And that's about it.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. I would agree with that. I just want to take this moment to talk about Tyler Allgeier for this reason. And so I wrote a love/hate column for nbcsportsedge.com, [INAUDIBLE]. It's up right now on the site. It's free. Go check it out.
But one of the points that I made is, again, value changes all the time. Think about a year ago from the Atlanta Falcons, and we were all excited. Wow. Drake London, eighth pick overall, going to Atlanta. Massive target share incoming for Drake London.
We love the player. We love the opportunity, and no one was talking about their fifth-round pick, Tyler Allgeier.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: Drake London, obviously a real disappointment for fantasy. They just never threw the ball. You know? And Tyler Allgeier was a 1,000-yard rusher. So my point is that we can sit here and talk all we want about draft capital and opportunity. But ultimately just remember at some point coaches take over and not always rational coaching.
JAY CROUCHER: Absolutely.
