Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown among the five Pacers X-factors for 2023-24

INDIANAPOLIS -- A week before training camp opened, Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan would concede only that two players could be penciled in as starters -- point guard Tyrese Haliburton and center Myles Turner. So in a sense, Haliburton and Turner are the Pacers' two most important players and much of the 2023-24 squad's destiny will be determined by how far those two carry Indiana.

But they can also be considered constants. By contrast, they are surrounded by players who can be considered more variable. They are the X-factors who could lead the Pacers to unexpected heights if they hit their personal ceilings but could also hamstring them if they fail. If each reaches their potential, it's possible to imagine the Pacers reaching the playoffs without having to deal with the play-in round. If they fail, it's equally possible to imagine the Pacers missing the postseason entirely for the third straight year.

Here are the five most critical to making the Pacers not just one of the most entertaining teams in the Eastern Conference, but one of the best.

Bennedict Mathurin, wing

The Pacers don't have a problem admitting that they need a second All-Star caliber player to pair with Haliburton, having two such players is the bare minimum cost of real contention. All 10 teams who finished ahead of the Pacers in the Eastern Conference last season had at least two players on the roster who have been All-Stars. There's even more star power at the top of the East now that Damian Lillard has been traded to the Bucks to join Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, which in turn led the Celtics to add Jrue Holiday to a squad that already included Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis.

The Pacers would prefer to develop that second All-Star from within rather than having to acquire him through the draft or free agency. Second-year wing Bennedict Mathurin clearly represents the franchise's best current hope to become that player. They took him No. 6 overall in the 2022 draft -- the highest pick the Pacers have had in a draft since they took Rik Smits No. 2 in 1988 -- and he more than earned the investment. He became the first Pacers rookie since Smits to be named first-team All-Rookie, he finished second among all rookies in scoring to Orlando's Paolo Banchero with 16.7 points per game and his 1,302 total points gave him the third-highest all-time total for a Pacers rookie behind Clark Kellogg's 1,625 in 1982-83 and Chuck Person's 1,541 in 1986-87.

But Year 2 for Mathurin will be challenging in ways that Year 1 will not. For one thing, it appears that he will start this year after operating as the sixth man for most of last season. That's an adjustment because he was by far the top scorer in last year's second unit and he had lots of opportunities to get the ball in isolation and attack the rim off the bounce, which is his most effective skill. Playing in the first unit means he'll be working more with Haliburton and will have to operate in a frame work that is more focused on running in transition and sharing the ball to create equal opportunity for everyone. He's shown a willingness to pass so far, but he's also had some struggles turning the ball over.

Haliburton's offensive style creates a lot of opportunities for open shots and the Pacers will need Mathurin to hit more of those. He was iffy as a 3-point shooter last year, finishing 32.3% from beyond the arc. They are also going to need a lot more from him as a defender.

Mathurin's lithe 6-6, 210-pound frame is prototypical for a wing defender and Mathurin has been adamant about wanting to be a great two-way player, but he's admittedly struggled to grasp all the necessary concepts of playing NBA defense. The Pacers, however, will have little choice but to throw him in the fire. Free agent signee Bruce Brown will take on one of those assignments in the first unit, but Mathurin might be the guy who has to guard the second.

That could mean guarding people like Lillard or Antetokounmpo, Boston's Jaylen Brown, Cleveland's Darius Garland, Miami's Tyler Herro, New York's R.J. Barrett and Atlanta's Dejounte Murray in the East. And out West, it could mean guarding Phoenix's Devin Booker or Brad Beal, Golden State's Klay Thompson, Memphis' Desmond Bane or the Clippers' Paul George.

"Benn Mathurin last night showed some real growth on the defensive end," Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said Saturday after the Pacers' preseason win over the Cavaliers. "He really took the fight on some possessions and showed he has the ability to sustain. I'd love for him to enter that mix. I talked to him the day before practice about his growth defensively and he has to continue to work hard to sustain it. He's a guy who's continually talked about wanting those challenges. That's exciting."

Bruce Brown, guard

The Pacers don't necessarily need Brown to play well enough to justify being their highest paid player this season at $22 million before Haliburton's extension kicks in next year. They needed somebody to take that money or they would have had a hard time meeting the NBA's salary floor and avoiding the new penalties that come with that in the newly signed collective bargaining agreement. Even with the arguable overpay, the Pacers still have the lowest paid roster in the NBA, entering the season with a league-high $3.2 million in cap room.

They do, however, need both production and leadership from Brown, who went places none of his teammates have been last season when he helped the Nuggets to the NBA title. He came off the bench in the playoff run and had to take on some very difficult defensive assignments when he did, but having to take on the toughest perimeter assignment every night from the jump is a different assignment. He's proven he can score in the past, and that he can hit outside shots, but if the Pacers are taking Buddy Hield out of the first unit they could really use all of the starters to take advantage of the attention Haliburton draws and knock down shots. Brown shot 35.8% from 3-point range and 40.4% the year before that, but he shot 28.8% from 3 in 2020-21. Consistent shooting from him will be necessary.

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Obi Toppin, forward

After Toppin spent the first three years of his career stuck behind Julius Randle in New York, the Pacers can operate under the assumption that Toppin is in for the most productive season of his NBA career. As an outstanding rim runner and dunker, he's certain to get lots of points in transition. He's also an effective screen-and-roll option and outside shooter. Simply put, he's bound to score a lot.

But the Pacers need to make sure he's not giving too much away on the other end. They don't expect him to be a premium defender, but it would go a long way if he's adequate, and can be used against athletic power forwards while still holding his own when he gets stuck in switches. The Pacers also want to make sure he's not too consumed with getting out on the break and stays focused on defensive rebounding. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle believes there's a lot more to him on the glass than his career 7.2 rebounds per 36 minutes.

Buddy Hield, guard

On some level, Hield is the most known quantity on the roster as he's proven over the last seven years to be one of the most prolific and consistent 3-point shooters in the NBA.

Still, he'll be playing on an expiring contract after extension negotiations broke down this summer, he might have concerns about being traded and it appears likely he'll be coming off the bench. Preseason games suggest that he'll still get some minutes with Haliburton, but he might be spending more time with Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell.

That requires Hield to get used to a lot of different styles, and it means he can't get sidetracked thinking about whether or not he might get traded. But the Pacers will certainly need production out of him if the rest of the first unit is struggling to shoot, and he's by far the most accomplished scorer on the second unit. Improved defense from Hield would also be helpful, but the Pacers are only expecting so much there.

Aaron Nesmith, forward

The Pacers trust Nesmith enough to bring defensive presence and do dirty work to extend him three years at $11 million per year and they'll be pleased if they simply get more of that. However, Nesmith clearly put time in the offseason into his ball-handling, ability to "play random," make reads, drive and finish which could make him a much more effective scorer. They could also use a more consistent outside shooter. He shot 36.6% from 3-point range last season, which isn't a bad number, but they could use him being a little more steady.

The Pacers are unlikely to ever regret paying the extension they did, as that's a bargain at today's prices, but it would be very much helpful for this Pacers team and the ones that come after if he makes that seem like a bargain.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Bennedict Mathurin leads Pacers x-factors for 2023-24 NBA season