Ben Goessling’s Vikings prediction: Who wins Sunday’s opener and why

Kickoff: Noon, Sunday

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium

TV/Radio: CBS Ch. 4, KFAN-FM 100.3, Sirius/XM: 230, 388

Line: Vikings by 5½

The Vikings on Sunday begin the regular season at home for the fifth time in six years, in a NFC matchup against the Buccaneers they'd like to win before a tough turnaround in Philadelphia on Thursday night. Their opener brings a revamped Tampa Bay team that will be playing its first game without Tom Brady, as Baker Mayfield starts at quarterback. It's not the same kind of test as Brady would have presented, but new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales, a longtime Seahawks assistant, could challenge the Vikings' new defense with some spread looks.

Here are the story lines and matchups worth watching Sunday afternoon.

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What will Brian Flores' defense look like? The Vikings kept their defensive plan fairly concealed during the preseason, though a few of the pressure packages they tested out against the Cardinals on Aug. 26 provided hints of what Flores had installed in training camp. Expect a heavier volume of blitzes than the Vikings have used in recent years, with pass rushers coming from a variety of places. In a loud environment at U.S. Bank Stadium, the Vikings believe they'll have a big advantage by creating chaos for Mayfield with their pressures.

Sign up for our Vikings Update newsletterVIKINGS OFFENSE VS. BUCCANEERS DEFENSE

Handling Vita Vea. The Vikings' 2022 season ended in the first round of the playoffs in large part because of Dexter Lawrence, the Giants defensive tackle who overwhelmed the middle of the Vikings' line on his way to seven pressures. The Vikings will have the same interior line they had last season, with Ezra Cleveland and Ed Ingram on either side of center Garrett Bradbury, and they'll start things off against Vea, the 347-pound Buccaneers nose tackle who's the type of player Bradbury has struggled with in his career. If first-round pick Calijah Kancey is recovered from a calf injury, the quickness that made him an All-America at Pitt could also give the Vikings plenty to think about.

How will the new run game look? Coach Kevin O'Connell has talked frequently about wanting a more efficient run game in 2023. The Vikings built their backfield around Alexander Mattison, their new No. 1 running back, while adding tight end Josh Oliver to provide another solid blocker and matchup consideration in heavy personnel groups. They could use fullback C.J. Ham more often as they look to give Kirk Cousins more manageable third-down situations this year. Against a player like Vea, the Vikings' ability to win on the line of scrimmage and possibly exploit matchups for Justin Jefferson will be tested. If they can keep Tampa Bay in its base defense, they could find Jefferson defended by a linebacker.

VIKINGS DEFENSE VS. BUCCANEERS OFFENSE

Pressuring Mayfield. The Vikings have made a point all week of calling for noise from fans. That's a common refrain from players and coaches before home games, but in the first game of the season, with a new quarterback playing against a defense he hasn't seen before, noise could be an especially big factor. Flores' system includes lots of non-verbal checks to adjust pressures based on what the defense is seeing, and the Vikings will bring pressure from enough different places to test Mayfield's command of protections, especially with veteran center Ryan Jensen out for the season.

Corners vs. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin: While the Vikings will look for ways to challenge Mayfield, they'll also rely on two corners who've started a combined two NFL games: Akayleb Evans and Mekhi Blackmon, who'll be on the field together plenty in nickel packages. Evans will play in the Vikings' base packages, as well, and he'll be tested by Mike Evans, the Buccaneers' physical receiver who's had at least 1,000 yards in each of his nine seasons. Canales could try to spread things out against the Vikings; that could create problems if the Bucs aren't ready to protect Mayfield out of empty backfields, but it will also mean the Vikings' young corners have to be ready to handle themselves.

INJURY REPORT

Vikings: OLB Marcus Davenport (ankle), questionable

Buccaneers: G Cody Mauch (back), questionable; DL Calijah Kancey (calf), questionable

Vikings stats | Roster, depth chartPREDICTION

If the Vikings' secondary plays cohesively against a talented Buccaneers receiver group and forces Mayfield to hold the ball, Flores' pressure packages have a good chance to get home and affect the game. The Vikings could be challenged, too, by a solid Tampa secondary that includes corners Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III, as well as safety Antoine Winfield Jr., the former Gopher who will play his first game in the city where his father finished his career. But with Jefferson, K.J. Osborn, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, the Vikings will have enough weapons to pull away, especially if Mayfield helps them with a couple turnovers.

Vikings 26, Buccaneers 17