MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the Bellator 275 main event between middleweight champion Gegard Mousasi and challenger Austin Vanderford.

Bellator 275 takes place Friday at 3Arena in Dublin. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.

Gegard Mousasi (48-7-2 MMA, 6-1 BMMA)

Gegard Mousasi

Staple info:

• Height: 6’2″ Age: 36 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″

• Last fight: TKO win over John Slater (Aug. 13, 2021)

• Camp: Team Jurojin (The Netherlands)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Bellator middleweight champion
+ Strikeforce and DREAM titles
+ Amateur boxing champion
+ Judo black belt
+ 28 knockout victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 31 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Excellent jab
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Excellent top pressure and transitions
^ Good strike and submission acumen
+ Crafty guard retentions and sweeps

Austin Vanderford (11-0 MMA, 5-0 BMMA)

Austin Vanderford

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74″

• Last fight: Decision win over Fabian Edwards(May 21, 2021)

• American Top Team (Florida)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ NAIA national champion wrestler
+ 2x state champion wrestler (Alaska)
+ Regional MMA title
+ 3 knockout victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking
^ Jabs, hooks and low kicks
+ Strong level-changing doubles
^ Good at turning corners
+ Solid positional grappler
^ Looks for strikes and submissions

Point of interest: Lead-hand awareness

Gegard Mousasi vs. John Salter, Bellator 264

The main event for Bellator 274 features a middleweight title fight between two men who like to use their lead hands.

Hailing from the striking-rich country of the Netherlands, [autotag]Gegard Mousasi[/autotag] carries many of the tropes and tools that one would stereotype with a striker from his area of the world.

Demonstrating an almost preternatural sense for space, Mousasi will typically opt to play or pressure just outside of a fully engaged range as he attempts to flash his jab and feint out his opponent’s attacks. If Mousasi can find a home for his jab early, then he typically does well dictating striking distances, attaching hard kicks to combos when feeling in stride.

Feinting and jabbing will also be important for drawing out the potential shots and counters from his opponent, [autotag]Austin Vanderford[/autotag].

Although Vanderford is clearly a wrestler by nature, the native of Alaska has made measurable strides since moving shop down to American Top Team in South Florida.

Moving less plodding than before, Vanderford stays a bit more fleet of foot with his fighting stance, showing more instincts to pressure. The 31-year-old has always had some heavy hooks to boot, but Vanderford now attaches them to a stinging jab that he has shown to really get behind.

Vanderford has also shown some hard leg kicks in past fights, as that could serve him nicely when considering Mousasi’s jab-heavy approach. That said, I suspect that Vanderford will need more feints and level-changing looks if he means to avoid getting countered on his offensive offerings.

Point of interest: Wrestler's wrath

Austin Vanderford, Bellator 225

Given Vanderford’s usual winning conditions, I suspect that the wrestling exchanges will play a big part in this fight’s outcome.

Vanderford, who is NAIA national champion, will definitely have the on-paper edge in the wrestling department.

Akin to his former stablemate, Chael Sonnen, Vanderford also wields a strong level-changing shot that he can hit both coming forward and off the back foot. However, Vanderford’s athleticism really shines through when forced to turn hard corners off of said double-legs, as he scores emphatic finishes most of the time.

Still, Mousasi is far from a slouch in this space despite what his resume and stats say.

After sustaining multiple setbacks to grapple-heavy game plans, Mousasi has done his best to shore up his opposition’s stymying efforts by both drawing out shots with jabs and developing some solid responses from the front-headlock position. But even if Mousasi’s able to get a beat on Vanderford’s entrances early, he’ll still need to be mindful of selling out for any chokes or transitions that could get him further stuck in the American’s brand of positional quicksand.

In recent years, we’ve seen Vanderford get less wild in transition and instead look to settle for positions. Utilizing solid shoulder pressure, Vanderford looks to be cooking his catches similarly to Glover Teixeira in regards to the double threat of his arm triangles and rear-naked chokes.

I believe that Mousasi can be an urgent enough worker from the bottom, but we’ve also seen him struggle against high-level grapplers who know how to use his beloved butterfly insteps against him, leveraging and manipulating his guard to open up opportunities for knee-slice passes (watch his fight with Rafael Lovato Jr. for that tutorial, folks).

Should Vanderford show the skills to both take down and advance on Mousasi, then the defending champ could be in for a long night.

That said, Vanderford, too, will need to be careful about giving away positions this weekend, as Mousasi can turn into a monster from topside. From passing and punishing from mount to snatching up necks that become available, the former Strikeforce champion can pretty much do it all.

Point of interest: odds and opinions

Gegard Mousasi and Scott Coker

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Mousasi -235 and Vanderford +190 via Tipico.

Despite this looking a lot like Mousasi’s last matchup on paper, I believe that Vaderford has a clearer path to victory than John Salter did due to his cardio.

Even though we’ve yet to see Vanderford goes five rounds inside of a Bellator cage, the 31-year-old challenger has won five-round affairs on the regional scene, both as a pro and amateur. Vanderford has also shown little signs of fatiguing in fairly high-paced fights, as he definitely has the ability to win by making this a long night.

Nevertheless, I still suspect that this will be a tough matchup for Vanderford at this point in his career.

Although Vanderford is young enough to surprise us with some fight-to-fight improvements in this spot, I don’t think it will be enough to keep him from either getting stung by Mousasi’s jab or being countered in the front-headlock position. I’ll take Mousasi to survive the early storms and steal Vanderford’s confidence by the second round – stopping him shortly after.

Prediction: Mousasi inside the distance

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