Bears season predictions: Game-by-game picks, analysis for 2023 campaign
Schrock's game-by-game predictions for Bears' 2023 season originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
The wait is finally over.
In a May tradition for NFL fans, the league released the full 2023 schedule Thursday night.
After an offseason spent retooling the roster, Justin Fields and the Bears enter a critical season for his development, and the trajectory of the Ryan Poles-Matt Eberflus rebuild.
The season starts with a bang as the new-look, rebuilding Packers visit Soldier Field. The schedule includes four primetime games, including a “Sunday Night Football” tilt in Los Angeles against the Chargers.
So, what does the 2023 season have in store for the Bears?
RELATED: Week 1 tilt vs. Packers gives Bears perfect chance to flip rivalry script
Here are our game-by-game predictions, with the caveat that opinions will change by the time September rolls around.
Week 1: vs. Green Bay Packers
After 15 years of being “owned” by Aaron Rodgers, the Bears get the privilege of welcoming Jordan Love to Soldier Field in his first game as QB1 in Green Bay.
It’s impossible to know what to expect from Love. He has looked like a fringe starter in the rare chances he has been given, but there’s a lot of optimism coming out of Green Bay about the Utah State product’s potential.
Week 1 is an excellent time for the Bears and Matt Eberflus’ improved defense to get Love. After three decades of being tormented by Brett Favre and Rodgers, I can’t imagine how damaged the Chicago psyche will be if Love rolls in and shreds the Bears in Week 1.
Let’s not go there. Tyrique Stevenson and Jaquan Brisker each pick off Love in a Week 1 win for the Bears.
Bears 23, Packers 17
Week 2: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There’s no more Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, but the Bucs are still talented. The question is: Can Baker Mayfield take care of the ball and get it to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin?
I might be the lone guy left on Baker Island, but I still think he’s a serviceable NFL starter. The Bucs' talent is too much for the Bears at Raymond James.
Bucs, 24, Bears 20
Week 3: at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs reportedly asked the NFL not to send the Bears game overseas. They got their wish and will host Justin Fields and Co. at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 3.
It’s an early measuring-stick game for the Bears, but the defending Super Bowl champions have too much firepower.
Patrick Mahomes carves up the Bears’ defense as the Chiefs roll to an easy win. Hope the BBQ is worth the trip.
Chiefs 34, Bears 17
Week 4: vs. Broncos
Sean Payton’s reclamation project rolls into town in Week 4. The Broncos are built to run the ball early and often. That could be bad news for a Bears’ defense that struggled mightily against the ground game in 2022.
Expect Russell Wilson to be better with Payton pulling the strings, but the Bears can’t afford a three-game losing streak this early in the season.
Justin Fields hits Cole Kmet for a go-ahead touchdown with 1:12 remaining to give the Bears a much-needed win.
Bears 20, Broncos 16
Week 5: at Washington Commanders (Thursday Night Football)
Amazon and the NFL watched last season’s 12-7 Thursday night barnburner at Soldier Field and thought … “Let’s run that back.”
Al Michael can’t be happy with this decision.
Last year, I penciled the Bears in for a Thursday night win over Carson Wentz and the Commanders. Wentz threw for just 99 yards, but the Bears couldn’t block Montez Sweat and Daron Payne and managed just seven points.
I’ll venture back out on the Commanders aren’t good limb. The Bears should be able to contain Sam Howell (I would hope), and Fields, armed with a better supporting cast, should be able to get the job done.
Expect a sloppy affair, though. It’s the Thursday night motto.
Bears 17, Commanders 10
Week 6: vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are in the middle of a planned “competitive rebuild” that saw them release wide receiver Adam Thielen and has them reportedly contemplating a split with running back Dalvin Cook.
But the Vikings still have Justin Jefferson and drafted USC wide receiver Jordan Addison in Round 1 to replace Thielen.
I expect Kirk Cousins to have a good season in a contract year. The Bears don’t have the pass rush needed to fluster Cousins. That lack of pressure should give Jefferson and Addison, two crisp route-runners, time to get open against the Bears’ secondary.
It’s a “whoever has the ball last wins” shootout at Soldier Field, with Cousins and Jefferson besting Fields and Moore by a nose.
Vikings 31, Bears 28
Week 7: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Native son Jimmy Garoppolo returns to Soldier Field as a member of the Silver and Black. The Raiders’ arsenal is loaded with Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Josh Jacobs. But the defense needs work, and Fields has the skill set to make them pay.
Fields gives the Bears the lead with a 5-yard touchdown run with five minutes remaining. Garoppolo marches the Raiders down the field, but his pass on third-and-7 to Adams sails high and is picked off by Eddie Jackson.
Bears 27, Raiders 23
Week 8: at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday Night Football)
The Chargers will once again be a trendy Super Bowl pick to start the season. After blowing a 27-point lead to the Jaguars, the Chargers will be out for blood in 2023.
Armed with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, Justin Herbert torches the Bears’ defense, and Fields turns the ball over two times in a disappointing effort in primetime.
Chargers 28, Bears 13
Week 9: at New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr gets a second lease on life in NOLA and has weapons in Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olave to help prove his point.
That’s too much for the Bears on the Bayou. Carr throws for 300 yards and three scores as the Bears finish their road trip 0-2.
Saints 30, Bears 17
Week 10: vs. Carolina Panthers (Thursday Night Football)
The Bears are one of the teams given two Thursday night games this season, and this one has “TNF” written all over it.
Call this one the “Do you have regrets?” bowl.
After doing their due diligence on the 2023 QB class, the Bears elected to stick with Fields and trade the No. 1 pick to the Carolina Panthers for wide receiver DJ Moore and a host of draft picks.
Now, the Bears get their first look at Young.
The Bears own the Panthers’ 2024 first-round pick, so a win here would serve two purposes.
Young has a solid outing, but Moore catches eight passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns as the Bears move to 2-0 on Thursday night.
Bears 23, Panthers 16
Week 11: at Detroit Lions
The Bears won’t face the NFC North favorites until Week 11.
The Lions put it on the Bears in Detroit last season. While the Bears put up more of a fight this time, it’s still not enough to knock off a Lions team that is further along in its rebuild.
David Montgomery and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs each find the end zone while Detroit’s defense sacks Fields four times at Ford Field.
Lions 24, Bears 16
Week 12: at Minnesota (Monday Night Football)
The Bears showed out on Monday night football last season, pummeling the New England Patriots in Foxboro.
It was their best game of the season and last win. It came in Week 7.
Fields and Co. once again put their best foot forward in primetime. Rookie receiver Tyler Scott opens the game with a 62-yard touchdown catch from Fields. But the Bears’ defense once again can’t contain Cousins and the Vikings’ passing attack as Minnesota once again sweeps the season series.
Vikings 27, Bears 17
Week 13: BYE
Week 14: vs. Detroit Lions
The Bears should have knocked off the Lions at Soldier Field last season, but a fourth-quarter meltdown that included a pick-six and a missed extra point saw the Bears fall 31-30.
Not this time.
Fields puts on a show with his arm (250 yards, two TDs) and legs (87 yards, TD), and the Bears’ defense turns the Lions over twice in an important win.
Bears 24, Lions 20
Week 15: at Cleveland Browns
Justin Fields’ first career start quickly turned into a nightmare two years ago in Cleveland. Fields was sacked nine times as then-head coach Matt Nagy failed to adjust the game plan to keep his rookie quarterback upright.
The Bears’ offensive line should be improved in 2023, but there are few units that can effectively stop Myles Garrett from wrecking a game. That and a talented secondary are a recipe for a long day for Fields and the Bears’ offense.
Nick Chubb runs for 165 yards and two scores, while Garrett notches 2.5 sacks in a convincing win for the Browns.
Browns 27, Bears 17
Week 16: vs. Cardinals
There’s a chance Kyler Murray will be healthy enough to play here, but will the Cardinals be in a position to risk it? Doubt it.
The Bears smother Colt McCoy and waltz to a comfortable late-season win.
Bears 24, Cardinals 10
Week 17: vs. Falcons
Last year, the Falcons were a team many circled as a win for the Bears. That will be the case again in 2023.
But the Falcons gave their defense a facelift this offseason and added another elite weapon in running back Bijan Robinson.
On a cold New Year’s Eve afternoon, Robinson pummels the Bears for 145 yards and two touchdowns, and Younghoe Kook drills a 37-yard game-winning field goal to send the Falcons home happy.
Falcons 20, Bears 17
Week 18: at Green Bay Packers
I’m going to pencil this game into the Week 18 12 p.m. “no playoff implications” window.
Last season, the Bears used the Week 2 and Week 13 games against the Packers to gauge Fields’ progress.
This time, it’s the Packers who will use the rivalry as a measuring stick for their young quarterback.
Love plays fine in the season finale, but Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon carry the Packers to a season-closing win on the frozen tundra.
Packers 23, Bears 16
Record prediction: 7-10
The Bears get a soft start to the season with games against Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Howell in three of their first five. They have to take advantage of that before a tough seven-game stretch in the middle of the year bookended by two games against the Vikings.
If the Bears can come out of their Week 13 bye at 5-7 or 6-6, they'll have a shot to take advantage of a favorable finish to the schedule and push for a wild-card berth. But that will require them to stay healthy, execute, and take care of business in the early part of the season.
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