Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Our MLS prediction, preview is in
If Austin FC is to produce its first three-game winning streak since July 2022, it will come thanks to its most impressive win in a long time.
The Verde & Black will head to one of the toughest places to play in the MLS on Sunday when they face St. Louis City SC and its rabid fans at CityPark for a rare afternoon game.
It’s the second meeting of the season between the clubs, after a 2-2 draw at Q2 Stadium on March 9.
Here's what you need to know about the match as Austin FC (2-2-3, nine points) looks to follow up its wins over Dallas and San Jose with another three points:
Goals aplenty?
Like a week ago against San Jose when Austin FC won 4-3 on Sebastián Driussi’s dramatic stoppage-time goal in the game’s final seconds, this is a contest that should feature a lot of scoring and fast-paced play.
In their three previous meetings, Austin FC and St. Louis have never combined for fewer than four goals, and the matchup at CityPark a year ago produced nine in a 6-3 St. Louis win.
More: Austin FC defender Brendan Hines-Ike has hit the ground running for El Tree
Despite its scoreless draw vs. Dallas last week, St. Louis usually plays a superaggressive offensive style at home.
At times in the game at Q2 Stadium a month ago, St. Louis played a slightly conservative formation, but don’t expect to see much of that Sunday.
Attacking players João Klauss and Aziel Jackson will want to push things as much as possible, and that will allow chances for Driussi, forward Diego Rubio and winger Jáder Obrian to counter for Austin FC.
Unlike a week ago, the Verde & Black probably won’t dominate possession.
St. Louis won’t sit back like San Jose and hope for strictly counterattacks. It will use a combination of possession with a full-out offensive assault of players flying down the field at any given chance.
And don't be fooled by St. Louis' slow start resultswise to the season. It's still similar to the club that won the Western Conference a year ago and scored 62 goals.
For fans, this should be a highly entertaining contest to watch.
Defensive woes
Austin FC will have to be better on defense than it was against San Jose.
Poor clearances, being out of position, leaving players unmarked and not adjusting to counterattacks well all played a part in the Earthquakes’ three goals.
Center back Brendan Hines-Ike has been a positive addition to the club, but last week certainly wasn’t the best game of his career.
In his weekly meeting with the media, Austin FC coach Josh Wolff said some of the defensive play was “concerning,” and that there was an emphasis in practice this week on being better against transition and counters.
He also said the team’s midfielders have to be smarter with the ball at certain points, and that the club’s lineup tends to favor offense, which at times produces risk.
Still, don’t be surprised if Guilherme Biro starts at left back, with Jon Gallagher moving to right back.
Biro, one of the club’s main offseason acquisitions, was good coming off the bench vs. San Jose and scored for the second time with Austin FC. He should be fit enough to play 60 minutes, and the club is better off with Hector Jiménez coming in as a second-half substitute.
Matt Hedges starting in place of Hines-Ike should also be a strong consideration.
Austin FC is still short-handed on the backline, but if it isn’t solid in this match, we could see the scoreline close to what it was in last season’s matchup at CityPark.
Obrian excellent
Obrian continued to show vs. San Jose that he might be a brilliant offseason pickup.
He scored once, had another goal barely wiped off by video review and was generally very good on the right wing.
He also forms a triple threat on offense with Driussi and Rubio.
Essentially discarded by Dallas in November, he was selected by Austin FC with the first overall pick of the MLS reentry draft.
And though we won’t know his salary until the MLS Players Association has its annual salary release next month, it’s unlikely he’s making more than $350,000.
The Verde & Black didn’t do much this offseason, but the additions of Obrian, Biro and Hines-Ike all seem to be solid moves.
Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC prediction
St. Louis City SC 3, Austin FC 2: This is a match that before the season would have been penciled in as a loss. Despite Austin FC’s two straight wins and St. Louis having only one victory in seven games, nothing has changed on that front. Winning on the road is difficult, and St. Louis has one of the best home atmospheres in the MLS. If the Verde & Black can get out with a draw, that should be considered a success.
Sunday’s match
Austin FC (2-2-3, nine points) at St. Louis City SC (1-1-5, eight points), 3:45 p.m., CityPark, Fox, 97.5, 104.3 (Spanish)
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Our MLS prediction, preview is in
