Can Auburn reach the Final Four? Here are our 2024 March Madness bracket predictions
NASHVILLE — Auburn basketball is heading to March Madness as an SEC Tournament champion.
The Tigers have done this once before under coach Bruce Pearl, and Auburn used its built-up momentum that season to make a run to the 2019 Final Four. Can Auburn do it again with a completely different roster? It'll be tough, but perhaps not as difficult as the four-game gauntlet of New Mexico State, Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky the Tigers powered through five years ago.
It all starts in the Round of 64 against No. 13 Yale. No. 4 Auburn, with a win over the Bulldogs, will then meet the winner of a contest between No. 5 San Diego State and No. 13 UAB.
No. 1 UConn looms over the East Region, but the Tigers would have to get to the Sweet 16 before they even begin to start worrying about the Huskies.
Here are reasons why Auburn will reach the Final Four, reasons why it won't and our prediction for how far the Tigers will ultimately go in the NCAA Tournament:
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Why Auburn basketball can reach the Final Four
Depth
The Tigers are one the deepest teams in the country with nine players averaging more than 15 minutes per game. The only member of the regular rotation who averages less than that is Chris Moore, and even he plays 13.8.
That depth should serve Auburn well as the season wears on and opposing stars play upwards of 35 minutes per game; All-SEC center Johni Broome averages a team-high 24.7 minutes.
Increased shooting marks
Auburn has seemed to have found its shooting stroke at the right time.
It's been eight games since the Tigers have shot below 30% from deep, and they're shooting 42.3% over that stretch. Defense is a prerequisite in March — Auburn checks that box, and has all season — but shooting is what separates the contenders from the pretenders.
Why Auburn basketball can't reach the Final Four
Trouble on the glass
Mississippi State dominated the rebounding battle in the first half of its SEC Tournament bout with Auburn on Friday. Those shortcomings nearly cost the Tigers — the game was tied at halftime as the Bulldogs hunted for an upset — before Auburn bowed up and rebounded MSU by four in the second half.
But those concerns remain against teams that have big and physical players in the front court.
Lengthy guard play
Auburn's young point guards — Aden Holloway and Tre Donaldson — have been solid all season. The one thing that seems to trip them up, however, is lengthy opposing guards who apply pressure and disrupt the Tigers getting into their offense.
Expect other teams to know that.
Auburn basketball prediction for March Madness: Projecting how far the Tigers will go
Auburn should breeze past Yale in the first round.
Assuming San Diego State also handles its business against UAB, it'll be a matchup of two top-25 teams between the Tigers and Aztecs, per KenPom's rankings. Auburn, which enters March Madness undefeated in non-Quadrant I games, has done an impeccable job taking care of business versus similar or inferior foes. The path is there to the Sweet 16.
But then comes UConn. The meeting with the Huskies would come in Boston, too, and it would certainly be a hostile crowd against Auburn. That's where we see the run coming to an end for the Tigers.
Richard Silva is the Auburn athletics beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. He can be reached via email at rsilva@gannett.com or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @rich_silva18.
This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Auburn in Final Four in March Madness predictions 2024: Here's why
