Auburn football vs. Texas A&M: Our scouting report, score prediction for the SEC opener

AUBURN — Auburn football did what it had to do against three inferior opponents to begin coach Hugh Freeze's tenure on a high note, but now the real season starts against Texas A&M on Saturday.

The Tigers handled Samford in Week 3, but the talent gap between an FCS team such as the Bulldogs and an SEC team like the Aggies will be canyon sized. Heck, even the talent gap between Auburn (3-0) and Texas A&M (2-1) will be pretty big itself, and Freeze knows it.

“You’re playing the best recruits in the nation," Freeze said of the Aggies "... It’s a tall, tall challenge for us in Year 1 to stand toe-to-toe with A&M and Georgia next week and LSU the following week. It’s our goal to get there, but that’s what reality is. We’ve had about eight months to recruit half a class. These others have been stacking it."

Here's our scouting report and score prediction for the matchup on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, ESPN):

EUGENE ASANTE: ‘Not a place for prima donnas’: NFL pedigree behind success of Auburn linebacker

RUN GAME: Examining Auburn football's ground attack and how the Tigers can bounce back vs. Texas A&M

Watch for Weigman

If Auburn defensive coordinator Ron Roberts has his way, Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman will look like the guy who was limited to a 38.9% completion percentage and 121 yards in Jordan-Hare Stadium late last season.

But Weigman isn't that guy anymore, and the game won't be played on the Plains. From Year 1 to Year 2, the sophomore appears to have made a leap.

Weigman has completed 70.5% of his passes for 909 yards and eight touchdowns through the first three games of 2023, including a five-touchdown performance in A&M's season-opening win against New Mexico. Those five scores are the most an Aggie quarterback has thrown in a single, non-overtime game since Johnny Manziel in 2013.

Third-down defense

If the Aggies force a team into a third-down situation this season, it's more than likely to result in a punt.

Texas A&M has defended 34 third downs so far in 2023 and only allowed a conversion on seven occasions. That percentage (20.6%) ranks third in the nation, making it imperative for the Tigers to stay ahead of the chains.

But Auburn has been nearly as efficient defending those money downs, too. The Tigers have seen 41 attempts and allowed 10 conversions for a 24.4% clip, good for No. 4 in the country.

Big plays

Texas A&M averages 18.33 plays of 10 yards or more a game. That rate trails 12 other teams, and those programs have a combined record of 32-5 this season.

Hitting home runs and biting off big chunks of yardage is a huge part of the Aggies' offense, especially through the air. Texas A&M has had 24 passing plays of 15 yards or more this season, including eight against Miami in Week 2 and 10 against Louisiana-Monroe in Week 3.

"He's very good," Freeze said of newly-hired A&M offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. "Very good schematically, very good at scheming. And, obviously, he checks a lot of his runs based on the looks that you have. That makes it difficult. He's usually right. The thing that we've got to do a great job of is disguising things.

"You know, he's going to make you stop 12 personnel and spread sets and everything that makes it challenging. Then you combine the talent level he's coaching with his balance on offense — play-action, passes, runs, a quarterback that can extend it with his legs when he needs to — it's a very difficult task."

Score prediction

Texas A&M 38, Auburn 28: Both of these teams are a bit of a mystery so early in the season, so leaning toward the team with more talent is a safe bet. Auburn's defense does its best to hold firm, but the Aggies eventually hit for some big plays and ultimately defend Kyle Field from the visiting Tigers.

Richard Silva is the Auburn athletics beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. He can be reached via email at rsilva@gannett.com or on Twitter @rich_silva18.

This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Auburn football vs. Texas A&M: Scouting report, score prediction