Auburn checks in at No. 32 on ESPN’s Week 1 FPI Index
Last season could not have been much more of a disaster for the Auburn Tigers. The team finished 5-7 overall and 2-6 in the SEC, losing more games than they won for the second season in a row under head coach Bryan Harsin.
Still, there is reason to be optimistic as a Tigers fan this year with new head coach Hugh Freeze and his band of transfers leading the charge. ESPN seems to share that optimism, at least for now, as they ranked Auburn just outside of the top 25 teams in the nation according to their College Football Power Index (FPI).
The FPI ranks each college football team by a variety of factors; Strength of record, strength of schedule, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall efficiency.
Overall Ranking: No. 32
ESPN’s FPI ranked Auburn as the 42nd best team in the country at the end of 2022. This year, the Index has the Tigers opening up 10 spots higher, at 32nd overall and 11th in the SEC.
On the surface it’s easy to see why they would jump. The team has a new head coach, a new quarterback in Payton Throne, a handful of transfer receiving threats like Jaylin Shorter, and Shane Hooks, and three new offensive lineman.
Of course, none of the aforementioned players have played a meaningful snap in the orange and blue, so things are certain to change.
Strength of Record: N/A
If Auburn doesn’t have a positive number in the strength of record category after week one, they have a few more things to worry about in their FPI ranking.
The power index gives Auburn a 93.5% chance to defeat the UMass Minutemen and BetMGM has Auburn favored by 37.5 points.
Only two teams have managed to get upset when favored by 37 or more over the last 25 years; the USC Trojans (-40.5 vs. Stanford) in 2007, and the UNLV Rebels (-45.5 vs. Howard) in 2017.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: No. 2
If there is one thing the Auburn athletic department is really good at, it’s making an impossibly difficult football schedule.
A tough schedule is impossible to avoid in the SEC, but Auburn’s is continuously extra hard due to the fact they have to play Georgia and Alabama every year. The good news for Auburn? They get to host the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide this season.
Overall Efficiency: N/A
The Auburn Tigers had a whole lot of issues in 2022, and their final FPI efficiency ranking indicates that.
Auburn finished 2022 ranked 60th in Overall efficiency according to the FPI index. To truly emphasize how bad that is, three teams from the mighty Sunbelt; South Alabama, Troy, and James Madison (who was playing in the FBS for the first time in program history) all finished with an overall efficiency in the above 60.
Offensive Efficiency: N/A
Auburn’s offense was a train wreck in 2022.
The team mustered 24.8 PPG amid inconsistent quarterback play and an offensive line that opened up more holes behind the line of scrimmage than it did in front of it.
This led Hugh Freeze to completely overhaul the unit through the transfer portal over the offseason, adding proven contributors like Peyton Thorne, Shane Hooks, Avery Jones to the offense.
Even if it takes some times for things to click, this offense should be much better than it was a year ago.
Defensive Efficiency: N/A
The Tigers strength as a team last year was their defense. The Tigers finished 2022 ranked 39 in the FPI’s defensive efficiency.
There is no reason to believe this year’s defense can’t replicate the same kind of production.
They should get a nice head start in the FPI rankings, as their first test will against a UMass team that averaged just 12.5 PPG in 2022.
