Do the Arizona Cardinals stand a chance against the San Francisco 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers (10-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
Time/site: 2:05 p.m., State Farm Stadium
TV: CBS. Radio: 98.7 FM, 106.7 FM.
Last time they played: The 49ers broke open a close game with two fourth-quarter touchdowns on their way to a 35-16 victory in Santa Clara on Oct. 1. Running back Christian McCaffrey scored a career-high four touchdowns as San Francisco won its 14th straight regular-season game. McCaffrey had 177 total scrimmage yards and scored on three runs and one catch to help the 49ers start 4-0. He also broke Jerry Rice’s franchise record by scoring a touchdown in his 13th straight game, including the playoffs. Quarterback Brock Purdy was 20 of 21 for 285 yards and one touchdown pass. He also ran for a touchdown.
Series history: This is the 65th meeting in a series that dates back to 1951 with the 49ers holding a 35-29-0 edge overall. San Francisco has won the past three meetings by a 111-39 margin. The Cardinals won eight straight from 2015 to 2018. Arizona has won six of the past nine meetings in games played at State Farm Stadium.
49ers-Cardinals coaching matchup
Arizona: Jonathan Gannon’s club is coming off its first road victory of the season, a 24-10 win at Pittsburgh in Week 14. He has his starting quarterback, Kyler Murray, back in the fold and Murray, who missed each of the past three games against the 49ers, is 2-1 in his last three starts against San Francisco.
San Francisco: Kyle Shanahan is in his seventh season as head coach of the 49ers and is 62-49-0 in the regular season. His club is coming off a 28-16 victory over the Seahawks and have won five straight games. San Francisco has won 12 straight games against NFC West rivals dating back to 2021. The Cardinals were the last division foe to beat the 49ers.
Storyline: The 49ers already clinched a playoff spot and presently hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC, something they desperately want to keep. They are 12½-point favorites on Sunday but won’t be taking the Cardinals lightly now that Murray is operating the offense. Arizona is sure to have its hands full, however, trying to contend with a complex, multi-motion Shanahan offense fueled by McCaffrey, Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. San Francisco’s defense, meanwhile, ranks first in points allowed (15.8 per game) and No. 1 against the run (78.3). A loss would leave the Cardinals just two losses shy of tying the franchise record (13), but it would help their draft-pick status.
Arizona will win if …
The running game surprises: The Cardinals are averaging 123.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks ninth-best in the league, but it may have to be even better than that to knock off the 49ers and their suffocating rush defense. That means giving James Conner a healthy dose of carries – 25 if they can do it – and getting some explosive runs by Murray as well.
The tackling is stout, and the pass rush gets to Purdy: The last time these teams met, Arizona couldn’t tackle McCaffrey and he crushed them nearly single-handedly. The Cardinals need to gang tackle him, wrap him up, and don’t let him get easy extra yards. Harassing Purdy will also be paramount. The Cardinals can’t let him sit in the pocket and pick them apart. They need to apply a steady rush, bring some occasional blitzes, and get in his face.
The Cardinals protect the football: San Francisco has 23 takeaways, tied for second-most in the league behind only Denver (24). Murray can’t throw interceptions and ball carriers can’t afford to fumble. This is a game, however, that the Cardinals can lose even if they win the turnover battle.
San Francisco will win if …
The routine explosive plays on offense continue: The 49ers have a knack for stockpiling big plays of 20 or more yards and they come with frequency from start to finish. It can be nearly anyone among their skill players who can wreck a game for an opponent.
The 49ers can keep Murray in the pocket: Murray can thrive in a stable, protected pocket, but when he moves around to buy some time or elude a defender is when he can also be at his best. San Francisco will try to seal the edge to prevent Murray from hurting them on the outside with either a scramble or a deep ball down the field.
Pass catchers are allowed to get open under the coverage: The 49ers love to exploit the middle of the field and when a receiver, tight end or running back catches a pass in the open field, they usually make teams pay for the lack of accountability. The more chances this offense gets to attack the middle of the field, the more big plays will come out of it.
They said it
“I don’t know if it’s that. They’re a unit. The strength of them is the unit. We talked about it today, they’re very physical, they’re violent, they play for 60 minutes, and they bring it for 60 minutes. There are no lulls in effort and hitting and I truthfully think that it’s actually kind of cool to see and watch that they’re about the team, man. They don’t care who gets touches, who scores, who has a big game. They just want to win and that’s pretty cool to see. That’s why they’re where they’re at right now. They’re unselfish and when they get their chances, they make plays. I don’t know if there’s one key guy. I think they’re all key guys. The strength is the unit.” – Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon when asked if McCaffrey is the key to opening up deep pass for the 49ers.
“He’s another mobile quarterback and he’s probably as good as it gets. He’s just a one-of-one type of athlete. Plays you should have him bottled up, he’ll score, he’ll get the first down. He can play quarterback and sit in the pocket for a guy who’s not as tall. Their whole team is buying into what they’re doing.” – 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa on Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.
“I think just having him back in general. Whoever’s out there, it’s my job to make it work. I’m confident in everybody who’s out there, but if Mike is back—it’s going to be our second game together if he is out there. For me, I think it’s important for me to be able to build a rapport with him because he’s a great player. I think he’ll be here for a while. I love his mental, his makeup and how he sees the game, so I’m really excited to be out there with him when he is able to get back.” Murray on rookie receiver Michael Wilson’s potential return to the lineup and if it’s important to have his 6-2 size on the field.
By the numbers
1 – Sack by Nick Bosa in five career games against Kyler Murray.
2 – 99-yard drives that cultivated with touchdowns this season by the Cardinals. One came against the 49ers in Week 4 and the other two weeks ago against the Steelers.
6 – Games this season in which the Cardinals didn’t have a turnover. That’s tied with the Cowboys, Texans and 49ers for the most such games in the NFL this season.
31 – Games missed by Cardinals’ defensive linemen this season due to injuries. That’s half of the total games missed by Cardinals players on defense overall (61).
50.1 – Average yards per punt by the Cardinals’ Blake Gillikin, which ranks fourth in the league.
66 – Yards gained before contact by Christian McCaffrey on the first play of the 49ers’ game last week against the Seahawks. He was tackled just short of the goal line.
91 – Consecutive pass attempts without an interception by Kyler Murray.
126 – Receiving yards last week by 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
258 – Total minutes (four hours, 18 minutes) that elapsed during the Cardinals-Steelers game due to a pair of long weather delays. It was the longest Cardinals’ game in the Super Bowl era and the longest in the NFL since Week 1 of 2018.
Who will win and why
49ers 27, Cardinals 20: Considering they only trailed by five points heading into the fourth quarter the last time they played the 49ers, on the road, too, there’s no denying the Cardinals have a chance to pull an upset. Will they, is a different story. If they can keep it close, there’s always a possibility. You just get the feeling if San Francisco pulls ahead early with a couple get-rich-quick touchdowns, it could have a demoralizing effect on the Cardinals, which could make it very difficult to earn a comeback win.
Reach McManaman at bob.mcmanaman@arizonarepublic. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter: @azbobbymac and listen to him live every Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. on Roc and Manuch on Fox Sports 910-AM.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Scouting the Cardinals-49ers game: Analysis, key stats, who will win
