Arace: Columbus Crew to face their first (and last?) elimination game of MLS playoffs
Major League Soccer’s new playoff format features best-of-three series, with tie games going directly to kicks, in the first round. By definition, then, every Game 2 is a must-win for one team or the other and every Game 3 is a must-win for both.
“There’s nothing like a Game 3” doesn’t have quite the same ring to it as “There’s nothing like a Game 7,” but here we are, nearing the end of the first round – and it has been grand fun, not to mention excellent television. Those who prefer two-legged, aggregate score series can whine in accented English all they want. There’s nothing like a Game 3.
Sunday night, the Crew will play what may be their last home game of the season. It’s a winner-take-all, Game 3 against Atlanta United at the new Crew Stadium. Kickoff is at 7 p.m.
One can pardon those Crew fans who thought that the road to the conference semifinals was already paved after a pristine 2-0 victory over Atlanta in Game 1. One can understand why some Crew fans came to see only doom after Atlanta bounced back with a dominating 4-2 victory on the petroleum-based fake grass at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Game 2. Atlanta midfielder Thiago Almada, who missed Game 1, and striker Giorgos Giakoumakis dissected the Crew’s back line, and Atlanta finished its chances with clinical precision, to force a Game 3.
There is a tendency to think that, after winning a home game in convincing fashion Atlanta has all the momentum. Alas, the world of sports is filled with blowout victories that are followed by ignominious losses. One can even find a soccer example, a local one: In a best-of-three conference final against D.C. United in 1999, the Crew won Game 2 by a 5-2 score and then got blasted into the offseason with a 4-0 loss in Game 3 at RFK Stadium in Washington.
There is also a notion that the Crew do not manage late-game situations well, a notion that is based on some bona fide late-game lapses – a 4-3 loss at Orlando Sept. 16 and a 1-1 tie at Atlanta Oct. 7, to name two. The Crew committed some less-than-cerebral fouls and suffered some critical breakdowns, especially in their set-piece defense. These mistakes have fed into the soccer psychology which says that if you can’t button down a late lead, you can’t win in a knockout game.
Crew coach Wilfried Nancy doesn’t think like that. He plays his system. He asks his players to be brave on the ball in order to draw defenders. He requires them to pass out of pressure to break down defenses. The first aim is to possess. The ultimate aim is to score.
They will not, and should not, change.
Here’s the way veteran defender Josh Williams, 35, who is winding down his long Crew career as a reserve defender, puts it:
“You can say, ‘I want to play this way,’ but few are able to teach people to play that way, and teach people to have the (intestinal fortitude) in the 95th minute. Not only us in the past, but you look around the league and a lot of points are lost in the last few minutes of games, because you get tense. So, his whole thing is, play the whole game how we want to play. Show everybody we can play this way, that we believe in what we are doing. He instills this in us, and his message doesn’t change.”
According to Eliot McKinley, a forever Crew fan and longtime contributor to American Soccer Analysis, in terms of the difference in expected goals (xG), the Crew's most efficient games were early-season games against Orlando − a 2-2 draw May 13 − and Real Salt Lake − a 4-0 victory on April Fool’s Day. Both games were at Lower.com Field. In the one, the Crew’s xG edge was 3.6-1.1 and, in the other, 3-0.6.
Those numbers speak of dominance, even if one of the results was a draw. But let’s put them aside and look at four games that were played after the Crew’s roster was retooled during the summer transfer window:
As the Crew bid adieu to the great Lucas Zelarayan, they put a 4-1 thumping on Club America in a Leagues Cup game July 31. (Club America is currently in first place, and pulling away, in Liga MX).
On Aug. 20, the Crew ran FC Cincinnati back to Porkopolis in a 3-0 romp. (Cincinnati went on to win the Supporters’ Shield and is the favorite to win MLS Cup.)
On Oct. 7, the Crew conceded a goal in stoppage time and had to settle for a 1-1 tie with Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
On Nov. 1, in Game 1 of their playoff series with Atlanta, the Crew cruised to a 2-0 victory.
In each case, the Crew had an xG superiority of one full goal. That’s domineering stuff. Three of the four games were home games for the Crew.
The Crew (67 goals in 34 regular-season games) and Atlanta (66) are the two highest-scoring teams in the league, and both are reliant upon possession. But they go about their business in different ways.
“Atlanta has a lot of players who are just really good on the ball,” McKinley said. “Atlanta has a team full of dribblers; that’s what they recruit. The Crew are obviously good on the ball, and they can survive that way – but they’re not trying to dribble everyone, all the time.
“Crew players are willing to take risks to make passes. Lucas was a dribbler, but he could also make those passes. I don’t think Cucho (Hernandez) lacks that ability to dribble, but he’s much more of a creator. One reason I think they brought in (wingback Julian) Gressel is to get that on the wings, in the final third.”
When McKinley is asked what he thinks all of this means for Sunday, he doesn’t use statistics.
“If (the Crew) play their game, they’re going to be fine,” McKinley said. “Obviously, they’re not going to do (in Game 3) the same thing they did in Game 1, when Thiago Almada wasn’t available for Atlanta. They’re not playing on turf, which always throws things a little off. If they get Nancy’s system running, they’re going to be fine, especially at home. In MLS, being at home is the biggest thing.”
If the Crew win Game 3, they’ll play a knockout conference semifinal at Orlando. If the Crew advance to the conference final, they’ll probably get Cincinnati in Porkopolis. And if the Crew can win the conference, Columbus will host the MLS Cup final.
Is that looking too far ahead? Absolutely. But the overarching theme is this: The only chance the Crew have of surviving and advancing is to play their game, to strive for more possession, more shots, more goals. They must remain true to themselves until they are eliminated, or until they lift the Cup.
Their campaign continues Sunday night. There’s nothing like a Game 3.
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Winner of Crew-Atlanta will move on to next round of MLS playoffs
