We answer Tennessee football questions about October schedule, receivers, Texas A&M, Georgia
Tennessee football fans feel better about the Vols’ season, but the October outlook is still hazy.
So they want to know how optimistic they should be.
Beating South Carolina is one thing. But an SEC winning streak is a much tougher task.
The No. 18 Vols (4-1, 1-1 SEC) are off this week. They’ll play Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0) on Oct. 14 (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) at Neyland Stadium.
While UT prepares for a midseason gauntlet, fans submitted about 100 questions via our free Vols text message group. Let’s answer some of them in an off-week mailbag.
What is your revamped Vols outlook for October?
It hasn’t changed much. In the preseason, I picked the Vols to go 2-2 in October with losses to Texas A&M and Alabama (and 9-3 overall).
On our UT podcast last week, I picked the Vols to go 3-1 in October. If they do that, a 9-3 record is still in reach.
UT’s next three opponents are better than South Carolina, but those teams are hard to gauge. Texas A&M is better than expected, but that game is at home. Alabama is worse than expected, or at least limited because of its quarterback issues. And Kentucky may be better than expected.
A 2-2 or 3-1 record in October wouldn’t surprise me, but 4-0 or 1-3 would.
Does UT need the home or neutral environment to win?
It’s not that simple, but you’re on the right track.
Under coach Josh Heupel, the Vols are 7-2 in SEC home games but 4-5 in SEC road games.
On the road, they beat Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt and LSU. Those first three stadiums aren’t among the loudest in the SEC. LSU is the exception, but that was an 11 a.m. start time and the crowd was never in the game after the Tigers fumbled the opening kickoff.
SEC road losses were to Florida (twice), Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. Florida and South Carolina have among the loudest stadiums in the SEC, but No. 1 Georgia was louder than both for that UT game. And Alabama was No. 4 when the Vols lost in Tuscaloosa.
The takeaway: UT is very hard to beat at home. And UT is hard to beat on the road unless you're a top 10 team or have one of the loudest environments in college football, or both.
Can offense score enough to win these upcoming SEC games?
Yes, but it’ll take creative game plans and top-flight execution.
The return of center Cooper Mays improves the run game, pass protection and offensive efficiently. But the season-ending injury to wide receiver Bru McCoy could be costly.
McCoy could be replaced by slender slot receiver Dont’e Thornton, redshirt freshman Kaleb Webb, redshirt freshman Chas Nimrod or true freshman Nathan Leacock. None are physical enough to get off press-man coverage or block defenders as well as McCoy.
So expect opposing defenses to play man coverage to challenge wide receivers and load the tackle box to stop the run. UT receivers must win one-on-one matchups, and quarterback Joe Milton must complete passes downfield.
How does Texas A&M match up with the Vols?
Pretty well. Texas A&M is a serious threat to win the SEC West.
The Aggies are stout on defense, especially in the front seven. Defensive lineman Walter Nolen, the former five-star recruit from Powell, is a handful. And they’re No. 3 in the nation in third-down defense, which could pose problems for UT’s offense.
Texas A&M’s offense has a strong ground game. And quarterback Max Johnson, who took over for injured starter Conner Weigman, has played well.
UT will need to take control early and let its home crowd affect the game.
Has UT developed young receivers to replace Bru McCoy?
Webb and Nimrod are on track, but this is earlier than they were projected to play. They’re only redshirt freshmen and came to UT in the same class as Squirrel White. Leacock is talented, as well.
The bigger question is whether UT landed a transfer wide receiver worthy of starting. The jury is still out on Thornton, an Oregon transfer.
In 2021, Mississippi State transfer JaVonta Payton was a starter and dangerous deep threat. In 2022, McCoy, a Southern Cal transfer, was a starter and the team’s second-leading receiver.
UT will add a transfer wide receiver every year. It can’t afford to miss on that evaluation.
Why does Cooper Mays make such a difference for offense?
For starters, Mays is an All-SEC caliber center. His replacements, Ollie Lane and Dayne Davis, were backups who hadn’t played center. So Mays is better at his position in every way.
But besides the obvious, Mays helps the offense run more efficiently. He makes the offensive line calls. He’s accustomed to watching the line judge after each play to get the offense to the football quickly.
And when Mays comes to the sideline, he can communicate with offensive line coach Glen Elarbee about what the defense is doing and what adjustments are needed.
Am I crazy or can the Vols beat Georgia in Neyland Stadium?
No, you’re not crazy. UT has flaws, but so does Georgia. Neither team is as good as last season.
Georgia is still the favorite to win that game. But the home crowd at Neyland Stadium should minimize that advantage.
That being said, let’s see how the Vols evolve between now and then. They could be 9-1 and vying for the SEC East title, or they could be 6-4 and vying for a spoiler win and a mid-tier bowl bid.
Most likely, they’ll be somewhere in between. But there’s a lot of football before Nov. 18.
What is Joe Milton’s completion percentage on third down, red zone?
Milton completes 46.3% of his passes on third down, ranked 15th in the SEC. He completes 72.5% on first down and 67.4% on second down, which is ranked seventh and 11th, respectively.
And Milton’s passer rating follows a similar trend, so there’s an obvious drop-off on third down.
Milton completes 54.2% of his passes in the red zone, ranked 10th in the SEC. And his passer rating in the red zone is ranked 11th. So there’s room for improvement there, as well.
Will Milton ever be able to run the offense efficiently?
I think that’s actually one of his strengths.
If we didn’t know about Milton’s immense size (6-5, 235), athleticism and arm strength, we’d perhaps see him as a game manager based on his 2023 performance. That can be a compliment or a criticism.
Coaches say he’s been a good decision maker. He’s usually gotten the offense into the right run play or pass protection, and he’s often passed the ball where he should. He's misfired on some downfield passes, but he's accurate on short passes from the pocket.
Why have special teams been terrible?
I think you’re judging special teams by the worst moments without recognizing the big picture and recent improvement.
Granted, there have been costly mental mistakes on special teams, most recently allowing South Carolina’s successful fake punt. But there's been more good than bad.
Jackson Ross shanked punts in the season opener, but he’s been very effective since then. UT has allowed the second fewest yards per punt return in the SEC.
Josh Turbyville has kicked four kickoffs out of bounds, resulting in penalties. But 79% of his kickoffs have gone for touchbacks compared to 41% for UT last season.
Punt returner Dee Williams is ranked No. 5 in the nation in yards-per-return average. Placekicker Charles Campbell has made 7 of 8 field goals and 21 of 21 PAT kicks. And UT has blocked three kicks, second most in the nation.
Does UT have more injuries than other teams? It seems like it.
No. Fans often think that because they’re focused on their team’s misfortune rather than opponents. It’s human nature. But injuries pile up at every program.
Case in point, UT had fewer injuries than South Carolina for last week’s game.
UT was without Thornton, offensive guard Andrej Karic, safety Christian Charles and linebacker Keenan Pili. And McCoy suffered a season-ending injury.
That seems like a rash of injuries. But Mays, defensive tackle Elijah Simmons and cornerback Doneiko Slaughter returned from injuries in the same game. And all the injured players except for McCoy are expected to return.
South Carolina had seven offensive linemen out, including four to season-ending injuries. Star wide receiver Juice Wells has been out most of the season. Another wide receiver, two edge rushers and multiple defensive backs also have missed games due to injuries for the Gamecocks.
Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game. Be thankful that some of UT’s injured players can recover during the off week.
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football: How UT Vols, Joe Milton match up vs Texas A&M
