Anatomy of a Play: How Josh Allen fooled the Patriots for an easy touchdown

The last time we saw Bills quarterback Josh Allen before the 2020 season, the then-second-year man from Wyoming was barfing all over himself in a wild-card loss to the Texans. The development from then to now is absolutely startling. Allen started the 2020 season ripping man coverage to bits, then had a couple weeks where he struggled against zone coverage and late coverage switches, and then he figured that out and became a legitimate MVP candidate.

Against the Patriots in a 38-9 Week 16 win, Allen was absolutely incendiary, completing 27 of 36 passes for 327 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions, adding 35 rushing yards on four attempts for good measure. As much as anyone else on the team, Allen has become a reason you don’t want any part of the Bills in the playoffs, and his relationship with receiver Stefon Diggs (who burned top-tier Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson for two touchdowns) has become Must-See TV.

Diggs caught three of Allen’s four touchdown targets, but for the purposes of Allen’s development, let’s focus on the four-yard touchdown pass Allen threw to tight end Lee Smith with 5:32 left in the first half. One of the reasons Allen has come so far so fast recently is the efforts of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who has done a brilliant job in scheming Allen to success in all kinds of ways. Allen had better enjoy Daboll while he can, because Daboll is probably going to be an NFL head coach in the next month or so.

To praise Daboll is not to minimize Allen’s efforts — on the contrary, when a coach wants to install an advanced passing offense, he has to have a total mental buy-in from his quarterback, or none of the playbook matters. And on Smith’s touchdown, you saw how Allen is now able to influence a defense with pre-snap motion and run perception.

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky made me aware of the nuances of this play, so let’s start there.

Great breakdown from Dan as usual, and I’ll add a few points.

First, you could imagine Daboll holding this concept in his quiver until he got the right matchup. If this was one or both of the McCourty brothers as the pointmen, maybe this doesn’t happen, as Devin and Jason McCourty have been around the block enough in this defense to know what’s up. But the “sucker” to the front side here — the guy Allen has to convince that a run is coming — is rookie safety Kyle Dugger. Dugger is a good player, but he’s still learning the nuances of NFL defense, and specially NFL defense in the red zone. And the backside guy who gets fooled is veteran safety Adrian Phillips — a smart player, but a player in his first year with the Patriots after six years in the Chargers’ zone-heavier schemes. Experience matters.

Second, there’s more to this play than just the run fake and all its accouterments. The Bills run crossers with receiver Gabe Davis from the left side, and tight end Dawson Knox from the right side, to congest the middle of the field. With that, Allen has Diggs to the front side against Jackson, and Smith to the back side with a cow pasture around him. Either way Allen decides to go, it’s a walk-in touchdown. The Bills simply overwhelmed New England with numbers, confusion, and spacing, and any time you can out-coach a Bill Belichick defense, it’s time for a refreshing beverage.

At 12-3, and with a tough matchup against the vastly improved Dolphins defense in their regular-season finale, the Bills then head into the postseason as perhaps the one NFL team without a major discernible flaw. Allen’s development — and his alliance with Daboll — could put this team over the top when it matters the most.