Analyzing Francisco Alvarez: Scouts and former players discuss Mets catcher's start to 2023 MLB season
The numbers say that Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez has been overmatched offensively during his eight big league games since being called up. He’s 4-for-27 with nine strikeouts, no walks, and one extra-base hit -- a home run that he tomahawked on a neck-high fastball from a submariner, of all things.
The ugly start is hardly a shock considering that the defensive responsibilities alone in the big leagues for a 21-year-old catcher can be overwhelming, especially for a rookie the Mets thought needed more seasoning in Triple-A before Omar Narvaez’s calf injury changed the equation.
Yet if anything, there is a sense that Alvarez has been better than expected defensively, especially in terms of his set-up, his receiving, and his pitch-framing, which ranks in the 76th percentile on the MLB Statcast rankings.
On the other hand, he’s also 0-for-15 throwing out base-stealers, despite a strong arm that is supposed to be a strength.
All in all, it’s only a snapshot of what lies ahead for the Mets' top prospect, yet I thought it was worth getting some expert opinions on Alvarez’s progress.
And since nobody knows catchers like catchers, I asked three of them for an early read: Former big leaguers Todd Zeile, who works as SNY’s pre game and post game analyst, and Anthony Recker, now an MLB Network analyst; plus a major league scout who caught in the minors for several years.
Perhaps most significantly, all three of them see Alvarez’s early struggles offensively as a practically inevitable learning curve. The scout, the only one who has seen Alvarez in person in the minors, felt the strongest about how quickly the young catcher should start hitting.
"If he gets consistent playing time I believe the power will play fairly quickly," the scout said. "I saw him enough to know he’s got a good approach, he lets the ball travel and likes to go the other way. He has natural power to right field that very few guys have.
"So far he’s just looked way too geeked-up in his at-bats. He just needs to settle in and he’ll start hitting."
With that as a starting point, I felt like the best way to present the insights of Zeile, Recker, and the scout were to give you their opinions in as much full context as I could within reason -- first on Alvarez’s defense, then his offense.
DEFENSE
ZEILE: "The first game I saw him catch I said on the air that I thought he looked stiff, setting up on one knee in the middle of the strike zone for (Carlos) Carrasco. He wasn’t moving or giving good targets, or really taking control of the game. I want the catcher to have a feel for all of that stuff, for firing up the pitcher when he needs to, for really taking charge.
"With each start since I’ve seen him look more comfortable doing that. I’ve seen the progression. It doesn’t mean he’s on his way to being Pudge (Ivan Rodriguez), or what have you, but I’ve seen a level of comfort and confidence to where you’re not really noticing him back there, which is a good thing.
"I think having a presence as a catcher is very important. Pitchers are a fickle breed and they want any edge they can get. Part of that is feeling they are in the same rhythm with the catcher back there, and they can rely on the guy behind the plate to see things maybe they’re not seeing. You heard it from Joey Lucchesi, how much he gave credit to Alvarez for being on the same page all night. Francisco was very demonstrative about where he set up, where he wanted pitches thrown. I thought all of that was a really good sign.
"The throwing needs work. He’s got a very strong arm but he’s in that kneeling position, because they want him to get that low strike called. So he tends to pop up and throw instead of come forward and throw. It’s caused a lot of his throws to be high. But he’s agile and quick enough to get better."
RECKER: "He’s been OK. I wouldn’t say he’s been good, by any means. I’m not trying to rip him at all. I just see a young guy who has some things to learn. Not so much physical -- I don’t see any physical limitations yet. What I see is the need to stay focused for every pitch for nine innings, which I know for me was the hardest thing to learn as a young catcher.
"That’s shown up in a couple of wild pitches that have gotten away, and some pitch-calling at times that has been questionable. He called for a 2-1 changeup from Drew Smith in a game-deciding spot, and that’s Drew’s second-best pitch against a lefty. His fastball is a much better pitch there, so that’s not a call you want to make there.
"But that stuff is really more nitpicking than anything. It’s impressive to me that at 21 he’s been able to hold his own defensively. That’s where I’d agree he’s been better than maybe people expected."
SCOUT: "I don’t think he’s ever going to be better than average behind the plate. He’s a bit mechanical in his movements and his pop-times (for throws to bases) aren’t great. But if he hits the way I think he will, his catching won’t be an issue."
OFFENSE
ZEILE: "I just think he’s trying to do a little too much. He wants to make a big impression offensively because he knows that’s what everybody expects from him. So right away he was overswinging on balls that he was late on -- balls he’d normally take to right field.
"Then he started selling out because he doesn’t want to get beat on the fastball, and he’s rolling over when pitchers start throwing him off-speed stuff. It’s typical of a young hitter but you can see the violent, quick swing that he has. You can see he’s going to hit for power."
RECKER: "He’s definitely got some holes. But everybody does. He needs to adjust. So far he’s struggled to catch up to high velo, especially in. But he does like to go the other way with power, so I think he’ll learn to stay off some of those pitches.
"Francisco is just so young, it’s going to take some time. But I don’t think he’s looked physically overmatched. Mentally there are some things he’ll only learn in the big leagues. It’s hard, but you want someone who can work through adversity and make adjustments.
"Maybe it is too early for him to be here, I don’t know for sure. But I know the Mets aren’t going to get .300, 30 (home runs) and 100 (RBI) from (Tomas) Nido or Narvaez. This kid just might do that.
"So if it was up to me I’d be running him out there most days and let him get the reps he needs, because if he’s got the right mindset and desire -- and it seems like he does --he could look like a vastly different player a month from now."
SCOUT: "The injury to Narvaez was a blessing in disguise for the Mets. They’re a really good team but they need a little more pop, especially the lower part of their lineup.
"Everybody loves (Brett) Baty, so he should help them, but Alvarez’s power could be a big piece to help put them over the top. That’s why they need to let him play, give him 150 at-bats to see if he’s ready to handle big league pitching. I think he is. But he needs to prove it."
